Data Protection Day 2021 - Privacy remains crucial during COVID-19
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Using Big Data to Forecast Migration
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A tale of high expectations, promising results and a long road ahead
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Jasper Tjaden, Andres Arau, Muertizha Nuermaimaiti, Imge Cetin, Eduardo Acostamadiedo, Marzia Rango
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Berlin – “Data is the new oil,” they say. "Big Data" is even bigger. The “data revolution” will contribute to solving societies’ problems and help governments adopt better policies and run more effective programs. In the migration field, digital trace data are seen as potentially powerful tools to improve migration management (visa application; “smart borders,” asylum decision and geographic allocation of asylum seekers to facilitate integration, etc.).
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IOM enumerators carry out door to door assessments in partnership with the Lebanese Red Cross in areas affected by the 2020 Beirut explosions to help the humanitarian community better understand community needs, then plan and provide assistance.
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Forecasting migration is a particular area where Big Data excites policy makers and data nerds (like us) alike. If there is one way big data has already made a difference, it is how its ability to bring different actors together – data scientists, business people and policy makers – endure viewing countless slides of numbers, tables and graphs. Traditional migration data sources, like censuses, administrative data and surveys, rarely manage to generate similar levels of excitement.
Many European Union (EU) Member States now are heavily investing in ways to forecast migration. Relatively large numbers of asylum seekers in 2014, 2015 and 2016 strained the capacity of many EU governments. Better forecasting tools are meant to help governments prepare in advance.
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