Welcome to the Friday, Dec. 4, Brew,

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. An updated look at presidential election results in the nation’s 206 Pivot Counties
2. Republican candidate in Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District certified as winner by six votes
3. Kwanza Hall wins runoff election to fill remainder of John Lewis' term in Georgia's 5th Congressional District

An updated look at presidential election results in the nation’s 206 Pivot Counties

A few weeks ago, we shared some preliminary figures about Pivot Counties in the 2020 elections. Ballotpedia identified 206 Pivot Counties nationwide that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and Donald Trump (R) in the 2016 presidential election.

We’ve divided these Pivot Counties into two categories based on the unofficial results: 

• Retained Pivot Counties, which voted for Trump again this year, and 
• Boomerang Pivot Counties, which voted for Joe Biden (D) on Nov. 3.

We’re continuing to update our vote counts as states certify results. Since we last analyzed this data in the Brew, four Retained Pivot Counties shifted to Boomerang Pivot Counties. Additionally, 10 new counties have released vote totals, resulting in nine new Retained Pivot Counties and one new Boomerang Pivot County. 

The new count: 179 Retained Pivot Counties and 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties. Two Pivot Counties in Illinois have yet to release full results. These numbers may change as results become final.

The four counties that changed from Retained to Boomerang are all located in New York—Broome, Essex, Rensselaer, and Saratoga. Based on current results, Biden’s margins of victory in Broome, Essex, and Rensselaer counties are less than Obama’s in 2012, the last time a Democrat won these counties. Biden exceeded Obama’s 2012 margin in Saratoga County. 

The nine additional Retained Pivot Counties are located in Mississippi (2) and Maine (7). Compared to 2016, his margins of victory increased in four of those counties and decreased in five.

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Republican candidate in Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District certified as winner by six votes

The closest U.S. House race since 1984 is likely headed to the House for resolution. 

Iowa state election officials certified Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) as the winner on Nov. 30 after a recount showed her winning by six votes. 

Rita Hart (D) announced on Dec. 2 that she would contest the results of the Nov. 3 general election in Iowa's 2nd Congressional District with the House Administration Committee. 

Hart's campaign requested a full recount Nov. 13, after unofficial results showed Miller-Meeks leading by 47 votes, a margin of 0.02 percentage points. Incumbent Dave Loebsack (D), who was first elected in 2006, did not seek re-election.

Under the Federal Contested Elections Act of 1969, the challenge will be referred to the House Administration Committee. If the committee recommends the matter to the full House, the chamber will decide the outcome by a majority vote. Article I, Section 5, of the U.S. Constitution says each chamber of Congress "shall be the judge of the elections, returns, and qualifications of its own members." 

Democrats currently control the House and are projected to retain their majority in the 117th Congress.

The House last reversed the results of a state-certified election in 1984 in Indiana’s 8th Congressional District. In that election, Indiana's secretary of state certified Rick McIntyre (R) as the winner over incumbent Frank McCloskey (D) by 34 votes. A three-person task force of House members conducted its own recount and determined McCloskey had won by four votes. The Democratic-controlled House of Representatives voted 236 to 190 to award the seat to McClosky, with all votes in favor from Democrats and 180 Republicans and 10 Democrats voting to seat McIntyre. McCloskey was sworn into office in May 1985, six months after the general election. After that vote, Republicans protested by walking out of the chamber.

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Kwanza Hall wins runoff election to fill remainder of John Lewis' term in Georgia's 5th Congressional District

Kwanza Hall (D) defeated Robert Franklin (D) in a special runoff election Dec. 1 in Georgia's 5th Congressional District, 54% to 46%. Hall succeeds John Lewis (D), who died on July 17. 

Hall and Franklin were the top-two finishers in a field of seven candidates in a Sept. 29 special election. Nikema Williams (D)—who won the general election in the district Nov. 3—did not run in the special election.

Hall was sworn in to the U.S. House on Dec. 3 and will serve for 31 days—until the entire 117th Congress takes office on Jan. 3, 2021. Last cycle, Brenda Jones (D) served in the U.S. House from Nov. 29, 2018, to Jan. 3, 2019, after winning the special election in Michigan's 13th Congressional District to succeed John Conyers (D). Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D) won the 2018 Democratic primary in the district's regular election and succeeded Jones in January 2019.

This was the last congressional special election held in 2020 to fill vacancies in the 116th Congress. Ten such elections were called and held since January 2019, eight for seats in the House and two in the Senate. 

Candidates from the party that previously represented the district won seven of eight U.S. House special elections since 2019. The only House seat to change hands during this period was in California's 25th Congressional District, where Mike Garcia (R) won a special election May 12. Katie Hill (D) had represented that district until her resignation in November 2019. 

In special U.S. Senate elections, Mark Kelly (D) defeated incumbent Martha McSally (R) on Nov. 3 in Arizona. Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) appointed McSally to the Senate in December 2018 to fill the unexpired term of John McCain (R). 

The outcome of the other U.S. Senate special election has not yet been determined. Incumbent Kelly Loeffler (R) faces Raphael Warnock (D) in a runoff election on Jan. 5, 2021, after no candidate received a majority of the vote Nov. 3. Gov. Brian Kemp (R) appointed Loeffler to the seat in January after Johnny Isakson (R) resigned at the end of 2019.

Forty-eight congressional special elections—an average of 12 every two years—have been held since the start of the 113th Congress in January 2013.

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