[1]Logo


Well that didn’t last long.

After just seven months, the Gantz-Netanyahu coalition agreement collapsed
this week, sending Israelis back to the polls on March 23, 2021.

Formed in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic this May, this marriage
of necessity between rivals Benny Gantz and Benjamin Netanyahu wasn't
expected to last its full term. Government ministers and Gantz himself
often expressed doubt that the coalition would survive long enough for him
to rotate into the prime ministership in November next year.

The predestined collapse means Israel will be headed to an unprecedented
fourth election in just 24 months.

It also means we'll be resuming our
more-or-less weekly Israeli election update emails, for subscribers only.
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How did we get here?

[2]Gantz and Netanyahu

The prospect of new elections has been in the cards for months, with
tensions coming to a head over budget negotiations. Remaining at an
impasse as they approached a key deadline to pass a budget Tuesday night,
both Gantz and Netanyahu agreed to a short-term extension.

But by morning, a series of Likud and Blue and White MKs broke ranks with
their leaders and torpedoed the extension vote. The failure to pass the
extension triggered the end of the coalition agreement, the dissolution of
the Knesset and fresh elections next March.

In dramatic scenes in the early hours of Tuesday morning, a series of
Likud and Blue and White MKs broke ranks with their leaders and torpedoed
the extension vote. The failure to pass the extension triggered the end of
the coalition agreement, the dissolution of the Knesset and fresh
elections next March.

Keenly aware of how unpopular a return to the ballot box will be for
voters, both Gantz and Netanyahu are blaming each other for the failure,
with neither man heading into the next election in a strong position.

Gantz has collapsed in the polls; Only four percent of Israelis want him
to serve as Israel's next PM. Netanyahu, meanwhile, faces a serious
electoral threat from minister-turned-rival Gideon Sa’ar, who last month
split from Likud to launch a rival right-wing party, New Hope, which
appears to have drawn support from both Gantz and Netanyahu.

New Battlelines

[3]Saar

While Israel’s previous three elections resulted in largely similar
deadlocked results, there’s reason to believe this time could be
different.

The collapse in support for Benny Gantz and the strong polling results for
renegade Likud MK Gideon Sa’ar mean that Netanyahu now faces a greater
threat from right-wing parties than from the center-left. Their surging
support and the fact that his right-wing opponents are more culturally,
politically and ideologically aligned than those on the center-left means
this is likely to be Netanyahu’s toughest challenge yet.

Already, Sa’ar’s right-wing ‘New Hope’ party is polling at 19 seats in the
120 seat Knesset, taking seats from Netanyahu’s Likud (now polling at 28
seats, down from 36) and Blue and White (now polling at five seats, down
from 14). The far-right Yamina coalition, led by Neftali Bennet, is also
surging in support (now polling at 14 seats, up from six).

For the thousands of Israelis who rallied together over the summer to
protest Netanyahu’s increasingly autocratic and corrupt leadership, this
election may represent the best opportunity yet to end Netanyahu’s
long-running grip on Israeli politics.

For Palestinians, however, a new right-wing government without Netanyahu
at the helm would mean little change to the dynamics of the conflict. In a
leadership vote earlier this year, Sa’ar won the strong backing of the
settler movement and has a record of fierce opposition to a two-state
peace agreement.

For the center-left, the elections couldn’t come at a worse time.

Benny Gantz’s decision to partner with Prime Minister Netanyahu earlier
this year fractured the Blue and White party right down the middle,
halving its seats and leading to a steady ebb in support. The party now
risks falling below the 3.25% Knesset entry threshold.

Other parties to the left also face a potential wipeout, with Israeli
voters potentially set to eject the once-mighty Labor party from the
Knesset altogether. The Joint List of majority Arab parties, meanwhile, is
struggling with its own internal divisions and may not run together on a
joint slate.

The beginning of the end for Netanyahu?

[4]Protesters

Prime Minister Netanyahu initially scored high marks for his early
handling of the COVID-19 crisis, but that quickly gave way to frustration,
anger and protests as the economic impact worsened and cases began to
spike higher than ever before. The PM also continues to face ongoing
pressure from legal proceedings related to multiple corruption charges and
a reputation for dishonesty and self-dealing. Prosecutors are expected to
present evidence in his corruption trial in February.

Netanyahu has banked several political wins since the last election,
however.

Most significantly, the Prime Minister achieved landmark normalization
agreements with Bahrain, the UAE, Sudan and Morocco. The past few months
have also seen a significant increase in settlement activity and
demolitions of Palestinian homes, key priorities for the far-right
settlement movement, which has been bitter ever since Netanyahu paused his
plans to annex vast swathes of the West Bank.

Netanyahu’s security and foreign policy credentials were also boosted last
month with the prime minister all but confirming a groundbreaking secret
meeting with the crown prince of Saudi Arabia. November also saw the
assassination of Iran’s top nuclear scientist, which Israeli sources took
credit for in the pages of the New York Times.

All this plays into the prime minister’s positioning of himself as “Mr
Security.”

Still, the challenge from an increasingly unified anti-Netanyahu majority
may prove too much for Israel’s longest-serving prime minister to
overcome. Netanyahu’s task over the next three months of campaigning will
be threefold: bring down Gideon Sa’ar as a viable alternative, reclaim
ground from parties to Likud’s right and divide and conquer the
anti-Netanyahu coalition on the right and center.

Just like the last three campaigns, we should expect the weeks ahead to be
filled with increasing division, calculated racism, new attempts at voter
suppression and a continuation of absurdly over-the-top political attacks.

Further Reading

* [ [link removed] ]The rivals on the right: Why the new election will be much tougher
for Netanyahu, Times of Israel
* [ [link removed] ]Pro-settler Saar: the new hope of Israel's center-left, Al Monitor
* [ [link removed] ]Gantz’s Political Party Was Last Year’s Largest. Now It’s the
Walking Dead, Haaretz

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