Initial claims for the week of January 2 were down both in California and the rest of the US.

In California, initial claims in the regular program were down 5.2% over the prior week, while initial PUA claims were off more sharply by 26.4%. In the national totals, regular claims were up 9.2%, but were offset by a much deeper drop in PUA claims by 48.0%. PUA claims, however, likely were affected by their uncertain extension until final action on the COVID-relief bill at the end of December. Combined, total claims were down 9.0% in California and 6.2% in the US.

The latest week’s results show some downward movement for both the state and the rest of the country, although claims still remain historically high and the widened gap between California and the other states remains.

The prospects of further substantial reductions in claims remain limited by restrictions on reopening jobs in particular for lower wage workers. Based on the most recent county tier allocations, virtually all of the unemployed in the November labor force numbers are in counties under the most restrictive Tier 1 status. The category of “unemployed,” however, does not cover all those who are out of work in the current crisis. Many of those currently not working are not counted within the labor force for statistical purposes, including many caregivers who were forced at the last minute to decide between working and taking care of their children as schools in many cases delayed their reopening decisions and left these workers with few options. Under the official tabulation, there were 1.5 million unemployed Californians in November (seasonally adjusted). Using the pre-crisis employment level in February as a base, the number out of work is closer to 2.2 million. 

The primary hopes of easing the state’s restrictions and reopening businesses and jobs now center around a rapid roll-out of the vaccines approved towards the end of 2020. However, after previously expressing concerns over the initial pace of vaccine deliveries, California has been among the slowest states to deliver the doses as they have arrived. In the most recent tracking, California was essentially tied with Alabama and ahead of only Georgia among the states in administering their vaccine supplies. The Pfizer vaccine must be stored at minus 70 degrees Celsius and must be used within 5 days after being thawed. Moderna’s is more flexible, with storage at minus 20 and use within 30 days after thawing. However, both have limits, and California’s bureaucratic delays leading to needless disposal of critical vaccines appears to be a potential risk given the state’s severely lagging performance.

The most recent backlog reports from EDD again show a rise in the number of backlogged claims. The backlog in initial claims as of December 30 was up 7.3% from the week prior. The continuing claims backlog was essentially unchanged with an improvement of only 0.4%. In total, backlogged claims have grown by more than 270,000 since the low was reached during the week of November 18.

Backlogged initial claims are defined as those “applications for benefits that take more than 21 days to issue a first payment or to disqualify the individual, regardless of if the claimant or EDD need to take some kind of action.” Backlogged continuing claims are defined as a “subset of all individuals who received at least one payment and are now waiting more than 21 days for further processing of payment or disqualification.”