Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
February 2, 2021
Top of the Agenda
UN Security Council Meets in Wake of Myanmar Coup
The UN Security Council will meet today (AFP, AP, Reuters) to discuss a response to the Myanmar military’s seizure of power, including measures to promote the Burmese people’s will and ensure the release of civil society leaders. The United States and European countries have expressed concern over the coup, with U.S. President Joe Biden threatening new sanctions. However, China and Russia have downplayed the takeover (CBS, AFP) and, as permanent members, could block Security Council actions. 

Banks reopened and people commuted to work today in Myanmar’s largest city, Yangon, but uncertainty looms (CNN). Deposed leader Aung San Suu Kyi is detained at her official residence, according to a spokesperson, while around four hundred members of parliament are reportedly being held in a guesthouse in the capital of Naypyidaw. The military junta, which alleges fraud in the country’s November elections, has begun installing replacement officials and declared a one-year state of emergency.
Analysis
“The Biden administration’s policy cupboard, though not bare, is fairly limited, given modest U.S. leverage over Myanmar and the fact that Myanmar’s neighbors mostly seem willing to live with the coup,” CFR’s Joshua Kurlantzick writes.

“A coup will be counterproductive for the military in many ways. Governments around the world will likely now apply or extend sanctions on members of the military,” the University of South Australia’s Adam Simpson and the University of Tasmania’s Nicholas Farrelly write for the Conversation.
Think Global Health Celebrates One Year
CFR’s Think Global Health celebrates its one-year anniversary in unprecedented times. Check out the website for a look at how changes in health are reshaping economies, societies, and people’s lives.

Pacific Rim
China Warns U.S. Not to Cross a ‘Red Line’
Yang Jiechi, Beijing’s top foreign policy official, warned Washington against crossing a “red line” created by issues including the COVID-19 response, Hong Kong, and Xinjiang. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken criticized China’s record (WSJ) on these topics in an interview that aired hours earlier.

Japan: Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga announced today (Japan Times) that the state of emergency in ten prefectures will be extended through March 7 in a bid to curb the spread of the coronavirus.

South and Central Asia
Twitter Suspends Accounts, Reportedly Under Pressure From Indian Government
The social media company suspended some 250 accounts (Guardian) for more than 12 hours after India’s Ministry of Home Affairs said they were inciting violence, according to an unnamed government official. Many of the accounts had allegedly used a hashtag related to mass protests over controversial agriculture laws.

Middle East and North Africa
Israel, Kosovo Establish Ties in U.S.-Backed Deal
Israel and Kosovo established formal diplomatic relations (Al-Monitor) in a virtual ceremony, a move initially announced in September by former U.S. President Donald J. Trump. Kosovo agreed to establish an embassy in Jerusalem and will be the first Muslim-majority country to do so.
 
Iran: Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told CNN that the United States has a limited amount of time to return to the nuclear agreement, which it left in 2018. He also said the European Union’s foreign affairs minister, Josep Borrell, could “choreograph” U.S. and Iranian actions on the deal. Yesterday, Iran announced that it successfully tested (Al Jazeera) a type of rocket that the United States fears it could use to launch nuclear warheads.

This CFR Backgrounder explains the Iran nuclear deal.

Sub-Saharan Africa
UN: Twenty Thousand Refugees Are Missing in Ethiopia’s Tigray
The United Nations said that up to twenty thousand refugees, most of them Eritreans, who fled camps in Ethiopia’s war-torn Tigray region are missing (Al Jazeera). Conflict in Tigray has displaced tens of thousands and halted aid delivery since erupting in November.
 
South Africa: The number of rhinos poached for their horns in South Africa fell by 33 percent last year compared to 2019, according to a report by the country’s national park agency. COVID-19 lockdowns were partially responsible (News24) for the decline.

Europe
Russia’s Navalny Faces Years in Prison
Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny is in court today (Moscow Times) and faces years behind bars for violating the terms of a 2014 suspended sentence while he was in Germany recuperating from a near-fatal poisoning from a nerve agent.
 
UK: Officials detected eleven cases of a South African coronavirus variant that apparently occurred through community transmission. They will now test (Guardian) tens of thousands of people in a door-to-door campaign to stop the variant’s spread.
 
This CFR In Brief looks at the dangers of COVID-19 variants.

Americas
Deadly Attack Rocks El Salvador Ahead of Election
Salvadoran Attorney General Raul Melara urged the public to avoid violence (LAHT) and met with political party leaders after two people were killed and five others injured in a Sunday attack on opposition supporters in the capital of San Salvador. The country will hold elections on February 28.

Brazil: In a political shake-up, lawmakers supported by President Jair Bolsonaro won the presidency of the country’s Senate and the speakership of its lower house. The victories strengthen Bolsonaro’s position (FT), but he could still face opposition in Congress.

United States
Biden Reportedly Creating Task Force on Reuniting Families Separated at U.S.-Mexico Border
President Biden will sign an executive order today to create such a task force, Politico reports. Biden is also expected to sign executive orders that initiate reviews of policies requiring asylum seekers with pending cases to remain in Mexico and allowing the government to refuse green cards to people who have used or will likely use public assistance.
 
This CFR Backgrounder looks at the U.S. detention of child migrants.
This Day in History: February 2, 1971
After seizing power from Uganda’s independence leader, Milton Obote, on January 25, Idi Amin declares himself president and begins what becomes an eight-year rule of terror in the East African country.
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