The tactical debate over whether President Biden and congressional Democrats should try to win Republican votes to enact his $1.9 trillion emergency stimulus package (which would require 60 Senate votes to pass) or try instead to pass it directly through budget reconciliation (which would require only 51 Senate votes) isn’t really tactical at all. It’s strategic. The strategic question it raises is whether the Democrats should allow the Republicans to kill measures that are both necessary
and popular before the Democrats then resort to trying to pass such measures with only 51 votes (which they can do once through budget reconciliation, or more than once through suspension of the 60-vote cloture requirement for individual pieces of legislation—a suspension that also requires just 51 votes). My belief is that on matters other than budget reconciliation, they won’t even amass the 51 votes to suspend the supermajority cloture requirement unless they subject their bills to the 60-vote hurdle first. It will be only through demonstrated McConnell-esque obstruction that they
may be able to convince their more conservative Democratic colleagues, like West Virginia’s Joe Manchin, to agree to suspend the filibuster on particular necessary pieces of legislation. And if Manchin & Co. (which includes centrist Democratic senators like Colorado’s John Hickenlooper and Montana’s Jon Tester) agree to suspend it on several bills, maybe they can be brought around to deep-six the 60-vote rule altogether, in deference as well to the obscure doctrine of majority rule. If, as I suspect, not enough Republicans vote for the Biden stimulus and the Democrats push it through
in their budget reconciliation bill, how will that affect its provision to raise the minimum wage to $15? The conventional wisdom is that the provision isn’t really budgetary and thus can’t be part of the bill. That matter will be adjudicated by the House and Senate parliamentarians, who I presume will be the appointees of Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, respectively. I hope those parliamentary sages consider two arguments in favor of its inclusion: First, that a wage hike is just as stimulative to a badly damaged economy as the federal government’s direct provision of funds; and second, that raising wages will directly affect federal budgets by increasing tax revenues and reducing the number of poor Americans who must rely on such federal programs as food stamps and Medicaid. But, to return to my initial point on strategy, I’m all in favor of letting Republicans vote down bills that ensure at least rudimentary safeguards and decent living standards before the Democrats turn to the 51-vote route. Letting Republicans define themselves with memorable clarity is the least we can do for them.
|