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CRITICAL STATE
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The World INKSTICK
If you read just one thing …
… read about what counterterrorism cops get up to.

After 9/11, the rush to draft state and local law enforcement into the war on terror led to the establishment of “fusion centers'' around  the US. In theory, the centers would serve as information clearinghouses to allow for better collaboration between federal and local authorities on counterterrorism cases. Twenty years later, the fusion centers are still going strong with 79 in operation, working with single-minded dedication to provide all levels of law enforcement the crucial information they need to prevent all manner of attacks. At least, that’s the theory. In reality, according to documents obtained by The Nation, the fusion centers are largely justifying their continued existence by producing intelligence reports on whatever random things happen to pique their interest. For example, two different Florida fusion centers fused their analytical power to produce a “Joint Intelligence Bulletin'' on a “Cookie Thief.” One in Washington state carefully tracked a guy who was illegally letting oil run out of his garage as he worked on his car. The Washington, DC, fusion center has probably the most cringe-worthy record. Analysts there wrote multiple reports on viral TikTok accounts, but managed to miss both the threat of COVID-19 (a January 2020 report was titled “Novel Coronavirus Unlikely to Impact the District at This Time”) and the Jan. 6 attack on the US Capitol.

Bolivia’s COVID-19 response

A research note in The Lancet highlights the problems of COVID-19 response in countries with a high proportion of workers employed in the informal economy. In Bolivia, over 70% of workers have no contract and are not registered for state social security, making it difficult for the government to assist or regulate them during the pandemic. Even a cash transfer program directed at these workers backfired — because the government had no way to distribute the money electronically, crowds gathered at physical distribution points, increasing the threat of contagion.

The government’s failure to find a way to connect with these workers has contributed to huge inequalities in the effect of the virus. COVID-19 deaths in poor departments of the country have increased orders of magnitude faster than in rich departments where formal employment is more common.

The researchers recommend that the Bolivian government expand its partnership with informal worker unions to better reach at-risk workers.

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Facebook moderators go public

The people employed by Facebook to sort through the worst content on the internet have long complained about their treatment by the tech giant, but have been reluctant to come forward for fear of retaliation. Last week, that began to change, as a group of Ireland-based moderators met with Irish Deputy Prime Minister Leo Varadkar, and then held a press conference to highlight their poor working conditions.

Moderators — the people who make the internet safe to use — often complain of the mental health toll from constantly absorbing hate speech, graphic violence, sexual abuse and other horrors people post online, for little pay and even less job security.

The moderators also have COVID-19 concerns, as they have been ordered to return to office work while most of Facebook’s regular employees have been allowed to work from home.

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• • •
DEEP DIVE
Climate and human security, Part I

When the Journal of Peace Research dedicates a whole special issue to the security implications of climate change, Critical State is required to cover it. Those are just the rules. This week and next, we’ll dig into articles from the special issue that increase our understanding of how a warming climate will change patterns of political violence.

A commonly understood consequence of climate change is mass migration. Changes in climate conditions and natural disasters force people to leave their homes, often relocating to urban areas where support networks and employment opportunities are greater. But you can’t hide from climate change by moving to a city. Weather fluctuations, food insecurity and political instability have a way of wending their ways into urban life, posing continued threats to climate refugees who are trying to build anew.

A large research team from the University of Exeter and the University of Dhaka came together to study the ways climate change endangers urban climate refugees by looking at communities of migrants in Chattogram, Bangladesh. Bangladesh has been rapidly urbanizing for years, and many of its rural areas are prone to increased flooding driven by climate change. As a result, large communities of climate refugees already live in Bangladeshi cities, including Chattogram. Its population has grown 3.6% a year for the past 20 years, but a lack of social service expansion has left many of the newcomers living in slums on the city’s periphery.

Researchers ran a survey of 447 migrants in four migrant communities, measuring responses against a Human Security Index (HSI) they developed to understand the threats urban migrants face in their daily life. The survey asked questions designed to gauge respondents’ physical and mental health, economic status, exposure to environmental shocks, and perceptions of physical security, along with demographic information and details about their migration. After the survey, researchers engaged some respondents in extended dialogues about their experiences, including the respondents taking two weeks to document their security concerns in photographs before discussing them with researchers.

The survey found that, despite the rising pace of natural disasters pushing people from rural areas into the city, mechanisms for integrating migrants into urban economic life have not kept pace. Instead of migrant communities growing in security over time as they establish themselves in the urban fabric of Chattogram, survey respondents said their new communities were subject to continued economic exploitation. Indeed, migrants who had lived in the Chattogram slums for six to 10 years scored significantly lower HSI values than migrants who arrived in the past six months, and felt more trapped in their new homes.

Part of the issue is that migrants in Chattogram are subject to many of the same environmental threats in their urban lives that they fled in rural areas in the first place. Flooding is rampant, and the resulting property damage and health risks threaten migrants no matter how long they’ve lived in Chattogram. Photos taken by respondents capture the scale of the problem, showing roads that become rivers after rain and tides from actual rivers that flood living rooms. The environmental threats mix with economic exploitation to further immiserate the migrants. One woman reported that she asked her landlord to elevate her home so that it would flood less and he told her that her options were to accept the current situation or move out. “We cannot help living here,” she said. “We do not have the ability to move.”

The example of Chattogram demonstrates the human security costs that arise from a failure to address climate-driven migration. Urbanization is often a least-worst option for people fleeing climate threats, but moving to a city neither protects people from climate threats nor means they will gain the economic resources to improve their own climate resilience. Instead, cities that are built to exploit migrant communities can continue to do so for long periods, especially as climate threats increase and migrants’ other options disappear. Political change is the only path to increasing living standards for climate refugees.

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• • •
SHOW US THE RECEIPTS

Rebecca Kanthor reported on the return of Wuhan’s rock music scene as the city recovers from COVID-19. Bands and venues were put under major financial stress by the lockdown in the city, but shows are starting back up again, and travel restrictions on foreign bands mean that local acts are getting more opportunities. The scene is still fragile, however, as authorities in cities across China have been quick to shut down shows at the first sign of an uptick in COVID-19 cases.

Emma Claire Foley interpreted last week’s dispiriting announcement from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists that the organization’s Doomsday Clock would remain at 100 seconds to midnight — the highest level of alarm about potential global catastrophe in the clock’s history. The clock was moved to its current position as a result of the Trump administration’s volatility and poor record on nuclear security and disarmament issues. Yet it remains in place even after Trump has left office because the lack of controls on presidential use of nuclear weapons and the damage Trump did to the global arms control regime continue into the Biden administration. The recent extension of the New START treaty is a step in the right direction, but the clock will likely stay put until real progress is made on nuclear and climate issues.

Rupa Shenoy outlined the debate between those who want to expand anti-terrorism laws to counter domestic right-wing security threats and those who see the proposed laws as a major threat to civil liberties. Advocates claim that creating a category of crime called “domestic terrorism” will assist in prosecuting people involved in actions like the Jan. 6 attack on the US Capitol. Critics, however, argue that existing laws are more than adequate for producing convictions in such cases. They also point out that anti-terrorism laws have always been deployed disproportionately against communities of color — a trend that new laws are unlikely to buck.

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• • •
WELL PLAYED

An artifact from the United Nations teen outreach campaign that introduced Dog Hammer-Skull as the organization’s recruiting mascot.

The Salisbury Cathedral’s stature as a destination increases by the day.

What’s so alarming about this (besides the general ridiculousness of the US classification system) is how long the redaction goes on for. How specific could Pompeo’s pizza order possibly be? Is there an extra paragraph justifying pineapple as the official fruit of swagger? It’s mystifying.

All military parades should include fun facts about the units like a dog show.

This is going to go viral as a TikTok dance called “The Coup.”

For readers in the northeast US, don’t forget to enjoy the snow!

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Critical State is written by Sam Ratner and is a collaboration between The World and Inkstick Media.

The World is a weekday public radio show and podcast on global issues, news and insights from PRX and GBH.

With an online magazine and podcast featuring a diversity of expert voices, Inkstick Media is “foreign policy for the rest of us.”

Critical State is made possible in part by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

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