"The Fox News Decision Desk can now project that Democrats will retain control of the House of Representatives and expand their majority by at least five seats." – Fox News on election night
"Democrats are most likely to maintain control with the most likely outcome range: Democratic net gain of 14-20 seats." – Inside Elections House pre-election forecast
"Overall, our ratings show the Democrats netting 10 seats from the 233 they currently hold (assuming Democrats hold a safe-seat vacancy), or an eight-seat gain from the 235 Democrats won in 2018." – Sabato's Crystal Ball pre-election forecast
"We now view a Democratic net gain of 10 to 15 seats as the likeliest outcome, with anything from five to 20 seats well within the realm of possibility." – The Cook Political Report pre-election forecast
"Jack Kersting came the closest at 238 seats. FiveThirtyEight clocked in at 239 seats. The Economist model predicted that Democrats would win a median of 244 seats in their simulations." – CNN forecast recap
Friend,
The so-called experts predicted Democrats would expand their majority in November.
Democrats currently control 232 out of the 435 seats, with 218 needed for a majority. While Democrats did maintain the majority, it was a far cry from the 10 to 20 seats they were supposed to pick up on Election Night.
Several states are still counting and certifying ballots, but right now Democrats are projected to only have 222 seats to Republicans 210 (including a run-off in Louisiana where both candidates are Republicans). Three races are yet to be determined, with the Republican candidate leading in each race (CA-25, IA-02 and NY-22).
Speaker Pelosi – should she actually win the speakership in January – will have the slimmest majority in two decades. Earlier this year, Congressman Mike Garcia won a special election in California, making it Republicans' first California pickup since 1998. Now, it looks like we could flip two more.
And all of this places Republicans in an even better position to take back the House in 2022. Our Republican candidates outperformed the polls and the pundits in districts across the country, winning back seats we were supposed to lose and flipping others we weren't supposed to win.
Much of the credit goes to some incredible candidates that ran strong races and reflected the values of their district. But we also couldn't have been this successful without supporters like you.
Still, Republicans were outspent in 2020. Earlier this year POLITICO reported that "Republican nominees have been outspent this cycle by their Democratic opponents in 48 of the top 64 most competitive House races — and two dozen of them were outspent by a 2-to-1 margin or greater."
So while we made great strides in 2020, we've got to be ready to win even more seats in 2022, and that starts today. Just like this year, Republicans will not only be running against their Democratic opponents in two years, but they'll be running against the pundits, the pollsters, and the Democratic war chest. But I know that with your help, we can prove them wrong again.
Will you commit today to defeat Democrats in two years? A one-time contribution will help us end the year strong and prepare us for more victories in 2022. You can also set up monthly contributions. Just $10, $25 or $50 a month can make sure we have continued resources. And you'll be making a significant impact throughout the election cycle.
My priority in the upcoming Congress will be fighting for our Kansas values and constitutional liberties, but we need to be prepared to take back the House. What you do today can make a difference on Nov. 8, 2022.
Sincerely,
Rep. Ron Estes
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P.S. Consider setting up recurring contributions. Just $50, $25 or $10 a month will help us ensure victories here in Kansas and across the country.
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