Joe Biden presidential campaign, 2020 (photo by Gage Skidmore)

Welcome to the Federal Tap

Saturday, November 14, 2020

Good morning!

Welcome to this week's edition of the Federal Tap. Former Vice President Joe Biden is projected to win the presidency, we take a look at presidential margins of victory in the 206 Pivot Counties, and so much more.

See our selection of stories below and click the button for a full review of the week and what's on tap for the week ahead!

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Biden projected to win at least 290 electoral votes

As of Nov. 13, former Vice President Joe Biden (D) was projected to win at least 290 electoral votes, crossing the threshold necessary to win a majority in the Electoral College. President Donald Trump (R) is projected to win at least 217.
Two states remain too close to call:
- Georgia: With more than 98% of votes counted, Biden is leading Trump by 14,149 votes. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) announced on Wednesday that Georgia will conduct a hand-count audit of the state's presidential election results. The target date for completing the audit will be Nov. 20, the state's certification deadline.
- North Carolina: Mail ballots postmarked by Nov. 3 were accepted until Nov. 12. Trump is leading by 1.3 percentage points, with an estimated 98% of votes counted.

Georgia elections to determine partisan control of U.S. Senate

As of Nov. 13, there are two uncalled elections for seats in the U.S. Senate—the regular and special elections in Georgia. Republicans will have at least 50 seats in the chamber and Democrats, at least 48 (which includes two independent Senators who caucus with them).
Democrats would need to win both Senate races in Georgia to split control of the Senate 50-50. This would give them an effective majority as the vice president casts tie-breaking votes in the Senate. Republicans need to win one seat to maintain their majority.
Georgia is one of two states, alongside Louisiana, that hold runoffs if no candidate receives a majority of the vote in a general election. Four of the five national outlets Ballotpedia is using to call races have called incumbent Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) and Raphael Warnock (D) as proceeding to a Jan. 5 special election runoff. Two have called Sen. David Perdue (R) and Jon Ossoff (D) as proceeding to a runoff in the regularly scheduled election.
No more seats flipped party control this week as races in Alaska, North Carolina, and Maine were called for incumbents. These three seats changed parties:
- Tommy Tuberville (R) defeated incumbent Sen. Doug Jones (D) in Alabama.
- Mark Kelly (D) defeated incumbent Martha McSally (R) in Arizona's special election.
- John Hickenlooper (D) defeated incumbent Sen. Cory Gardner (R) in Colorado.

Democrats maintain majority in U.S. House, 15 races remain uncalled

As of Nov. 13, the winners of 420 of 435 U.S. House races have been determined. Democrats have won 218 seats, maintaining their majority in the chamber. Republicans have won 202 seats.
Republicans have flipped nine seats, including one held by a Libertarian in 2020, and Democrats have flipped three seats. Last week, we reported that 10 seats had changed partisan control. The new ones for this week are:
- California's 48th: Republican Michelle Steel defeated incumbent Harley Rouda (D).
- Georgia's 7th: Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) won the open seat. Incumbent Rob Woodall (R) didn't seek re-election.

Secretary of state orders hand-count audit of Georgia’s presidential election results

On Nov. 11, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) announced that Georgia would conduct a hand-count audit of its presidential election results. The target date for completing the audit is Nov. 20, the state's certification deadline.
- Rep. Doug Collins (R), the Trump campaign's recount manager in Georgia, and David Shafer, chairman of the state Republican Party, sent a letter on Nov. 10 requesting that Raffensperger order a statewide hand recount in advance of the certification of results.
- As of 11 a.m. on Nov. 13, Joe Biden (D) led Donald Trump (R) by a margin of 14,163 votes out of 4,992,062 total votes cast, according to unofficial returns.
- To date, Ballotpedia has tracked 17 lawsuits, spanning five states, that directly involve one of the two major presidential campaigns. For more information, click here.

President Trump names Christopher C. Miller acting secretary of defense

President Donald Trump (R) announced that Christopher C. Miller would be acting U.S. Secretary of Defense on Nov. 9, following the termination of Mark Esper.
Christopher C. Miller had been serving as the director of the National Counterterrorism Center since Aug. 10. Miller previously served as the Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Counterterrorism and Transnational Threats at the National Security Council from 2018 to 2019.
Mark Esper had served as the secretary of defense since July 23, 2019, until his termination on Nov. 9, 2020. Trump nominated Esper to the position on July 15, 2019, and the U.S. Senate confirmed him by a vote of 90-8.

A look at presidential margins of victory in the 206 Pivot Counties

Pivot Counties are the 206 counties nationwide that Ballotpedia identified as having voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and Donald Trump (R) in 2016.
In 2020, we split the Pivot Counties into two categories based on unofficial results:
- Retained Pivot Counties, which voted for Trump again in 2020, and
- Boomerang Pivot Counties, which voted for Joe Biden (D) this cycle
Our preliminary analysis shows the following breakdown of the 206 Pivot Counties:
- 175 Retained Pivot Counties
- 20 Boomerang Pivot Counties
- 11 unclear or too-close-to-call
Based on results as of Nov. 12, Trump won the 175 Retained Pivot Counties with an average margin of victory of 14.8 percentage points.
- Compared to his 2016 results, Trump's margin of victory decreased in 50 Retained Pivot Counties and increased in 125.
- Trump’s largest gains compared to 2016 are in Woodruff County, Arkansas, where his margin increased by 19.2 percentage points from 8.9 in 2016 to 28.1 this year.
Based on results as of Nov. 12, Biden won the 20 Boomerang Pivot Counties with an average margin of victory of 3.1 percentage points.
- Compared to Obama's results in 2012, the last time a Democrat won in these counties, Biden's margin of victory represents a decrease in 18 and an increase in two.
- Biden’s largest gains compared to Hillary Clinton’s (D) margins in 2016 are in Ziebach County, South Dakota, with a 10.5 percentage point change to Biden. The county gave Trump a 2.0 margin in 2016 compared to an 8.5 margin for Biden this year.

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Supreme Court hears three hours of oral argument, considers ACA's individual mandate

The Supreme Court heard three hours of arguments this week via teleconference with live audio. The court made the decision to hold proceedings this way in accordance with public health guidance in response to COVID-19.
November 9
- Niz-Chavez v. Barr concerns (1) the government's ability to serve a notice to appear to a non-citizen and (2) the immigration stop-time rule, where a non-citizen's accrual of continuous residence ends when that person is served with a notice to appear.
- Brownback v. King concerns the judgment bar of the Federal Tort Claims Act (FTCA). The FTCA judgment bar provision says: "The judgment in an action under section 1346(b) of this title shall constitute a complete bar to any action by the claimant, by reason of the same subject matter, against the employee of the government whose act or omission gave rise to the claim."
November 10
- California v. Texas concerns the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as Obamacare. In 2018, 20 states filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas challenging the individual mandate and claiming the ACA was unconstitutional. A district court judge ruled the law was invalid. On appeal, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit ruled the individual mandate was unconstitutional and remanded the case. A group of states petitioned the U.S. Supreme Court for review, arguing (1) the respondents did not have the legal right to challenge the law, and (2) the law was constitutional.

Ninety-six current members of Congress have served in the armed forces

Ninety-six members—18%—of the 116th Congress (pre-Nov. 3 election) have served in the armed forces. Of those, 66 are Republicans, and 30 are Democrats. Fourteen of these veterans retired or sought other offices in the 2020 elections, meaning they will not return for the 117th Congress in January.
Of the others, 66 won their re-election campaigns, six were Senators not up for re-election this year, and six are in races that are not yet called. Four—Sen. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.), Steve Watkins (R-Kan.), Collin Peterson (D-Minn.), and Denver Riggleman (R-Va.)—lost their bid for re-election.
Of the 96 veterans serving in the 116th Congress, 73 served on active duty with one of the four main branches of the service—15 in the Air Force, 36 in the Army, 15 in the Marine Corps, and eight in the Navy.
- U.S. Rep. Steven Palazzo (R-Miss.) served in both the Army and Marine Corps.
- Twelve members of Congress served in the National Guard, and 11 have served in the reserves.
- According to the American Enterprise Institute, there were 100 veterans in the 115th Congress and 101 in the 114th Congress.
President Woodrow Wilson (D) recognized November 11 as Armistice Day in 1919 to commemorate the armistice agreement that ended World War I in 1918. Congress recognized Nov. 11 as a legal holiday to honor veterans of World War I in 1926. It changed the name from Armistice Day to Veteran's Day in 1954 to further commemorate the service of veterans in World War II and the Korean War.

U.S. Senate confirms two to federal district court judgeships

The U.S. Senate confirmed James Knepp II to the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Ohio and Aileen Cannon to the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida. The Northern District of Ohio and the Southern District of Florida are two of 94 U.S. District Courts. They are the general trial courts of the United States federal courts.
Knepp was confirmed by a 64-24 vote. After he receives his federal judicial commission and takes his judicial oath, the 11-member court will have six Democrat-appointed judges, four Republican-appointed judges, and one vacancy. Knepp will join one other judge appointed by President Trump.
Cannon was confirmed by a 56-21 vote. After she receives her federal judicial commission and takes her judicial oath, the 18-member court will have seven Democrat-appointed judges, 10 Republican-appointed judges, and one vacancy. Cannon will join four other judges appointed by President Trump.
The U.S. Senate has confirmed 222 of President Trump’s Article III judicial nominees—three Supreme Court justices, 53 appellate court judges, 164 district court judges, and two U.S. Court of International Trade judges—since January 2017.

Congress is in session	SCOTUS is in session
The House and Senate are in session next week. Click here to see the full calendar for the second session of the 116th Congress.	The Supreme Court will not hear oral arguments this week. To learn about the 2020-2021 term, click here.

Where was the President last week?	Federal Judiciary
President Trump remained in Washington, D.C. On Wednesday, Trump participated in a National Veterans Day Observance at Arlington National Cemetery in Virginia.	65 federal judicial vacancies 40 pending nominations 3 future federal judicial vacancies

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