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John--
We are once again starting off a New Year amid speculation of conflict with Iran. In recent weeks, the Trump administration has flown bombers and aircraft carriers near Iran’s territory, while yesterday Iran announced that it is escalating its enrichment of uranium.[1] However, after enduring four years of disastrous Trump policies, hope is on the way in large part thanks to the support of our community and allies. While we must remain vigilant in Trump’s final days, President Elect Biden will usher in a major shift beginning in two weeks.
Why is the Trump administration ratcheting up tensions with Iran now? Trump has reportedly feared retaliation from Iran around the anniversary of the killing of General Soleimani, which brought us to the edge of war a year ago, and is apparently getting bad advice on how to deter Iran.[2] Trump officials have also claimed that they received intelligence suggesting that Iran had planned to retaliate, although Pentagon officials later countered those claims.
But most concerningly, the hawks in Trump’s orbit continue to seek ways to block any U.S.-Iran negotiations under Biden, and Trump himself may be seeking a distraction from his likely-criminal efforts to overturn the election outcome. While he has no authorization for war, Trump or regional actors may still try to start one in his waning days in office.
Can the nuclear deal still be saved? Yes. Iran has indicated that all of its steps outside of the agreement, including its decision to enrich to 20%, are reversible if the U.S. lifts sanctions as it is obligated under the deal. President Elect Biden has said he would return to the deal if Iran does the same. And, 150 Members of Congress have urged Biden to get back into the deal.[3] There are important details left to discuss, and the window won’t stay open forever, but there is still a strong opportunity to get back to and build on the deal.
What other changes could we see early under a Biden administration? Biden has committed to end the Muslim ban on Day 1, which will open a path for Iranian Americans and their families to reunite after years of discriminatory separation. And, we expect that Biden will look closely at options for humanitarian relief to help combat the spread of COVID-19 in Iran.
But we aren't going to stop there. The Iran deal must be protected from the whims of any one administration, which is why we'll be working with Congress in the coming year to secure a veto-proof threshold to block any new sanctions aimed at sabotaging the Iran deal and future diplomacy. While we're not out of the woods yet and 2021 has started with tensions and posturing, the prospects for diplomacy with Iran grow brighter as we get closer to Inauguration Day.
As always, thank you for your support and we'll keep you all updated on developments as we learn more.
Best,
Ryan Costello
Policy Director, NIAC
PS - Check out our full statement on Iran's decision to resume 20% enrichment following U.S. military posturing here >
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[1] In Abrupt Reversal of Iran Strategy, Pentagon Orders Aircraft Carrier Home
[2] After anniversary of Soleimani’s killing, U.S.-Iran tensions run high
[3] Congressional Letter to President-elect Biden in Support of the Iran Nuclear Deal (PDF)
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