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Unsanitized: The COVID-19 Report for Dec. 10, 2020

Pay People to Get the Vaccine  

That should be part of a relief bill entirely focused on getting the
vaccine to people as fast as possible

 

We need more of this stuff produced, distributed, and administered, as
quickly as possible. (Frank Hoermann/SVEN SIMON/picture-alliance/dpa/AP
Images)

First Response

Over three thousand people were reported to have died in America from
coronavirus yesterday. That means this list

of the deadliest days in American history needs to be updated, with
Wednesday now at #4, above 9/11. Youyang Gu estimates
that we
will reach herd immunity, at which point the virus will peter out,
sometime around summer 2021, once something like 100 million Americans
are fully vaccinated.

That number, 100 million, is important. You don't need everybody in
the nation to get vaccinated in order to reach critical mass, though
it's a noble goal (Chicago has set it
,
for example). The more efficacious the vaccine is, the fewer people have
to be vaccinated to account for the fact that it doesn't work in some
people. But the efficacy rates for the Pfizer (which should be approved
for U.S. use today) and Moderna vaccines pushes over 90 percent. Even
the AstraZeneca shot, at 70 percent effectiveness, is pretty good. You
just need to end up with more people vaccinated. On those three shots
alone, the U.S. is guaranteed many more doses than needed to reach herd
immunity.

Now, there are things to work out, of course. The AstraZeneca vaccine
does not appear to be effective

at stopping transmission from asymptomatic carriers. There are some
allergy concerns

that have been picked up in the UK with the Pfizer vaccine, as they
begin to administer it. There are significant short-term symptoms

from the vaccines, particularly after the second dose.  

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All of that needs to be studied. But it all points toward getting more
of the virus into those who can accept it faster. If transmission is a
concern then more people have to get vaccinated so transmission is
incidental and doesn't lead to actual symptoms. If allergies restrict
some from vaccination then you want herd immunity faster to let the
disease due out. More people getting the virus in a shorter period of
time is the best possible outcome for public health.

It's also the best possible outcome for the economy. And that brings
us to the lumbering COVID relief talks.

There is no economic multiplier you can possibly think of that would be
more powerful than reaching herd immunity faster. One month earlier
getting back to normal means one month of shops open at full capacity
and music venues and bars and restaurants. The reward for economic
activity and jobs is in the trillions of dollars, seriously. And
that's worth investing in. It may be the only thing worth investing in
at this point.

As noted yesterday
,
the stimulus talks have gone off the rails
.
There's no legislative language from the bipartisan dealmakers, just
top-line summaries. State and local aid and corporate liability
protections continue to be sticking points. And now there's a dispute
over whether to give checks to a lot of people or boost weekly
unemployment benefits to those in the greatest need.

There is a consensus, however, on spending money to distribute the
vaccine. And there's a general consensus on the spending level of
around $900 billion. And we know that any dollar of spending on the
vaccine that gets people dosed up faster has a huge multiplier.

We Can't Do This Without You

A good solution, then, would be to spend a lot of money on vaccines. And
this can translate into money for people as well. First of all, we need
a lot more for vaccine production. Right now we have a bunch of purchase
guarantees for the vaccine and associated materials, but under the
Defense Production Act we could direct factories to convert fully to
making things needed for vaccines. There would be no greater purpose
right now than this. The DPA requires the government to pay those
manufacturers for their production, so you could devote a big chunk of
money to that.

Then, logistics and distribution. States and cities should be fully
reimbursed for any of those costs. A Vaccine Jobs Corps of nurse
practitioners and database operators and phone bankers (remember,
everyone requires two shots, so somebody is going to have to remind
people) could be useful, and we have millions of people who are out of
work or on furlough who need short-term jobs at good wages. That helps
solve a chunk of the unemployment problem.

Finally, we need to pay people to get the vaccine. And we need to pay
them a figure commensurate with the $1,200 checks that were initially
offered in the first CARES Act. It doubles as a one-time economic boost
and it goes toward a common purpose. Those with allergies (if that's a
reason that they cannot get the vaccine) should be paid to quarantine at
the same amount. Vaccine takeup is hovering around 50 percent in polls;
that will jump as its efficacy is demonstrated. But once herd immunity
is hit you can phase out the payments; they should be structured to
incentivize getting the vaccine as early as it's made available.

When you put all this together, you could probably come up with a
package that is similar to the $900 billion being discussed but entirely
focused on getting vaccinations done as fast as humanly possible. I know
that economists say things will pay for themselves all the time, but
this absolutely will, if it leads to herd immunity more rapidly.

If Mitch McConnell wants to reject this and submit to a 9/11 every day
for the next couple months as we trickle out a vaccine, force him to do
that. There was an Operation Warp Speed for the vaccine development and
not for the distribution. The scientific achievement is useless if it
can't get to people's arms fast enough to save lives. To me this is
a total no-brainer.

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Today I Learned

* America has tragically abandoned its citizens

to go it alone during the deadliest phase of the pandemic. (NBC News)

* Shoplifting has increased

during the pandemic. (Washington Post)

* Biggest increase in first-time unemployment claims

in months. (Economic Policy Institute)

* Canada has approved the Pfizer vaccine
.
I expect the U.S. to do so today. (Associated Press)

* The Chinese state-owned Sinopharm has a vaccine with 86 percent
effectiveness
.
(Washington Post)

* This is a case of the tyranny of aggregates, consumer spending is way
up

in 2020 among a certain class of people, and it ignores the pain at the
bottom. (CNBC)

* How Robinhood is a pandemic villain
. (TK News)

* The enduring presence of the empty, wide-body jet-using international
flight
.
(Wall Street Journal)

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