The Israeli Election and its Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy in the Middle East

The most recent Israeli elections brought a wave of provocative campaign promises from both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his opponent, Kahol Lavan leader Benny Gantz. But while the election ended in a stalemate between the two leaders and questions remain about the future direction of the Israeli government, the resulting implications for U.S. foreign policy in the region and the Trump Administration's Middle East Peace plan are more explicit.

In an Op-Ed for the Washington Examiner, Jon Lerner considers the effect of both candidates voicing support for annexing the Jordan Valley, writing: 

The Israeli election results produced a stalemate that could take a few weeks to sort out. However, regardless of whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu retains his office, he did something in the election run-up that deserves attention. He made waves by declaring his intention to annex the Jordan Valley. Rather than rejecting this idea, Benny Gantz, the other leading prospect for prime minister, responded that Netanyahu was copying his own positions.

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The Trump administration has signaled its intention to unveil its peace plan soon. Netanyahu said he would pursue his annexation plans in coordination with Trump. And yet, upon hearing of the Netanyahu plan, the administration declared that there has been “no change in U.S. policy.” That policy does not include Israeli annexation of the Jordan Valley. What’s going on?

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If [Palestinian leaders] greet the Trump plan with the same contempt as they did the Jerusalem decision, they could well end up in an even worse position. Trump officials have said their plan will include some things that all parties like and some that all dislike. If the Palestinians refuse to engage on a proposal that gives them some of what they want, they might just get the annexation they dread.

And Hillel Fradkin responds to Robert Kagan's claim that Israel's election is a sign of the country abandoning the liberal order, writing in Mosaic: 

Given Kagan’s grand scheme of things, given how small and inconsequential in that scheme he considers Israel to be, and given how apparently repulsive he deems it to all that is liberal and good, even ceasing to exist should hardly matter. Which leads one to suggest that instead of expending his energies on tearing Israel down, he could have saved his breath for more important missions like the fight to preserve or, at this point, revive the dying liberal world order.

By his own account, few today are devoted to that task, so it will be a lonely fight. All the more reason, one might think, to leave Israel, Netanyahu, and other Israeli leaders to pursue their own lonely fight, however inconsequential, to preserve the lives, safety, and well-being of eight million Israeli citizens, Arab and Jewish alike. After all, the conduct of that fight is their job, required of them by the Israeli public and given to them through the institutions of what one may dare to call Israel’s liberal democratic order.

Hudson Highlights

New Episodes of the Realignment

Listen to the latest episodes of The Realignment. In last week's episode the Washington Free Beacon’s new editor in chief, Eliana Johnson, describes reporting on the White House during a time of political upheaval, and this week Marshall and Saagar sat down with Jacobin Magazine's Bhaskar Sunkara to debate his case for modern socialism.

Commentary

UN General Assembly

Nina Shea praises President Trump's UNGA speech on religious freedom in the National Catholic Register:

Nina Shea, the director of Center for Religious Freedom at the Hudson Institute, a Washington, D.C.-based research center, told the Register that Trump’s speech today was “important and historic. It will signal to both the America people and the world that religious freedom is a domestic and foreign policy concern, and human rights concern.”

Shea emphasized that the president’s address featured one of the “highest-profile lineups [of a U.S. administration] on any issue," with Trump flanked by Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and Sam Brownback, Ambassador-at-Large for International Religious Freedom.

The speech “comes at a time when it is very clear that we are entering a new era of intense religious persecution. It started about 15 years ago with events in the Middle East, and now the upsurge in China and Sub Sahara Africa.

“It is clear that Christians are really in the crosshairs, more intensely persecuted than any other group, though others are suffering.”

U.S.-China Trade War

Michael Pillsbury considers President Trump's options for escalating the trade war with China in the Washington Examiner:

"Does the president have options to escalate the trade war? Yes, the tariffs can be raised higher," Pillsbury, a senior fellow and director for Chinese strategy at the conservative Hudson Institute, told the South China Morning Post. “There are other options involving the financial markets, Wall Street, you know, the president has a whole range of options."

And in an interview with Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business, Pillsbury discusses the impact the Hong Kong protests could have on the US-China trade negotiations. 

Saudi Oil Field Attack

Rebeccah Heinrichs cautions against escalation with Iran in Foreign Policy:

Rebeccah Heinrichs, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, echoed defense officials in urging a restrained response. Heinrichs said the United States “should resist being baited into a shooting war,” noting that “this is primarily a Saudi problem.”

“President Trump, the whole country really, doesn’t want to get involved in another Middle East conflict if we really don’t have to,” Heinrichs said. “This administration does not want to go to war with Iran.”

Heinrichs noted that the military is eager to shift focus from the Middle East and reorient toward competition with Russia and China, as former Defense Secretary James Mattis laid out in his 2018 National Defense Strategy. China’s malign activities in the Indo-Pacific and Russia’s aggressive moves in Eastern Europe “deserve more of our focus,” she said.

Heinrichs also discusses oil market fluctuations after the drone strikes on Saudi oil production plants in an interview with Charles Payne on Fox Business. 

In an interview with Kristen Fisher on Fox News, Michael Pregent speaks on Iran's involvement in the strikes on Saudi oil facilities. 

Robert O’Brien Appointed as National Security Advisor

Ken Weinstein praises Robert O’Brien’s appointment as National Security Advisor in the Washington Times:

Mr. O’Brien has been “incredibly effective as the ambassador for these hostage negotiations,” said Kenneth R. Weinstein, president of the Hudson Institute. “He’s someone who has gone in, under the radar, and handles sensitive negotiations in a low-key manner.”

Patrick Cronin comments on O’Brien’s appointment in NPR:

National security insiders also hailed the choice.

Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific Security Chair for the Hudson Institute, said O'Brien has a "razor-sharp mind and a diplomatic demeanor."

Trump’s Indo-Pacific Strategy

In a panel discussion at the Global Taiwan Institute annual symposium, Rob Spalding discusses the U.S.’s Indo-Pacific strategy.

Husain Haqqani discusses Trump’s relationship with Indian Prime Minister Modi ahead of Modi’s visit to Houston, Texas last Sunday in Economic Times:

China, you should pay attention. And Pakistan, you do the same. The Americans are sending a strong signal. Do you copy? US President Donald Trump will not only appear at Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Houston rally, but also have a separate bilateral meeting with him in New York.

It’s quite a departure from trying to mediate in Kashmir to make Pakistan feel good for a bit. But Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s daily calls for jihad and threats of nuclear war have unsettled American and Arab leaders alike. He may have totally lost Trump.

As Pakistan’s former ambassador to the US Husain Haqqani told me, while Trump may have hosted Khan, it is Modi that he considers his “ally and friend”. This will certainly “depress those who thought Khan’s last trip to Washington represented a breakthrough in relations”

Hudson Institute recently hosted an event on strengthening the U.S.-Taiwan alliance as China grows increasingly aggressive in the Indo-Pacific.

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