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Unsanitized: The COVID-19 Report for Dec. 21, 2020

COVID Relief Success Depends on Vaccination Success

If the vaccine rolls out quickly, this is a good bridge. If not ...

 

It's Christmas on Wall Street as a COVID relief deal is reached.

First Response

**** After a weekend full of impasses and breakthroughs, today a COVID
relief bill will pass, nearly nine months after the last one, nearly
five months after the boosted unemployment from the last one expired, a
little over eight months after the first people got government checks to
deal with the economic pain. The final sticking point, on the extent of
cancellation of Fed lending programs, was handled over the weekend.

The relief package is paired with an omnibus spending bill that includes
a fix on surprise billing

(our coverage
,
with the addition that Medicare and Medicaid rates have been thrown out
of the assessment of the median network rate, making this friendlier to
private equity-backed providers), an energy bill, a water bill (our
coverage
),
a 25-years-in-the-making fix that restores Medicaid

for Marshall Islands natives living in the U.S., $1.4 billion in border
wall money, the entire tax extenders bill (which yields annual chuckles
about tax breaks for Puerto Rican rum and thoroughbred horses), loan
forgiveness for HBCUs, technical corrections to the trade agreement with
Mexico and Canada, and an intelligence authorization bill.

Obviously, this was the last train leaving the station this Congress.
But with federal spending now set until September 2021, there's no
obvious must-pass moment

for the next nine months, and with tight margins in Congress making this
a "starter home," with additional relief down the road, will be very
difficult. That makes the scope of the bill rather important.

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There's nothing objectionable in this bill. (OK, one thing, which
I'll explain later.) It takes as its framework something I suggested
on November 12: "Slice the money cannon into money for the people
."
This was kind of an accounting gimmick, as the money cannon didn't
technically have a CBO score (it's complicated). But that's what
helped sell Republicans, the idea that they weren't spending much
"new" money because they were canceling out the corporate credit
facilities. Whatever myth they told themselves, it got this deal done.
(That and the threat of losing their Senate majority in the Georgia
runoffs. The nation thanks David Perdue for coming 0.3 percent short of
a simple majority in November!)

So roughly $430 billion in corporate trickle-down money was converted
into $600 means-tested checks for adults and children; mixed-status
families will get the money and the checks could roll out as soon as
next week
.
It was converted into 11 weeks of extended unemployment programs for gig
workers and freelancers, as well as extended benefits, and a $300/week
increase for all UI programs. Those two pieces have a value of $286
billion, less than the money cannon reserve. Add $25 billion in rental
assistance, $20 billion for businesses in low-income communities, $14
billion to maintain mass transit systems, $13 billion for expanded
nutrition assistance, $10 billion to sustain child care facilities, and
$7 billion for broadband assistance for mostly poor families, and
you're still not there. There's another $525 billion in the bill
besides all that, mostly for another round of PPP for small business
(with bigger grants for restaurants), another $15 billion airline
bailout, $82 billion for schools, $69 billion for hospitals, vaccines,
testing and tracing (will elaborate later), and a ridiculous meals
deduction

to satisfy Trump.

So again: nothing objectionable. OK, here's the one thing: the PPP tax
"double dip
."
PPP grants are already tax-free, but small business owners want to be
able to deduct expenses like payroll, as they would normally do, that
was paid out with those tax-free grants. Progressives call this a
"double dip" while a bipartisan group of lawmakers, pushed by affected
industries, wanted this badly. Steve Mnuchin sided with the
progressives, actually, but Republicans complained on a call yesterday
and he reversed himself. What's odd is that no Democrats come up in
the conversation at all. This deductibility issue, while not scored,
could be worth up to $200 billion to the affected businesses. Did
Democrats ask for something in exchange for business relief? Looks like
they didn't.

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**** The only issue with this bill is, simply, it's not enough. An
artificial cap placed on the total cost limited the spending: the checks
and the unemployment boost is half of its equivalent in the CARES Act.
About 13.5 million adult dependents are ineligible for checks
-this
includes people with disabilities-for no articulable reason. Five
weeks were slashed from the unemployment extension. State and local
government aid doesn't exist (there are individual grants for things
state and local government provides, but it doesn't amount to very
much). Hazard pay and lots of other provisions were excised from
Democratic wish lists for the sake of fiscal probity. This popular tweet
about America
spending twice as much as its industrialized counterparts is really
about the paucity of our safety net; other countries do this stuff
automatically.

How "not enough" is it? That entirely depends on the vaccine rollout.
The unemployment provisions start to fade in mid-March and are gone by
April. The one-time check is one time. PPP grants cover two and a half
months of salary (three and a half for restaurants). Are we going to be
back to normal by April? Incoming surgeon general Vivek Murthy told

**Meet the Press** yesterday that widespread distribution may not come
until "early fall
."

That would be the biggest failing of this bill. Negotiators did increase
funds for vaccine procurement (up to $20 billion) and distribution
(around $9 billion). They also extended the deadline for states to use
CARES Act funds for COVID-related costs, which could go to vaccines. But
far greater amounts would have to be expended to really shift the
timeline of immunization. Put it this way: in the first week of the
Pfizer vaccine, 556,000 Americans got a dose
.
Joe Biden's vision is for twice as many to get doses

**per day** in his first 100 days. And if you say that 150 million
people have to be immunized to reach herd immunity, and each need two
shots (at least of the vaccines approved now), that gets you to herd
immunity in ... about 300 days. Nearly a year.

Now, there are now two vaccines approved for use, and maybe more coming.
This will accelerate, and it's the most significant logistical project
in history, not one that will begin perfectly smoothly. But any
expenditures that accelerate takeup will immediately pay off for the
economy. That should have been the biggest item in this bill, not a $29
billion afterthought. In fact, eight months ago we should have been
spending significantly to build and retool factories, hire logistical
personnel, etc. Right now we can spend to re-orient vaccine production
for non-approved makers to produce this vaccine. We did Operation Warp
Speed for vaccine development and not distribution.

If things work out and we start rolling out the vaccine widely in
spring, this will have been a successful effort, for which we can thank
Republican fears about Georgia. There will still be the nettlesome
problem of state and local austerity to take care of, and a whole bunch
of economic disruption. But the longer vaccine distribution takes, the
worse this ends up looking.

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Days Without a Bailout Oversight Chair

269
.
And I will have to retire this feature soon. As noted, part of the COVID
relief bill is the elimination of these bailout facilities on December
31, slicing up the money cannon for money for the people. That means the
end of the Congressional Oversight Commission monitoring these
facilities. One of the four commissioners, Bharat Ramamurti, already got
a new job

in the Biden White House, and another, Donna Shalala, lost her seat in
Congress and has no reason to return to Washington.

So this commission will end, either December 31 or shortly thereafter
(maybe there's a final report), without Nancy Pelosi and Mitch
McConnell ever picking a chair. And never forget, oversight was the key
"get" for Democrats in the final negotiations of the CARES Act.

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Today I Learned

* I was on Alternet's podcast with Joshua Holland discussing various
issues. Listen here .
(Alternet)

* A mutation of the virus
is
shutting down Great Britain. Or was "mutation" the excuse Boris Johnson
gave for a lockdown, and now it has isolated itself from the world? (

**Financial Times**)

* The country is now in total crisis mode
.
(Axios)

* The CDC recommends that frontline workers and people over the age of
74 get the vaccine

after the healthcare workers and nursing home residents. (

**New York Times**)

* For hospitals, cutting staff and supplies was a profit center
, and
now it signals a tragic lack of preparedness. (The Intercept)

* It's all contractors making the doses

for the vaccine companies. (

**Wall Street Journal**)

* "Extensive" political interference

from the Trump White House regarding the CDC, House Democrats allege. (

**The Hill**)

* Deborah Birx the latest to have a pandemic getaway
,

**contra**her public stance. (Associated Press)

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