| From | Institute of Economic Affairs <[email protected]> |
| Subject | Tiers before Christmas |
| Date | November 29, 2020 8:59 AM |
Links have been removed from this email. Learn more in the FAQ.
Links have been removed from this email. Learn more in the FAQ.
**
------------------------------------------------------------
* TALKING POINT, BY MARK LITTLEWOOD
* THE COST OF COVID
* TIERS BEFORE CHRISTMAS
* MAKE THE BREAKTHROUGH!
* YOU'RE INVITED
Last week, Rishi Sunak laid bare the dire state of the British economy as he unveiled his one-year Spending Review. The fall in GDP caused by the Covid lockdown is set to wipe about 11 per cent off output. It could be several years before the economy returns to its early 2020 levels. Unsurprisingly, the public finances are in a desperate state. The budget deficit this year alone will be around £400bn – about £20,000 per household.
Hikes in tax rates would inevitably depress any return of meaningful growth and might not do much to close the deficit anyway. We have pretty much reached the taxable limits of the UK economy and, as the Laffer curve suggests, higher rates may even lead to falling revenues. I hosted an expert panel shortly after the Chancellor's speech, which you can catch up on here ([link removed]) .
[link removed]
What is to be done? As the great Milton Friedman once said, "Only a crisis – actual or perceived –produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing policies, to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes the politically inevitable."
The only bone I might pick with Friedman is that think tanks need to do more than simply keep ideas "lying around". They need to keep them fresh, relevant and accessible. The IEA is doing this in spades. Our YouTube channel ([link removed]) has attracted hundreds of thousands of viewers this year, our research programme continues to "think the unthinkable" and our programmes team ensure IEA thinking is taken to academics, teachers and students across the land. As you will see from this newsletter, spokespeople from the Institute are also spreading free market ideas through the mainstream media on a daily basis.
Thanks for all your support. Please continue to help us by sharing IEA material through any platforms and social media networks you can access. Also, if you’re able to make a donation ([link removed]) to help our work, we would be enormously grateful.
Stay safe and stay free. As much as you can.
Mark Littlewood
Director General, Institute of Economic Affairs
THE COST OF COVID
In response to the Chancellor's announcement at the 2020 Spending Review of a partial freeze on public sector pay, IEA Editorial and Research Fellow Professor Len Shackleton said that the decision "makes sense in the current climate". Len questioned whether the government's "retro" job creation schemes would have more than a marginal impact on employment.
[link removed]
Government intervention, however justified by health concerns, has created the current economic situation, Len added. "The answer is not yet more intervention, but rather to allow businesses maximum freedom to reorient and rebuild".
Meanwhile, IEA Academic and Research Director Professor Syed Kamall responded to the decision to cut back on the foreign aid budget, saying that it should be determined "by affordability and effectiveness rather than by an arbitrary target". Read Syed and Len's comments on the Spending Review in full here ([link removed]) .
Writing for the Daily Mail ([link removed]) this weekend, IEA Head of Lifestyle Economics Christopher Snowdon expressed concern that measures were being imposed without any impact assessments or cost-benefit analyses. He asked: "Where are the 'reasonable worst-case scenarios' for unemployment, bankruptcies, debt, economic growth and mental health?" Read his piece here ([link removed]) .
New figures from HM Revenue and Customs have revealed that 160m discounted meals were consumed in August thanks to the "Eat Out to Help Out" scheme – at a cost of £849m. Responding to the news, IEA Economics Fellow Julian Jessop told The Telegraph ([link removed].) :
"Some of the cash will have subsidised meals that would have been bought anyway. Some of the rest may simply have diverted spending from other activities. We will never know for sure, but it seems unlikely that this was a sensible use of £849m."
TIERS BEFORE CHRISTMAS
This week, the government announced that it will be bringing back a harsher 'three-tier system' of measures when lockdown ends. The new rules will see almost 99 per cent of England plunged back into Tier 2 or Tier 3 restrictions.
[link removed]
IEA Head of Lifestyle Economics Christopher Snowdon flagged the impact these measures will have on the hospitality sector. Tier 2 restrictions, which include a ban on households mixing inside hospitality venues and the requirement for venues only to serve drinks with a 'substantial meal,' will act as "a death sentence" for countless pubs and restaurants with no possibility of compensation, Christopher said.
You can read Christopher's full comments, which were featured in The Times ([link removed]) , Daily Mail ([link removed]) , Sky News ([link removed]) , as well as a number of regional outlets, here ([link removed]) . He also appeared on RT News and talkRadio to discuss the new measures.
Chris also wrote a briefing paper 'Pubs and Covid-19: Flawed claims and faulty reasoning', which you can read here ([link removed]) .
MAKE THE BREAKTHROUGH!
The IEA’s RICHARD KOCH BREAKTHROUGH PRIZE 20/21 – one of the UK’s major economics prizes – will be launched on Monday.
The essay competition, which carries a first prize of £50,000 – plus student and highly commended prizes – will seek answers to one of Britain’s most pressing issues … but we can’t say more just now!
[link removed]
Details will be available at breakthroughprize.org.uk ([link removed]) from tomorrow, Monday November 30th.
Meanwhile, author and businessman Richard Koch, the kind sponsor of the prize, will be one of the guests in a special Live with Littlewood programme on our YouTube channel ([link removed]) on Wednesday at 6pm, where he’ll be joined by Dehenna Davison MP, one of the judges of this year’s competition.
YOU'RE INVITED
* In Conversation with Sir Graham Brady MP
[link removed]
On Monday 30th November at 6pm, the IEA will be hosting Sir Graham Brady MP for the first in our new In Conversation series with senior figures across public life.
IEA Director General Mark Littlewood will chair the discussion, which will be livestreamed on our YouTube channel ([link removed]) .
Sir Graham Brady has served as the Conservative MP for Altrincham and Sale West since 1997, and is Chair of the 1922 committee of Conservative backbenchers. As an outspoken critic of the more stringent coronavirus lockdown measures, Sir Graham will speak about why he believes we need to pay more attention to the implications for the economy, our health and peoples’ fundamental rights and freedoms, as well as discuss his views on the political landscape more generally.
* IEA Book Launch: After Brexit, What Next? Trade, Regulation and Economic Growth
[link removed]
On Thursday 10th December from 1-2pm, the IEA will host Professor Patrick Minford and Dr David Meenagh for the launch their forthcoming book “After Brexit, What Next? Trade, Regulation and Economic Growth”.
As the UK reaches crunch time on its relationship with the rest of the world, the timely book sets out a comprehensive policy programme, for both ‘microeconomic’ supply-side settings of tax and regulatory systems, and ‘macroeconomic’ policies for fiscal and monetary policies to regulate demand and support the supply-side growth agenda.
IEA Head of Education Dr Stephen Davies will also join the discussion, which will be chaired by IEA Academic and Research Director Professor Syed Kamall.
IEA Book Club Members will have exclusive access to the Zoom Webinar, and therefore the Q&A. For the public, this webinar will be livestreamed on our Youtube channel, which can be found here ([link removed]) .
To find out more about the IEA Book Club, please visit the link here ([link removed]) or contact us at [email protected] (mailto:[email protected])
* ... and in case you missed it...
[link removed]
The recent IEA Book Club Webinar with Broadcaster, Political Commentator and Author Iain Dale is now available to watch on our YouTube channel. Iain discussed his latest book, "The Prime Ministers: 55 Leaders, 55 Authors, 300 Years of History," a much-needed reminder about their motivations, failures and achievements. Watch here ([link removed]) .
YOUR CHANCE TO WIN!
*The Future of European Tax Competition Prize
Would you like to win €3000? Then enter The Future of European Tax Essay Competition to be in with the chance of nabbing the grand prize!
[link removed]
EPICENTER – the IEA’s network of European think tanks – is looking for new, innovative ideas on how tax regimes across Europe can become more competitive and driven by key liberal values of efficiency, neutrality, and fairness. Participants should answer one of the following questions:
1. What post-pandemic tax reforms should be implemented in the EU and across member states to encourage economic growth?
2. What are the building blocks of a successful tax policy that could be adopted by European countries? Explain what taxes should be determined on an EU level and why?
The competition deadline is 18th December and interested participants can register here ([link removed]) .
For more details, head to EPICENTER’s website ([link removed]) . Please address any queries to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) .
* The Budget Challenge and Monetary Policy Essay Prize
[link removed]
The Budget Challenge ([link removed])
Teams of up to four A-level students can submit a Budget with taxation and spending policy for the UK in the coming financial year, as well as a brief analysis of the macroeconomic conditions with a broad policy and strategy response. There is a prize of £1,000 for the winning team and their school.
Deadline: Friday 29^th January 2021; please submit to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected])
Monetary Policy Essay Prize ([link removed])
Will the pandemic be inflationary or disinflationary? The understanding of how central banks make policy decisions is key to analyse a modern economy, particularly since the outbreak of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008/09.
This competition offers a unique opportunity to contribute to the better understanding of money and its role in the making of monetary policy. The Essay Prize is open to current Year 12 and Year 13 students as well as all Undergraduate and Postgraduate Students at UK universities. There are prizes up to £500.
Deadline: Monday 18^th January 2021; please submit to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected])
============================================================
With a little help from our friends...
These are difficult times for every individual and organisation, including the IEA. Understandably, your priorities will be to look after your loved ones, your family, your work or your business.
** ([link removed])
But if you do have a little extra cash available to help the IEA during these uncertain times, your contribution – no matter how small – would be deeply appreciated.
As an educational charity, the work we do work is entirely funded by donations. If you are able to help please click ** here ([link removed])
or contact ** [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]?body=Dear%20Angela%2C)
. Thank you.
And why not get Amazon to donate too? All you have to do is to start shopping on ** [link removed] ([link removed])
and pick the IEA as your chosen charity. The IEA will then receive 0.5% of your spending on most items. Everything else remains the same (and at no additional cost to you).
** Twitter ([link removed])
** Facebook ([link removed])
** LinkedIn ([link removed])
You are receiving this email from the Institute of Economic Affairs
** Unsubscribe ([link removed])
from this list.
© 2020 Institute of Economic Affairs
Institute of Economic Affairs 2 Lord North Street London, London SW1P 3LB United Kingdom
Registered in England 755502, Charity No. CC/235 351, Limited by Guarantee
** Forward ([link removed])
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This email was sent to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected])
why did I get this? ([link removed]) unsubscribe from this list ([link removed]) update subscription preferences ([link removed])
Institute of Economic Affairs . 2 Lord North Street . London, London SW1P 3LB . United Kingdom
------------------------------------------------------------
* TALKING POINT, BY MARK LITTLEWOOD
* THE COST OF COVID
* TIERS BEFORE CHRISTMAS
* MAKE THE BREAKTHROUGH!
* YOU'RE INVITED
Last week, Rishi Sunak laid bare the dire state of the British economy as he unveiled his one-year Spending Review. The fall in GDP caused by the Covid lockdown is set to wipe about 11 per cent off output. It could be several years before the economy returns to its early 2020 levels. Unsurprisingly, the public finances are in a desperate state. The budget deficit this year alone will be around £400bn – about £20,000 per household.
Hikes in tax rates would inevitably depress any return of meaningful growth and might not do much to close the deficit anyway. We have pretty much reached the taxable limits of the UK economy and, as the Laffer curve suggests, higher rates may even lead to falling revenues. I hosted an expert panel shortly after the Chancellor's speech, which you can catch up on here ([link removed]) .
[link removed]
What is to be done? As the great Milton Friedman once said, "Only a crisis – actual or perceived –produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing policies, to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes the politically inevitable."
The only bone I might pick with Friedman is that think tanks need to do more than simply keep ideas "lying around". They need to keep them fresh, relevant and accessible. The IEA is doing this in spades. Our YouTube channel ([link removed]) has attracted hundreds of thousands of viewers this year, our research programme continues to "think the unthinkable" and our programmes team ensure IEA thinking is taken to academics, teachers and students across the land. As you will see from this newsletter, spokespeople from the Institute are also spreading free market ideas through the mainstream media on a daily basis.
Thanks for all your support. Please continue to help us by sharing IEA material through any platforms and social media networks you can access. Also, if you’re able to make a donation ([link removed]) to help our work, we would be enormously grateful.
Stay safe and stay free. As much as you can.
Mark Littlewood
Director General, Institute of Economic Affairs
THE COST OF COVID
In response to the Chancellor's announcement at the 2020 Spending Review of a partial freeze on public sector pay, IEA Editorial and Research Fellow Professor Len Shackleton said that the decision "makes sense in the current climate". Len questioned whether the government's "retro" job creation schemes would have more than a marginal impact on employment.
[link removed]
Government intervention, however justified by health concerns, has created the current economic situation, Len added. "The answer is not yet more intervention, but rather to allow businesses maximum freedom to reorient and rebuild".
Meanwhile, IEA Academic and Research Director Professor Syed Kamall responded to the decision to cut back on the foreign aid budget, saying that it should be determined "by affordability and effectiveness rather than by an arbitrary target". Read Syed and Len's comments on the Spending Review in full here ([link removed]) .
Writing for the Daily Mail ([link removed]) this weekend, IEA Head of Lifestyle Economics Christopher Snowdon expressed concern that measures were being imposed without any impact assessments or cost-benefit analyses. He asked: "Where are the 'reasonable worst-case scenarios' for unemployment, bankruptcies, debt, economic growth and mental health?" Read his piece here ([link removed]) .
New figures from HM Revenue and Customs have revealed that 160m discounted meals were consumed in August thanks to the "Eat Out to Help Out" scheme – at a cost of £849m. Responding to the news, IEA Economics Fellow Julian Jessop told The Telegraph ([link removed].) :
"Some of the cash will have subsidised meals that would have been bought anyway. Some of the rest may simply have diverted spending from other activities. We will never know for sure, but it seems unlikely that this was a sensible use of £849m."
TIERS BEFORE CHRISTMAS
This week, the government announced that it will be bringing back a harsher 'three-tier system' of measures when lockdown ends. The new rules will see almost 99 per cent of England plunged back into Tier 2 or Tier 3 restrictions.
[link removed]
IEA Head of Lifestyle Economics Christopher Snowdon flagged the impact these measures will have on the hospitality sector. Tier 2 restrictions, which include a ban on households mixing inside hospitality venues and the requirement for venues only to serve drinks with a 'substantial meal,' will act as "a death sentence" for countless pubs and restaurants with no possibility of compensation, Christopher said.
You can read Christopher's full comments, which were featured in The Times ([link removed]) , Daily Mail ([link removed]) , Sky News ([link removed]) , as well as a number of regional outlets, here ([link removed]) . He also appeared on RT News and talkRadio to discuss the new measures.
Chris also wrote a briefing paper 'Pubs and Covid-19: Flawed claims and faulty reasoning', which you can read here ([link removed]) .
MAKE THE BREAKTHROUGH!
The IEA’s RICHARD KOCH BREAKTHROUGH PRIZE 20/21 – one of the UK’s major economics prizes – will be launched on Monday.
The essay competition, which carries a first prize of £50,000 – plus student and highly commended prizes – will seek answers to one of Britain’s most pressing issues … but we can’t say more just now!
[link removed]
Details will be available at breakthroughprize.org.uk ([link removed]) from tomorrow, Monday November 30th.
Meanwhile, author and businessman Richard Koch, the kind sponsor of the prize, will be one of the guests in a special Live with Littlewood programme on our YouTube channel ([link removed]) on Wednesday at 6pm, where he’ll be joined by Dehenna Davison MP, one of the judges of this year’s competition.
YOU'RE INVITED
* In Conversation with Sir Graham Brady MP
[link removed]
On Monday 30th November at 6pm, the IEA will be hosting Sir Graham Brady MP for the first in our new In Conversation series with senior figures across public life.
IEA Director General Mark Littlewood will chair the discussion, which will be livestreamed on our YouTube channel ([link removed]) .
Sir Graham Brady has served as the Conservative MP for Altrincham and Sale West since 1997, and is Chair of the 1922 committee of Conservative backbenchers. As an outspoken critic of the more stringent coronavirus lockdown measures, Sir Graham will speak about why he believes we need to pay more attention to the implications for the economy, our health and peoples’ fundamental rights and freedoms, as well as discuss his views on the political landscape more generally.
* IEA Book Launch: After Brexit, What Next? Trade, Regulation and Economic Growth
[link removed]
On Thursday 10th December from 1-2pm, the IEA will host Professor Patrick Minford and Dr David Meenagh for the launch their forthcoming book “After Brexit, What Next? Trade, Regulation and Economic Growth”.
As the UK reaches crunch time on its relationship with the rest of the world, the timely book sets out a comprehensive policy programme, for both ‘microeconomic’ supply-side settings of tax and regulatory systems, and ‘macroeconomic’ policies for fiscal and monetary policies to regulate demand and support the supply-side growth agenda.
IEA Head of Education Dr Stephen Davies will also join the discussion, which will be chaired by IEA Academic and Research Director Professor Syed Kamall.
IEA Book Club Members will have exclusive access to the Zoom Webinar, and therefore the Q&A. For the public, this webinar will be livestreamed on our Youtube channel, which can be found here ([link removed]) .
To find out more about the IEA Book Club, please visit the link here ([link removed]) or contact us at [email protected] (mailto:[email protected])
* ... and in case you missed it...
[link removed]
The recent IEA Book Club Webinar with Broadcaster, Political Commentator and Author Iain Dale is now available to watch on our YouTube channel. Iain discussed his latest book, "The Prime Ministers: 55 Leaders, 55 Authors, 300 Years of History," a much-needed reminder about their motivations, failures and achievements. Watch here ([link removed]) .
YOUR CHANCE TO WIN!
*The Future of European Tax Competition Prize
Would you like to win €3000? Then enter The Future of European Tax Essay Competition to be in with the chance of nabbing the grand prize!
[link removed]
EPICENTER – the IEA’s network of European think tanks – is looking for new, innovative ideas on how tax regimes across Europe can become more competitive and driven by key liberal values of efficiency, neutrality, and fairness. Participants should answer one of the following questions:
1. What post-pandemic tax reforms should be implemented in the EU and across member states to encourage economic growth?
2. What are the building blocks of a successful tax policy that could be adopted by European countries? Explain what taxes should be determined on an EU level and why?
The competition deadline is 18th December and interested participants can register here ([link removed]) .
For more details, head to EPICENTER’s website ([link removed]) . Please address any queries to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) .
* The Budget Challenge and Monetary Policy Essay Prize
[link removed]
The Budget Challenge ([link removed])
Teams of up to four A-level students can submit a Budget with taxation and spending policy for the UK in the coming financial year, as well as a brief analysis of the macroeconomic conditions with a broad policy and strategy response. There is a prize of £1,000 for the winning team and their school.
Deadline: Friday 29^th January 2021; please submit to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected])
Monetary Policy Essay Prize ([link removed])
Will the pandemic be inflationary or disinflationary? The understanding of how central banks make policy decisions is key to analyse a modern economy, particularly since the outbreak of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008/09.
This competition offers a unique opportunity to contribute to the better understanding of money and its role in the making of monetary policy. The Essay Prize is open to current Year 12 and Year 13 students as well as all Undergraduate and Postgraduate Students at UK universities. There are prizes up to £500.
Deadline: Monday 18^th January 2021; please submit to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected])
============================================================
With a little help from our friends...
These are difficult times for every individual and organisation, including the IEA. Understandably, your priorities will be to look after your loved ones, your family, your work or your business.
** ([link removed])
But if you do have a little extra cash available to help the IEA during these uncertain times, your contribution – no matter how small – would be deeply appreciated.
As an educational charity, the work we do work is entirely funded by donations. If you are able to help please click ** here ([link removed])
or contact ** [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]?body=Dear%20Angela%2C)
. Thank you.
And why not get Amazon to donate too? All you have to do is to start shopping on ** [link removed] ([link removed])
and pick the IEA as your chosen charity. The IEA will then receive 0.5% of your spending on most items. Everything else remains the same (and at no additional cost to you).
** Twitter ([link removed])
** Facebook ([link removed])
** LinkedIn ([link removed])
You are receiving this email from the Institute of Economic Affairs
** Unsubscribe ([link removed])
from this list.
© 2020 Institute of Economic Affairs
Institute of Economic Affairs 2 Lord North Street London, London SW1P 3LB United Kingdom
Registered in England 755502, Charity No. CC/235 351, Limited by Guarantee
** Forward ([link removed])
this email to a friend
This email was sent to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected])
why did I get this? ([link removed]) unsubscribe from this list ([link removed]) update subscription preferences ([link removed])
Institute of Economic Affairs . 2 Lord North Street . London, London SW1P 3LB . United Kingdom
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