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Welcome to the final newsletter of 2020!

Thank you for all your support this year. We'll be back on Sunday, 10th January.

* TALKING POINT, BY DR STEVE DAVIES
* BEING YOUR OWN BOSS
* MERRY "LITTLE" CHRISTMAS
* IN THE MEDIA
* MAKE THE (XMAS) BREAKTHROUGH!
* YOU'RE INVITED

This week, just before the week of Christmas, I had the great honour of delivering the IEA’s annual Hayek Memorial Lecture ([link removed]) . Unsurprisingly, the subject matter was the Covid pandemic. This however is a highly appropriate topic for a lecture inspired by and named after Friedrich Hayek.

Pandemics such as this one are best understood using a Hayekian perspective because they are a classic example of two of his major insights: the severity and extent of knowledge problems for human beings, and the way complex social processes are best understood using the notion of spontaneous order. This leads to three main conclusions.

First, pandemics, understood as fast-moving and complex processes, reveal the limits of both managerial politics and science and also simple or naïve libertarianism. The first because they show the problems models have in capturing what is going on in complex processes and assigning definite probabilities to outcomes, making prediction extremely difficult except in general terms. And the latter because such a rapid process shows the limits of relying on individual choice and action – this is the best way to go but sometimes it simply isn’t swift enough or requires too high a degree of convergence among people.

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Second, that therefore simple, swift, and decisive action is better than both doing nothing (which isn’t actually doing nothing because of the way individuals will do something) and trying to do something detailed and prescriptive. This also means that in a situation like this it is competence and administrative capacity that matters more than ideology, size or even policy.

Third, that the current one has provoked a debate marked by unwarranted claims of certainty on both sides of the argument. Some claim to know what will happen if a policy of strict controls is followed, others that they know what will happen if a more relaxed one is followed. Both assert a greater degree of knowledge than we actually have or can have. The better thing to do is to think like a gambler, in terms of odds and costs.

The final point to take from looking at this from the Hayekian point of view is the need for humility – a very appropriate position to adopt at Christmas!

Dr Steve Davies
Head of Education, Institute of Economic Affairs
What viewers said about the 2020 Hayek Memorial Lecture..

"Absolutely excellent lecture."

"Really lays out the issues well and made me think."

"Excellent lecture!"

"Great lecture! Fantastic stuff and a great audience."

"Incredible lecture! Thanks to Steve and everyone involved."

If you missed it, catch up here ([link removed]) !
BEING YOUR OWN BOSS

Working for yourself can be a risky and lonely business – even at the best of times. There is no single reason why individuals might choose self-employment: the self-employed are a heterogeneous group, and motivations range from flexibility to independence or financial reward.

But they have been dealt a devastating blow by the pandemic – as evidenced by this week's employment data ([link removed]) . Indeed, IEA Editorial and Research Fellow Professor Len Shackleton looked beyond the headline figures on the IEA blog ([link removed]) to reveal the true impact of Covid and government responses to it on the labour market.

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Nonetheless, the Chancellor has hinted that there may be tax hikes in the future as payback for the government assistance the self-employed have received over the course of this crisis – even though evidence suggests this has been poorly targeted. In addition, we have calls from trade unions for better rights and protection – meaning the self-employed face a "pincer movement" of higher taxes and more regulation.

In a new IEA briefing paper, Being your own boss: Should the government care? ([link removed]) , Len argues that, given the importance of getting people back to work post-Covid, it would be unwise to penalise the self-employed in the coming months.

As the economy recovers, we should not discourage those who want to be their own boss with hasty changes; instead, this could be the moment for radical reform, including a long-overdue merger between national insurance and income tax.

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Len's comments were featured in The Telegraph ([link removed]) , Len wrote an article for CapX ([link removed]) , and IEA Director of Communications Annabel Denham wrote an opinion piece for The Telegraph ([link removed]) titled: "The self-employed deserve government support as much as anyone – no strings attached".

Responding to the furlough extension until the end of April, Len expressed concern that the announcement could drive businesses to throw in the towel. His comments were featured in The Telegraph ([link removed]) .
MERRY "LITTLE" CHRISTMAS

When our Live with Littlewood Year in Review Special aired, it looked like we'd all be celebrating a "little" Christmas, after the Prime Minister on Wednesday insisted we keep our celebrations low key. What a difference 72 hours makes.

But it you're in search of something to lift the spirits, catch up on the final episode of our flagship show here ([link removed]) .

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Live from the IEA studio, our Director General Mark Littlewood – complete with Christmas pudding hat – was joined by 17 fantastic guests as he looked back at the highlights (and lowlights) of what has been an extraordinary year.

Guests included The Spectator's Kate Andrews, Patrick Basham of The Democracy Institute, political commentator Alex Deane, Matthew Elliott, Senior Political Adviser to Shore Capital, talkRadio's Mike Graham, The Telegraph's Madeline Grant, Tom Harwood, Senior Reporter at Guido Fawkes, the IEA's Professor Syed Kamall, Terry Kibbe of Free the People, Matt Kilcoyne of the Adam Smith Institute, Brendan O'Neill of Spiked magazine, the IEA's Dr Kristian Niemietz, former special adviser James Price, the IEA's Professor Len Shackleton, the IEA's Christopher Snowdon, classical liberal commentator Mahyar Tousi and Tom Whipple, Science Editor at The Times.

Watch here ([link removed]) .

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And if you're in need of a Christmas gift (for a German-speaking relative), Kristian has translated his book, 'Socialism: The Failed Idea That Never Dies,' ([link removed]) into his mother tongue.

You can buy 'Sozialismus: Die gescheiterte Idee, die niemals stirbt' on Amazon here ([link removed]) or download the English version for free on the IEA website here ([link removed]) .
IN THE MEDIA

The IEA has been winding up to Christmas, writing opinion pieces, giving radio interviews, and commenting on the big stories of the week. First up, IEA Director General Mark Littlewood suggested that misguided reform of our lending sector could mean only the affluent are able to readily access credit in his Times column. Read here ([link removed]) .

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In a debate piece for City AM, our Head of Political Economy Dr Kristian Niemietz said "yes" in response to the question: Should people be able to pay to get the Covid-19 vaccine privately? Kristian argued that "if private sales make additional resources available for the setting up of a private, additional distribution channel, then surely everyone benefits". Read his response in full here ([link removed]) . Kristian's comments also featured in the Daily Express ([link removed]) .

The IEA's Editorial and Research Fellow Professor Len Shackleton shared his views on the government's new approach to "equalities" policy, announced by Women and Equalities Minister Liz Truss. He welcomed the shift away from an "excessive emphasis on equality of outcome".

He argued that “no conceivable policy measures can ensure all groups will end up with the same incomes and fill roles in society in exactly the same proportions. What a focus on outcomes does is set group against group and lead to policies which are ineffective and often damaging. This in turn produces more animosity."

Read Len's full comment here ([link removed]) .

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IEA Senior Academic Fellow Professor Philip Booth wrote an opinion piece for Conservative Home about the UK's Competition and Markets Authority. This followed an open letter Philip wrote to John Penrose MP, who is currently conducting a review of competition policy. Read Philip's article here ([link removed]) , and the open letter here ([link removed]) .

Over on the airwaves, in a talkRADIO interview IEA Director of Communications Annabel Denham discussed the news that households built up an average of £7,100 in savings after lockdowns curtailed spending. On BBC Radio Scotland Annabel expressed support for private philanthropy, following the news that MacKenzie Scott has donated $4bn to over 380 charities.

Our Head of Media Emily Carver appeared on Times Radio to discuss restrictions over Christmas. She voiced support for some of the rhetoric around personal responsibility, and emphasised the importance of presenting individuals with the risks and allowing them to exercise their own judgment.

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And following reports that UNICEF has been spending donations on providing children in the UK with breakfast boxes, the IEA's Head of Lifestyle Economics Christopher Snowdon suggested on the Jeremy Vine show that with finite resources the charity should seek to spend donations in a way that saves as many lives as possible. Listen here ([link removed]) (from 10 minutes in).
MAKE THE (XMAS) BREAKTHROUGH!

If you’ve got some downtime – or lockdown time – over Christmas, why not take part in our Richard Koch Breakthrough Prize?

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The competition is looking for ways of helping 'left-behind' Britain – and there’s a first prize of £50,000 for the winning essay.

The competition judges are seeking the best answers to this question:

In the current severe economic climate, what pro-market, pro-enterprise policy would be the best way of supercharging growth, employment and living standards in 'left behind' Britain?

Why not seize the day? You can find out all the details at breakthroughprize.org.uk.
CALLING ALL STUDENTS

Places are still available on the new online MA in Political Economy by Research offered by the University of Buckingham's Vinson Centre in conjunction with the IEA.

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This one-year programme, starting in January, involves participating in a series of webinars given by experts such as Eamonn Butler, Steve Davies, Daniel Hannan, Martin Ricketts, Paul Ormerod and Philip Booth, and then writing a dissertation on a subject of your choice, assisted by a personal supervisor. There is also a facility, for a fee, to attend the webinars without taking part in the course.

The programme can be accessed from anywhere in the world. Full details are available from Len Shackleton: [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or from the Buckingham website: MA Political Economy by Research (Distance Learning) | University of Buckingham ([link removed])
YOU'RE INVITED

* In Conversation with Douglas Carswell
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Our In Conversation series will continue in the new year. On Tuesday 12th January at 6pm, the IEA will be hosting Douglas Carswell, chaired by IEA Director General Mark Littlewood.

Douglas previously served as the Member of Parliament for Clacton, where he gained a reputation as one of the country’s most outspoken and independently-minded politicians. Douglas was Co-founder of the Vote Leave campaigning organisation that supported a Leave vote in the 2016 Referendum. More recently, Douglas has established the Good Governance Project, which seeks to improve the way the UK is governed. He is the author of several influential books and papers and is published regularly in the press.

Douglas will join us to speak on his views and the political landscape more generally. The event will be live streamed on our YouTube channel here ([link removed]) .

Our line-up next year will include: the Rt Hon Baroness Morgan of Cotes, the Rt Hon Jacob Rees-Mogg MP, the Rt Hon David Davis MP and Rt Hon Kwasi Kwarteng MP.

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