** WELCOME TO THE MONDAY, NOV. 23, _BREW_.
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** HERE’S WHAT’S IN STORE FOR YOU AS YOU START YOUR DAY:
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* Looking ahead to the Georgia runoffs
* Joe Biden wins 15 trifecta states in 2020, Donald Trump wins 20
* 10% of open Congressional seats changed party hands in 2020
I hope everyone has a good, safe Thanksgiving week. We’ll be back tomorrow for one more Brew and then again the following Monday, Nov. 30.[link removed]
** LOOKING AHEAD TO THE GEORGIA RUNOFFS
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Republicans have secured 50 seats in the next U.S. Senate and Democrats 48 (including two independents who caucus with them). CONTROL OF THE SENATE WILL NOW COME DOWN TO GEORGIA'S RUNOFF ELECTIONS, WHICH WILL BE HELD ON JAN. 5, 2021.
With that in mind, I wanted to take a minute to give some background on what has led up to the runoffs so far:
Georgia was the only state to hold two Senate elections in 2020: a regularly scheduled election ([link removed]) and a special election ([link removed]) to complete the term Johnny Isakson (R) won in 2016.
Gov. Brian Kemp (R) appointed Kelly Loeffler (R) to succeed Isakson, who resigned at the end of 2019. She and Raphael Warnock (D), senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church, are running to complete the term ending in January 2023.
David Perdue (R), first elected in 2014, is seeking re-election in the other race. He faces Jon Ossoff (D), who ran against Karen Handel (R) in the 6th Congressional District special election in 2017. Georgia holds runoffs when no candidate receives a majority of the vote in the general election.
Here are a couple FAQs about Georgia runoffs. View them all here. ([link removed])
* WHY DOES GEORGIA HOLD RUNOFFS FOR U.S. SENATE?
* Georgia's legislature passed a law in 1964 requiring runoffs for general elections in which no candidate receives a majority of the vote. The top-two finishers in the general election advance to the runoff. Runoff elections are required for all congressional, state executive, and state legislative elections in which a candidate does not receive a majority in the general election.
* WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME GEORGIA HELD SENATE RUNOFFS?
* Two other Senate runoffs took place before these ones. In 2008, Saxby Chambliss (R) won re-election in a runoff. The first Senate runoff occurred in 1992, where incumbent Wyche Fowler (D) lost in the runoff.
Stay tuned next week for a special announcement about our coverage of these races.
> KEEP READING ([link removed])
** JOE BIDEN WINS 15 TRIFECTA STATES IN 2020, DONALD TRUMP WINS 20
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We’re continuing our post-election analysis ([link removed]) with a look at the number of trifecta states Joe Biden and Donald Trump won. A trifecta occurs when one political party holds the governorship and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature.
Trump won 20 Republican trifectas and Biden won three. Biden also won the statewide vote in all 15 Democratic trifecta states.
[link removed]
Two divided government states gained Republican trifecta status following the 2020 elections. Joe Biden (D) won New Hampshire, which gained a Republican trifecta when Republicans won majorities in the state legislature. Donald Trump (R) won Montana, which gained a Republican trifecta when Greg Gianforte (R) won the governorship.
Besides New Hampshire, Biden also won in Arizona, which has had a Republican trifecta since 2009.
After the 2020 elections, the Republican Party picked up two trifectas, pending results in Alaska. If the results remain, it will create a trifecta landscape with 23 Republican states, 15 Democrats, and 11 states with divided governments.
For a more detailed analysis of state trifectas and the 2020 presidential vote, click the link below.
> KEEP READING ([link removed])
[link removed]'s_The_Ballot_Bulletin
** 10% OF OPEN CONGRESSIONAL SEATS CHANGED PARTY HANDS IN 2020
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The average U.S. Senate incumbent re-election rate ([link removed]) from 2000 to 2018 is 86%, while it is 94% for the U.S. House. A seat is more likely to change party hands if it is open. Let's take a look at the races with no incumbent this year.
Forty congressional incumbents—four in the Senate and 36 in the House—did not run for re-election this year. Of the 40 open seats that resulted, FOUR (10%) CHANGED PARTY HANDS AS A RESULT OF THE 2020 ELECTIONS, and an additional three races were still too close to call as of Nov. 18. All four changes occurred in the House, where Democrats picked up three seats held by Republicans and Republicans picked up one seat held by a Libertarian.
In 2018, 56 congressional incumbents did not run for re-election. Of those open seats, 14 (25%) changed party hands.
The group of 40 incumbents who did not run for re-election included 10 Democrats, 29 Republicans, and one Libertarian. They represented 8.5% of all 470 Congressional offices up for election.
Across all 2020 congressional elections, 16 seats changed hands. Democrats picked up two seats in the Senate while Republicans picked up one. In the House, Democrats picked up three seats while Republicans picked up 10 seats.
> KEEP READING ([link removed])
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