Yes, sadly there are more deaths than usual for this time of year
Regarding overall mortality this winter, pathologist Dr John Lee claimed in an interview with talkRADIO last week that we are within the range of what normally happens this time of year—and even below the long-term average.
He also suggested that we should not compare this year to the five-year average (even though this is a standard practice), because he claims that mortality was especially low in the last five years.
This is not correct. According to Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures for England and Wales, the death rate towards the end of 2020 was about 20% above the five-year average, and 5% above the 27-year average (when adjusted for population size).
Aside from his statistics being incorrect, Dr Lee’s argument to discount the previous five-year average as a point of comparison ignores the fact that, over time, populations change, medical technology improves and public behaviour alters. This may well contribute to a lower expected death rate, which would make the lower rate of the past five years the new norm.
Journalists and commentators have also claimed that recent Public Health England (PHE) reports showed no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality—despite PHE itself saying this was down to “delays in reporting over Christmas”.
PHE added that “the number of excess deaths has been significantly higher than average in each of the last 16 weeks.”
For months, we have seen repeated claims that mortality rates this winter are comparable to those in “normal” years.
The more a harmful false claim is repeated, the more it gets believed. And in the middle of a pandemic, inaccuracies can put lives at risk.
As independent fact checkers, we rely on your support to challenge repeated false claims in the media and make sure people get the accuracy they deserve.
But bad information continues to spread fast and lives are being lost every day.
Can you help call out inaccurate journalism when it's never been more important?
Last week, Ken Marsh, the chair of the Metropolitan Police Federation, said on LBC radio that anyone exempt from wearing a mask for medical reasons must have written clarification that that is the case.
But on its website, the Government says that those with an age, health or disability reason for not wearing a face covering do not "routinely need to show any written evidence of this," adding that "carrying an exemption card or badge is a personal choice and is not required by law."
In response, the Police Federation said: “From policing’s perspective—as we have stated—the onus should be on those who are not wearing a mask to prove that they are exempt from doing so.”
So although there is no legal requirement for people to carry proof of exemption, the police may ask someone to leave the relevant place and/or issue a fixed penalty notice if this isn’t provided upon request.
Last week, one eagle-eyed Facebook user spotted that a photo of a British woman receiving a coronavirus vaccine later turned up in a South African newspaper, which “claimed” she was actually a 78-year-old local named Susan Smit.
This was then posted to Facebook, with the claim that it was proof of “lies” from mainstream media outlets.
But the image was shared in the South African newspaper as a joke—the caption she shared actually appeared in the satire section of South African newspaper Rapport.
When translated from Afrikaans, it jokes that the vaccine “has placed Susan Smit under direct control of Bill Gates."
It is a genuine photo of a British woman named Joan Burgess getting the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine at a drive-through vaccination centre in Hyde, in Manchester.
Rapport has since clarified that it was a joke, and apologised for any offence caused.
