No Surprises in Gubernatorial Races, and Republicans Pick Up Montana
There were no surprises in this year’s gubernatorial elections.
As expected, incumbent governors won reelection in every race across the country that featured an incumbent. Only two races, Montana and Utah, did not have an incumbent. As expected, Utah elected Republican Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox to replace outgoing Gov. Gary Herbert (R). In Montana, this year’s only pre-election toss-up, Republican candidate Greg Gianforte defeated Democrat Mike Cooney by nearly 12 percentage points—a margin of victory that was perhaps the election’s only true surprise. Gianforte’s election represents a flip for Republicans as the state’s current Gov. Steve Bullock is a Democrat.
As there were relatively few changes in party control, it is unlikely major policy changes will be driven exclusively by state level policymakers at this time. With a change in the Presidency however, states could begin to make changes to policies that require state and federal cooperation. For instance, one issue to keep an eye on is Medicaid expansion in North Carolina. Re-elected Gov. Roy Cooper (D) has been in a battle with the Republican-controlled legislature over the adoption of expanding Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act for several years. While a Medicaid expansion plan is not expected to move forward any time soon as many expect a continued stalemate, some have speculated that a Biden administration could pressure or incentivize the state to adopt expansion. Similarly, it is unlikely a Biden administration would continue to approve Medicaid work requirements,
continue pursuing lawsuits to uphold work requirements that were struck down in courts, or approve partial Medicaid expansion plans like those recently approved in Georgia.
