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December 21, 2020

A PoliticalIQ survey of 1,696 registered voters in Georgia found that 78% have either voted already or definitely plan to vote in the January 5 Senate election.[1]

That total includes 85% of those who voted for President Donald Trump in November and 85% of those who voted for President-elect Joe Biden. The small number who voted for a third option and many who did not vote in November are less likely to participate in January. Among those voters in the survey who cast a ballot in November, 49% voted for Biden and 48% for Trump.[1]

The survey found that 77% of those likely to vote in January plan to cast their ballots early. There is a significant gap on the timing issue suggesting the Democrats will have the advantage in early voting, while Republicans will do better on Election Day itself. That is similar to what happened around the country on Election Day in November.[1]

For the January 5 Senate race in Georgia, 33% of Trump voters say they will vote in person on Election Day. Just 16% of Biden voters say the same. White voters, Republicans, and rural voters are more likely than others to cast their ballots on Election Day.[1]

Over the next few days, PoliticalIQ will release additional data from the survey. That will include updated information on the favorability ratings of the candidates, which party voters want to control the Senate, perceptions of the president’s legal challenges, and the horse race. We are deliberately presenting the horse race results last because they are the least important part of the survey yet always garner the most attention.[1]

This is consistent with an approach advocated by Scott Rasmussen to address the deep problems plaguing the election forecasting industry. He suggested that public pollsters should focus less on the horse race and “offer more data designed to help forecasters and politicians understand America.” He added that polls “should offer a voter-centric view of the race, measuring underlying attitudes more than attempting to define likely voters. We should certainly ask about the horse race, but never forget that elections are supposed to be more about the voters than the candidates.”[2]
 

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Each weekday, Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day explores interesting and newsworthy topics at the intersection of culture, politics, and technology. Columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.

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