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Unsanitized: The COVID-19 Report for Nov. 18, 2020

Lack of Economic Relief Is Costing Lives

Plus, the latest on vaccines

 

Mitch McConnell's delay on economic relief has deadly effects. (Caroline
Brehman/CQ Roll Call via AP Images)

First Response

Days after the election, Mitch McConnell publicly stated that the lame
duck session was the time for a coronavirus relief package to assist the
American people in a time of growing need. That was right before the
November jobs report, when he remarked that the (actually not all that
)
positive numbers reinforced his preference of making that assistance
targeted at those who need it.

To my knowledge that was the last time McConnell has mentioned this at
all. Instead of putting anything on economic relief up for a vote in the
Senate, the past two weeks have been the usual parade of roll call votes
on judicial nominations, along with one doomed attempt to confirm Judy
Shelton to the Federal Reserve (I wrote up that saga
,
which is very much about coronavirus: in short, Republican nonchalance
about the virus cost them the opportunity to fill this seat). McConnell
surely knew in advance he wasn't going to get Shelton confirmed
yesterday, although it was clarifying to him to see how close the vote
would be. But this could have been time spent hammering out a deal.

We have some confirmation that no time has been spent in that manner,
from Democratic leaders Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi. They're
requesting McConnell's presence in negotiations
,
something he has not done previously. Their main point, of course, is
that the coronavirus is raging through the country right now,
particularly in Republican areas. With Republican leaders finally
relenting on restrictions

to prevent the spread, monetary relief is needed more than ever. Add on
top of that key measures that will expire as the lame duck session
expires: the eviction moratorium, the freeze on student loan payments
,
and unemployment benefits for an estimated 12 million Americans
.

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There's no ambiguity over what to do, but McConnell holds the key to
actually doing it. The federal coronavirus task force just yesterday
told Vice President Pence that we're on track for 2,000 Americans
dying every day

in short order, and that the best mitigation measure to prevent
overwhelming the health system is to close bars and in-person
restaurants from serving customers.

We've known this for months
,
and studies have backed it up (A CDC study shows COVID patients in one
sample twice as likely
to have eaten at a
restaurant recently). But states have made only halting attempts,
preferring to reduce capacity rather than shut everything down. The
reason why is obvious, as Annie Lowrey explains
:
the government has provided no support to these establishments, or to
the states and cities that rely on sales tax revenue from them. Without
the assurance of compensation, bars and restaurants forced to close
again will simply cease to exist. There's not even a Paycheck
Protection Program, which was too meager the first time around and
didn't prevent businesses from failing
,
as a bridge until the danger passes.

We Can't Do This Without You

The saddest thing about this is that this time we really do need a
bridge, albeit one that lasts about six months. Positive signs on
vaccines (more on that below) have put an actual time limit on federal
aid
.
The problem with the CARES Act was that it was temporary, too temporary
to be of use when the real hazards would emerge in the fall. Now we have
a completely different situation, where we need a temporary set of
massive support until we get everyone vaccinated and crush the virus.

In the absence of that, policymakers are putting economic sustainability
ahead of public safety. They have little choice, because the alternative
is total ruin, which would have its own health impact. Small businesses
have to keep operating as death traps because they can't shut down and
lose their livelihoods. Workers have to come in and do their jobs
despite the hazards, as there's no boosted unemployment left. Cities
can't demand a total closure, or at least are resisting it, because
they have no other source of revenue coming in. "Economic stimulus is
a neglected and under-utilized public health tool," as Lowrey writes.

We know from the summer that states reliant on sales tax revenue
reopened prematurely from the spring lockdowns
,
leading to the second wave of cases. The third wave is much, much worse
than the second. And yet we sit with nothing. Mitch McConnell has been
described by less formal political commentators as something like a
merchant of death. By denying stimulus, in this case he is literally
one.

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Vaccine News

As noted above, what makes the death march right now so painful is the
good news on the scientific side. Pfizer released another round of data

showing that their vaccine is safe as well as effective
.
In fact, it raised the effectiveness rate to 95 percent, on par with the
Moderna vaccine. The Phase 3 trial still needs peer review, but
regardless, you can expect an emergency use authorization request from
Pfizer "within days," and probably not much longer for Moderna.

The Food and Drug Administration has scheduled meetings for a vaccine
advisory group for three days in early December
,
where the topic of discussion is expected to be the vaccines. I would
expect an authorization coming out of those meetings, if all goes well.
That's only the beginning of this process, which as I've seen is the
biggest logistical undertaking known to mankind. The manufacturing,
transportation, and distribution

to every corner of the globe will require unprecedented precision and
coordination. Still, it's far more hopeful to worry about getting the
vaccine to everyone than to worry about having a vaccine.

Days Without a Bailout Oversight Chair

236
.

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Today I Learned

* Chuck Grassley is 87 years old, the oldest man in the Senate
, and
he has coronavirus. The oldest man in the House, Don Young of Alaska,
also has it. (Twitter)

* A whopping 83 percent of U.S. counties

are seeing rising infections, with the biggest rises in rural counties.
(Axios)

* North Dakota has set the highest mortality rate from COVID-19

in the entire world, and second is South Dakota. (HuffPost)

* Meatpacking workers with COVID symptoms being asked to come in to work
.
(Jacobin)

* First at-home test for coronavirus

authorized. (Politico)

* Trump's angry about not getting credit

for the vaccine. (The Daily Beast)

* How coronavirus is spurring child labor
.
(North Carolina Health News)

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