FACT CHECK
Toby Young wrong to claim the Covid-19 fatality rate is just 0.1%
In a now-deleted tweet, writer and commentator Toby Young wrongly claimed a study published in Royal Society Open Science, found that Covid-19’s infection fatality rate (IFR) is just 0.1%, which he said was comparable to seasonal flu.
As many people on Twitter had pointed out, and Mr Young subsequently acknowledged, his calculation for the IFR of Covid-19 was incorrect.
If over 5 million people had caught the virus in the UK by August, as the study argued, and you then applied the current death toll of around 50,000 people, you would get an IFR of around 1%, not 0.1%. (The current figure for deaths within 28 days of a positive test is over 52,000).
However, it’s worth noting that both the study and the Daily Mail article Mr Young cited had already assumed an infection fatality rate of 0.76%. In fact, that’s how the study calculated its figure for how many people in the UK have been infected—by “backcasting” from death figures up to the end of August and applying an estimated IFR.
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