From Jeremy Ben-Ami, J Street <[email protected]>
Subject Israel's election: What comes next?
Date September 19, 2019 8:07 PM
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[ ]J Street [ ]
Friend --

For the second time this year, an Israeli election has ended in a virtual
deadlock between the major parties and political blocs. And, once again,
the results leave us highly uncertain about what will come next.

Here’s what we do know: Prime Minister Netanyahu called this election
because he wanted to secure a clear majority of 61 seats for himself and
his right-wing bloc -- and he failed.

Today, his political position is considerably worse than it was before the
polls closed on Tuesday, and worse than it was following the election in
April. Without the majority he wanted, he cannot secure immunity from
prosecution on charges of corruption -- and could ultimately stand trial.

"We can stand together in defense of our Jewish and democratic values, and
make clear that we’re determined to bring an end not only to the era of
Netanyahu, but also to the era of Trump, and to the era of unending
conflict and occupation."

In the final weeks of the election campaign -- and even on Election Day
itself -- Netanyahu pulled every shameless trick he could think of:
promising annexation of the Jordan Valley and ultimately all the
settlements; seeking to put cameras in polling stations to suppress the
Arab vote; and leading vitriolic incitement against Israel’s Arab
population and its political leaders. This strategy appears to have
backfired -- helping to inspire higher Arab-Israeli turnout that hurt
Netanyahu.

It’s important and encouraging for Israeli democracy that Netanyahu failed
to achieve his aim, and that millions of Israelis rejected his extreme,
anti-democratic rhetoric and tactics. It’s a reminder that Israeli society
remains deeply divided. While defenders of democracy have been under
sustained attack from Netanyahu and his allies, they still have the
capacity to fight back -- and need all of the support we can give them to
help win that fight.

At the same time, this election result by itself does not guarantee that
Netanyahu’s days of political power are over -- or tell us exactly what
the composition, policies and priorities of the next Israeli government
will be. Nor does it mean we’re likely to see a major change in the status
quo when it comes to the occupation or the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Weeks of coalition negotiations between the major parties lie ahead, and
the most likely outcome is a “unity government” that would share power
between former IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz’s Blue and White party
(which won the most seats), Likud, and Avigdor Lieberman’s secular-right
Yisrael Beiteinu party. While the positions of Blue and White on the
Palestinian issue are still up in the air, any government that includes so
many right-wing leaders and MKs is very unlikely to accept a move away
from permanent occupation or toward a two-state solution.

The Trump administration also remains a dangerous wildcard. It has
promised to release its “peace vision” after the election. Based on
everything the administration has said and done so far, it’s clear that
this vision won’t include a viable two-state peace agreement, but will
instead endorse permanent occupation -- and potentially give the green
light to Israeli annexation in areas of the West Bank.

One thing remains clear: the Trump team isn’t giving up. Today, Jason
Greenblatt heads to Israel to discuss the administration’s plans with both
Netanyahu and Gantz. While Blue and White is far more likely than Likud to
listen to the protests of the Israeli security establishment and to be
cautious in its actions, there is still a real risk that the next Israeli
government would consider partial annexation in the West Bank --
especially if encouraged or invited to do so by President Trump.

For J Street, our work now becomes vitally important. We will urge
Congress, presidential candidates and American Jewish leaders to send a
clear message to Israeli political leaders during the coalition
negotiations: The status quo of unending occupation is disastrous for
Israel and deeply unjust for Palestinians. Any West Bank annexations would
lead to major consequences for the US-Israel relationship. To secure its
future as a democratic homeland for the Jewish people, Israel must return
to a path that leads toward the creation of a viable Palestinian state.

Depending on the precise timing of coalition negotiations, [ [link removed] ]J Street’s
National Conference -- coming up in Washington, DC from October 26-29 --
will take place shortly before or shortly after the formation of the new
government. By showing up in large numbers in Washington and rallying with
presidential candidates, congressional leaders and our Israeli and
Palestinian partners, we can support our many allies who want to lead the
way to a better future.

We can stand together in defense of our Jewish and democratic values, and
make clear that we’re determined to bring an end not only to the era of
Netanyahu, but also to the era of Trump, and to the era of unending
conflict and occupation.

Thank you for standing with our movement,

Jeremy Ben-Ami
President, J Street

P.S. I really hope you’ll join us at the National Conference next month --
it’s no exaggeration to say it’s our most important gathering yet. [ [link removed] ]You
can register now with code BETHERE to receive a 20% discount.


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© 2019 J Street | [ [link removed] ]www.jstreet.org | [email protected]

J Street is the political home for pro-Israel, pro-peace Americans who want
Israel to be secure, democratic and the national home of the Jewish people.
Working in American politics and the Jewish community, we advocate policies that
advance shared US and Israeli interests as well as Jewish and democratic values,
leading to a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.



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