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This time, it’s different… maybe. As Israel enters its third nationwide lockdown and gears up for its fourth election in 24 months, there’s a feeling among pundits and prognosticators that after three elections with largely similar, deadlocked results, the next electoral outcome could take a different shape.

In the first three elections, an array of parties from the center to the right -- most notably, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud and Benny Gantz’s Blue and White -- kept winning a majority of seats. What would otherwise have been a reasonably straightforward coalition agreement between those parties was complicated by Prime Minister Netanyahu’s overriding drive for self preservation. Aligning with Netanyahu demanded not only ideological compatibility, but support for the Prime Minister’s personal crusade to undermine, frustrate and evade a series of corruption cases against him.

In the first three elections, the main challenge to Netanyahu’s grip on power came from the centrist political newcomer Gantz. This time, however, the chief threat originates from within Netanyahu’s own right wing of Israeli politics, with veteran politician Gideon Sa'ar having split from Likud to start his own right-wing party, New Hope -- and far-right former minister Naftali Bennett also performing well in the polls with his Yamina list.

To remain in power, Netanyahu must win enough seats for Likud to deny Sa'ar the ability to form a center-right coalition without him. With anti-Netanyahu sentiment growing across the political spectrum, Sa’ar may even be able to rely on center-left parties joining a coalition united not around ideology, but around finally ending Netanyahu’s grip on power.

Of the four election campaigns facing Netanyahu in the past two years, this will likely be his toughest yet.

Sa’ar woos Likud defectors and works to consolidate right-wing support

Likud-deserter Gideon Sa’ar has enjoyed a successful start as he steps out of Netanyahu’s shadow to build his own party, New Hope. So far, the new party has won four defections from Likud, including popular MK Yifat Shasha-Biton and one of Netanyahu’s close former confidants, Ze’ev Elkin. Sa’ar has also made clear that while his party’s policies are likely to be indistinguishable from Likud’s, he will not enter any power-sharing agreement with Netanyahu.

New Hope is already polling at around 18 seats, which would likely place it as one of the top-three parties if an election were held today. In a worrying sign for Netanyahu, Sa’ar has already inked a vote-sharing arrangement with the far-right Yamina list. In the past five election campaigns, the list had made a similar deal with Likud.

After years of racist rhetoric, Netanyahu makes a play for Arab voters

Desperate times call for desperate measures. In what may be a sign that Netanyahu recognizes the significance of the challenge ahead of him, the Prime Minister has kicked off his election campaign with an eyebrow-raising play for Arab voters. “We’re reaching out to Arab voters -- vote for us,” Netanyahu said as part of his pitch, with the PM expected to announce a host of new policies designed to address issues of concern for Arab-Israelis.

While it shouldn’t be surprising that an Israeli prime minister would seek to win support from Arab-Israelis who make up 20% of Israel’s population, that this particular prime minister would do so takes more than a little chutzpah. Famous for his vilification not only of Arab politicians but Arab voters as well, in 2015 Netanyahu sought to motivate his base by warning that “Arab voters are heading to the polling stations in droves.” Just last year, Netanyahu’s Likud deployed party volunteers armed with cameras to majority-Arab polling stations in an effort to deter and intimidate voters.

“We already knew that Netanyahu doesn’t believe we’re equal, but his new effort to garner votes also proves that he disparages the intelligence of Arab society,” tweeted the head of the Joint List of majority Arab parties Ayman Odeh. “A decade of indifference to crime, inciting violence, fanning hate won’t be erased in an election campaign.” There are indications that a small, but not negligible, amount of Arab citizens will vote Likud -- either because they prefer to focus more on their own livelihoods than on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or because they share the illiberal “family values” of the Likud/ultra-Orthodox bloc on social issues.

Other parties are also seeking to broaden their appeal to Arab-Israelis. The progressive Meretz party has now included two Arab candidates among the top five members of its slate.

Gantz continues downward slide

Having split his Blue and White coalition down the middle with the decision to join Netanyahu in a short-lived unity government, former IDF chief and political newcomer Benny Gantz has faced an exodus from his party. Of the 14 MKs who remained with him in the coalition government, nine have now deserted the party. Based on current polling, Gantz will be lucky to win five seats in the next election and remain in the Knesset.

Voters have been much kinder to the MKs who split from Gantz and refused to join the Netanyahu government. Support for Yesh Atid, led by Gant’z former “Blue and White” ally Yair Lapid, has remained steady. The centrist party was still on track to win over a dozen seats, before the desertion of the Telem faction, headed by former Defense Minister Yaalon, who has declared that his party is going to run separately from Yesh Atid.

Crowded left field faces deadlines to consolidate

Israel’s center-left parties normally win about a third of the vote, but at the moment that risks being split across half a dozen small parties, with some risking falling below the threshold for entry into the Knesset. The already crowded field has seen a new arrival with Tel Aviv Mayor Ron Huldai announcing the formation of a new left-wing party called The Israelis.

The former IDF fighter pilot who has been Mayor of Tel Aviv for more than 22 years blasted the “crazy” right-wing Netanyahu government for eroding the country’s liberal democratic values. “We can stop the despair. I’m doing this for my children, and mainly for my grandchildren. Israel can and must be run differently,” the 76-year-old political veteran said.

With so many minor parties now competing for a relatively fixed number of progressive and center-left voters, the pressure is on for parties to negotiate mergers and join lists ahead of the February 4 filing deadline. Without running on a joint slate, parties risk falling below the 3.25% Knesset entry threshold and having the left-of-center votes they received go to waste. The once mighty Israeli Labor party is currently polling at around that threshold, risking political oblivion if it fails to join forces with a suitable partner.

Israeli leaders condemn Capitol Hill insurrection

Defense Minister Benny Gantz said the images from Washington DC last week “hurt the heart of anyone who believes in democracy” and said it was “proof that before political rivalry, we must agree on the rules of the game: preserving the rule of law, respecting democratic processes and a respectful discourse." Echoing Gantz, New Hope leader Gideon Sa’ar said “the events serve as an important reminder of the dangers of polarization and extremism in society. We must never take democracy and its institutions for granted.”

Sometime later, after the formal certification of Biden’s victory, Prime Minister Netanyahu said in a joint press conference with the US Treasury Secretary that the violence was “shameful and must be vigorously condemned” and that “American democracy will prevail, it always has.” Netanyahu went on to praise President Trump and the administration for supporting Israel’s normalization agreements with a number of its Middle Eastern neighbors.

Some analysts have already speculated that the Trump-inspired insurrection has been a political blow to Netanyahu, given how closely he aligned himself with Trump, and have compared the Republicans now turning on Trump to the right-wing leaders who have deserted Netanyahu.

J Street is the political home for pro-Israel, pro-peace Americans who want Israel to be secure, democratic and the national home of the Jewish people. Working in American politics and the Jewish community, we advocate policies that advance shared US and Israeli interests as well as Jewish and democratic values, leading to a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

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