Washington, D.C. (January 20, 2021) – An analysis by the Center for Immigration Studies examines the factors that will impact the fate of the amnesty bill, reported to provide amnesty to 11 million-plus aliens, that the Biden administration will soon send to Congress.
Andrew Arthur, resident fellow in law and policy and author of the article, writes, “There are many factors at play in determining how likely the new president will be in pushing through his amnesty plan for some 11 million-plus aliens. Speed will likely be the most critical, but that could be impeded by the work of congressional Republicans, and the principles of Sen. Joe Manchin.”
The scope and success of the bill will be impacted by the following:
- There are many factors that will determine the success or failure of that plan — and what the final product will look like — but the speed at which it moves through the legislative process will likely be the key one.
- Democrats hold a slight majority in the House, and the Senate is evenly split, effectively giving control of that chamber to the Democrats. The majority of Democrats are likely to favor a large amnesty plan with few if any needed enforcement reforms, but many in the House could face significant reelection challenges.
- Passing that plan through "regular order" — by which the legislation is subject to committee hearings and mark-ups — will likely slow the passage of that bill, but is more likely to result in legislation that has popular support and contains key reforms and compromises. House Democrats who are in vulnerable seats in the next election would probably strongly favor that result.
- Bills can be passed through the House through regular order on simple majorities, but the filibuster rule in the Senate means that stand-alone amnesty legislation will require 60 votes, and therefore would be dependent on Republican support.
- Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) has stated unequivocally that he opposes doing away with the filibuster. Whether he sticks to his principles on the issue will determine whether the amnesty bill will need to meet that 60-vote margin.
- The Senate can pass that bill, however, through the budget "reconciliation" process, but that will require linking the amnesty to government revenues and spending. Sen. Manchin, a Democrat who represents a largely Republican state, may oppose that maneuver.
- A further economic downturn could imperil the prospects for that bill. The unemployment rate in December was 6.7 percent, and more than 56 million working-age Americans were not in the labor force. Tens of thousands of businesses have closed permanently as a result of the pandemic.
- Popular support for legalizing millions of aliens unlawfully present and allowing them to compete with those currently in the legal workforce may not be that strong, and would likely fall if the economy does not reverse itself, or if it gets worse.
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