From Dave Beaudoin, Ballotpedia <[email protected]>
Subject Voter turnout in Pivot Counties
Date December 15, 2020 10:35 AM
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** WELCOME TO THE TUESDAY, DEC. 15, BREW.
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* A look at presidential election turnout in the nation’s 206 Pivot Counties
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** A LOOK AT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION TURNOUT IN THE NATION’S 206 PIVOT COUNTIES
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Yesterday, the electoral college met in state capitals nationwide to formally elect the president and vice president. We continue to analyze this year’s election results from Pivot Counties—the 206 counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Today, let’s take a look at voter turnout.

Voter turnout in the 2020 presidential election has been estimated at 69.25% nationwide, the highest rate since 1900 when comparing total votes cast to the estimated voting-age population. This was an increase of 8.2 percentage points compared to 2016. TURNOUT IN PIVOT COUNTIES WAS 68.9%, 0.3 PERCENTAGE POINTS LOWER THAN THE NATIONAL RATE. 

This year, we introduced two new categories—Retained Pivot Counties, which voted for Trump again in 2020, and Boomerang Pivot Counties, which voted for Joe Biden (D). Based on unofficial results that are subject to change, Ballotpedia has determined that there were 181 Retained Pivot Counties and 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties. Retained Pivot Counties had a voter turnout rate of 67.8%, and Boomerang Pivot Counties had a turnout rate of 71.6%.

The chart below shows voter turnout in Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties compared to the nationwide average in the last four presidential elections—since 2008. Nationwide voter turnout is displayed via the yellow bar, with the turnout in Retained Pivot Counties displayed by the red bar, and Boomerang Pivot Counties by the blue one.

[Turnout]

Ballotpedia calculates turnout as the total number of votes cast in the presidential race divided by citizen voting-age population (CVAP). CVAP is the Census Bureau’s estimate of U.S. citizens aged 18 or older. Although factors such as incarceration can affect a person’s eligibility to vote, CVAP is a close approximation of the voting-eligible population. Our 2020 turnout numbers currently use 2018 CVAP estimates, which we’ll update when 2020 estimates are available. 

The 2020 presidential election continued the trend over the last four presidential election cycles where turnout in Boomerang Pivot Counties exceeded that in Retained Pivot Counties. Voter turnout this year in Boomerang Pivot Counties was 3.83 percentage points higher than the turnout in Retained Pivot Counties. Since 2008, voter turnout in Boomerang Pivot Counties has exceeded Retained Pivot Counties by an average of 3.95 percentage points.

The table below shows turnout by Pivot County category as well as the overall U.S. turnout from 2008 to 2020. Percentage point changes in the "Change" columns reflect the change between the column immediately to its left and right.

[Changes]

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