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NDN News: Presentation this Wed, Biden’s impressive team, Rep. Ruben Gallego on the Southwest

What Has Happened to the GOP?– Perhaps nothing captures the current moment more than the GOP’s relentless screaming that the Democratic Party has been captured by radicals – when it hasn’t – when, in fact, the GOP has. There is no symmetry here – the Democrats are not like the Republicans.  The Democratic establishment has rebuffed its more radical elements, the Republicans have been overtaken by them.  The GOP’s cries of Democratic radicalism, in the face of the experience, pragmatism and savvy of the emerging Biden team are just unserious, sophomoric, and increasingly pathetic.  

The descent of the GOP has been on full display these last few weeks - from its historical refusal to accept the outcome of the 2020 election to its historical refusal to accept the realities and dangers of COVID to the truly epic levels of corruption of their two GA Senate candidates.  The decline of the Party of Lincoln and Reagan into a QAnon radicalized mess has been a major theme of our work these past few years, and there is just no way to talk about American politics any longer without confronting the awful reality that one of our two political parties is acting in ways deeply inconsistent with how political parties in healthy democracies conduct themselves.   

We address the clear asymmetry that has emerged in US politics in our signature presentation, “With Democrats Things Get Better.”  We have two showings left this year – Wed Dec 9thand Dec 23rdat 2pm ET.  With Dems is new and fresh with each showing but if you can’t make either feel free to check out the recording from our last one in mid-November.  Sign up for either December presentation here.

One set of stats from the deck – since 1992 Dems have won more votes in 7 of 8 Presidential elections, something never done before by an American political party.  During that time the Democratic candidate has averaged 49% of the vote, GOPers 45.3%.  Dems have hit 48% or higher in 7 of these 8 elections, Rs just once; and GOP candidate for President has gotten above 47.1% of the vote since 2004.  

The Importance of the Heavily Mexican-American Parts of the US to the Democrats– In a lively discussion on Friday with Arizona Congressman Ruben Gallego NDN took a look at one of the more important geographical developments in recent years, the turning of the Southwest and heavily Mexican American parts of the US much more blue.  You can watch the discussion here, and review some of NDN’s work in this space here.  

One set of stats which came from the discussion which are still remarkable to look at is just how much more power Dems have gotten in from the region since Bush swept it in 2004.  A snapshot of how much has changed from 2004 to 2020 in AZ, CO, NM, NV:

Dem Electoral Votes – 0 in 2004, all 31 (100%) in 2020

Dem Senate Seats – 2 of 8 (25%) in 2004, all 8 (100%) in 2020

Dem House Seats – 6 of 21 (29%) in 2004, 14 of 23 (61%) in 2020

Dem Govs – 0 of 4 in 2004, 3 of 4 (75%) in 2020

In 16 years Dems have picked up 31 Electoral College votes, 6 Senate seats, 8 House seats and 3 governorships in these 4 southwestern states.  When you expand this analysis to include CA and TX, you get: 

Dem Electoral Votes – 55 of 118 (47%) Electoral College votes in 2004, 86 of 124 (69%) in 2020

Dem Senate Seats – 4 of 10 (40%) in 2004, 10 of 12 (83%) in 2020

Dem House Seats – 55 of 106 (52%) in 2004, 69 of 112 (62%) in 2020

Dem Govs – 0 of 6 (0%) in 2004, 4 of 6 (67%) in 2020

And from this region today comes the next Vice President, the current Speaker, and the next HHS Secretary who will be leading the fight against COVID.  The DCCC Chair in the 2018 cycle was from NM; the current DSCC Chair is from Nevada; the next DGA Chair is from New Mexico.  All four of Dem Senate pick ups over the last 2 election cycles have come from this region – Rosen (NV) and Sinema (AZ) in 2018, Hickenlooper (CO) and Kelly (AZ) in 2020.  

This recent transformation of the heavily Mexican-Americans part of the country, which includes our two largest states, ranks as one of the most important geographic and/or demographic stories of early 21stcentury American politics.  It is deserving of far more attention.  

-Simon, Georgia, and the rest of the NDN team 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

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