John,

It’s been another important month in the world of geopolitics, and we’re filling you in on the biggest developments from political hotspots around the globe. 

China and the U.S. are continuing to butt heads, creating fears of a wider conflict. Ethiopia’s civil war is escalating, threatening a regional war and serious humanitarian crisis. The Trump administration and Iran are continuing to move pieces on the geopolitical chessboard, while the President seeks a reduction in American commitments abroad. 

Catch up on everything you missed, and make sure to share your thoughts using our comment box below. 

[READ] HENRY KISSINGER WARNS AGAINST POTENTIAL US-CHINA CONFLICT

The bottom line: “Unless there is some basis for some cooperative action, the world will slide into a catastrophe comparable to World War I,” Kissinger said during the opening session of the Bloomberg New Economy Forum. He said military technologies available today would make such a crisis “even more difficult to control” than those of earlier eras.

“America and China are now drifting increasingly toward confrontation, and they’re conducting their diplomacy in a confrontational way,” the 97-year-old Kissinger said in an interview with Bloomberg News Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait. “The danger is that some crisis will occur that will go beyond rhetoric into actual military conflict.”

[READ] TAKE A LOOK INSIDE CHINA’S ONLINE FENTANYL NETWORK

The bottom line: “For years, China has been a primary source of fentanyl trafficked into the United States. It is a powerful prescription drug for severe pain that's made and sold illegally. It led to more than 37,000 overdose deaths in the U.S. in 2019, part of a national opioid crisis that has worsened this year during the coronavirus pandemic, according to federal health authorities...Chinese vendors have tapped into online networks to brazenly market fentanyl analogs and the precursor chemicals used to make fentanyl, and ship them directly to customers in the U.S. and Europe as well as to Mexican cartels, according to an NPR investigation and research from the Center for Advanced Defense Studies, or C4ADS, a nonprofit data analysis group.”

[READ] FEDERAL GOVERNMENT PLANS FINAL OFFENSIVE AGAINST TIGRAYAN REBELS

The bottom line: “Ethiopia’s prime minister warned on Tuesday that a deadline for rebel northern forces to lay down arms had expired, paving the way for an advance on the Tigray region’s capital in a two-week conflict shaking the Horn of Africa.”

The bottom line: “Risks of the increasingly bloody war in northern Ethiopia turning into a chaotic regional conflict rose sharply this weekend after rocket strikes on the airport in neighboring Eritrea’s capital, Asmara.

Multiple rockets struck Asmara on Saturday night, diplomats and informed regional observers said, though communication restrictions in Tigray and Eritrea made the reports difficult to verify.”

The bottom line: “President Donald Trump asked advisers about options for a military strike against Iran last week, but held off ordering an operation that would inflame Middle East tensions during his last two months in office, according to reports.

Trump explored the idea of a military strike against Iran over an inspection report showing Tehran had stepped up the means to make nuclear weapons, according to The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal.”

The bottom line: “Any U.S. attack on Iran would face a “crushing” response, an Iranian government spokesman said on Tuesday, following reports U.S. President Donald Trump asked for options for a strike on Iran’s main nuclear site last week but decided against doing so.

“Any action against the Iranian nation would certainly face a crushing response,” spokesman Ali Rabiei said, in remarks streamed on an official government website.

Citing a U.S. official, Reuters reported on Monday that Trump, with two months left in office, conferred with top advisers about the possibility of attacking the Natanz uranium enrichment plant - but was dissuaded by them from that option.”

The bottom line: “President Donald Trump may withdraw nearly all U.S. troops from Somalia as part of a global pullback that could see major reductions in Afghanistan and a slight drawdown in Iraq, U.S. officials told Reuters on Tuesday.

The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that nothing had been finalized and that no orders have been received by the U.S. military. However, there appeared to be a growing expectation on Tuesday that drawdown orders would be coming soon.”

Do you think the U.S. should continue drawing down our troops in the Middle East?

Use the comment box below to share your thoughts.

As always, thanks for reading. You’ll be hearing from us soon. 

-Gallagher Foreign Policy HQ