Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
January 14, 2021
Top of the Agenda
Trump Becomes First U.S. President to Be Impeached Twice
The House of Representatives voted to impeach President Donald J. Trump for a second time over his incitement of an insurrection at the U.S. Capitol last week. Ten Republican lawmakers joined Democrats to vote in favor of impeachment (WaPo), unlike Trump’s first impeachment, which received no Republican support.

The Senate is unlikely to hold a trial until after President-Elect Joe Biden’s inauguration (NBC) and Trump’s departure from office. At that point, Democrats will have narrow control of the Senate. If convicted, Trump could be barred from ever running for federal office again. In a video released after the vote, Trump criticized the Capitol rioters. As lawmakers voted, the Capitol was heavily protected (NYT) by members of the National Guard and other law enforcement officers. At least twenty thousand National Guard troops will be in Washington for Biden’s inauguration next week.
Analysis

“Nobody has sown discord as recklessly as Mr. Trump and his party. You do not overcome division by pretending that nothing is wrong, but by facing it. Were Mr. Trump to be convicted, the healing might genuinely begin,” the Economist writes.

“Polling indicates Republicans still have [Trump’s] back—and views—by vast majorities,” Axios’s Mike Allen and Margaret Talev write. “Anyone who thinks Trump is a politically dead man walking appears pointedly dead wrong.”

This CFR Backgrounder looks at the U.S. National Guard.

Top Threats to Watch in 2021
U.S. foreign policy experts rated North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons and testing of ballistic missiles as the top-ranked conflict concern for 2021. See other conflicts that could emerge in CFR’s annual Preventive Priorities Survey.

Pacific Rim
WHO Team Arrives in Wuhan as China Sees First COVID-19 Death in Months
A team of scientists from the World Health Organization (WHO) arrived in the Chinese city of Wuhan (SCMP) to investigate the origins of the coronavirus after months of planning and negotiating with Beijing. Meanwhile, China reported its first death (AP) attributed to COVID-19 in months as cases spike in regions near Beijing.

China: The Trump administration announced a ban (WaPo) on cotton and tomato imports from China’s northwestern region of Xinjiang, citing evidence of forced labor.

This CFR Backgrounder explains China’s repression of Uighurs in Xinjiang.

South and Central Asia
Fire Destroys Rohingya Refugees’ Homes in Bangladesh
The United Nations’ refugee agency said more than 550 shelters that housed around 3,500 people were destroyed or damaged (Reuters) by a massive fire in a camp for Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh’s southern district of Cox’s Bazar.

This CFR Backgrounder explains the Rohingya crisis.

Kazakhstan: The head of an Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) team that monitored the country’s January 10 elections said the vote was “not competitive” (RFE/RL) and noted seemingly “concerted” moves by authorities to hinder transparency.

Middle East and North Africa
Watchdog: Israeli Strikes in Syria Killed Dozens of People
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that Israeli air strikes in eastern Syria yesterday killed at least fifty-seven people (Haaretz, Reuters). Israel has reportedly carried out four rounds of air strikes within two weeks targeting pro-Iran militias in Syria.

Iran: The United States imposed sanctions on two foundations (Reuters) controlled by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the latest move by the Trump administration to exert pressure on Iran.

This CFR timeline traces U.S.-Iran relations.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Ugandans Vote in Tense Election
More than eighteen million registered voters are expected to cast their ballots (East African) in Uganda’s presidential and parliamentary elections today. After months of tense campaigning marred by killings and government efforts to stifle the opposition, particularly the presidential candidate known as Bobi Wine, some people expressed fears of violence at the polls (AP). President Yoweri Museveni is seeking a sixth term.

Ethiopia: More than eighty civilians were killed (AFP) on Tuesday in a region of western Ethiopia that has suffered violent attacks in recent months, the country’s human rights officials said. The incident is still under investigation.

Europe
Italian Government Enters Crisis After Ministers Quit
Former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi withdrew his Italia Viva party (Politico) from Italy’s coalition government, criticizing Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s cabinet for its pandemic response, among other grievances. Conte showed no immediate signs of resigning.
 
Russia: A lawyer for prominent dissident Alexey Navalny said Navalny risks being jailed (Reuters) for three and a half years when he returns to Russia this weekend. Navalny has been receiving treatment in Germany after being poisoned by a nerve agent in August. The Kremlin has denied involvement in his poisoning.

Americas
Honduran Migrants Start Trek to Guatemalan Border
A group of two hundred Honduran migrants started walking (AP) toward their country’s border with Guatemala ahead of a larger procession expected to depart from the city of San Pedro Sula tomorrow. Guatemala announced this week that more than two thousand law enforcement officers will be stationed at the border to check migrants’ documents, including proof of a negative COVID-19 test.
 
Cuba: Schools and public transportation will close across much of Cuba (Reuters) as the country struggles with its worst outbreak of COVID-19 since the pandemic began.
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