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Unsanitized: The COVID-19 Report for Nov. 9, 2020

Vaccine News Should Make People More Cautious of COVID

Plus, Biden kicks off his task force

 

Pfizer's results are promising, but any vaccine is at least six months
away from being available to everyone. (Charles Guerin/Sipa via AP
Images)

First Response

This is news we've been hoping for, but didn't know when it would
come. It's important to begin with the point that this is preliminary
and not deeply reviewed data, and it's coming from a press release.
But Pfizer is out this morning saying that an early look at its Phase 3
trial for the coronavirus vaccine shows that there's been a 90 percent
effectiveness rate

at preventing infection. When I talked to experts a couple months ago,
the expectation was that an approved vaccine would be 70-75 percent
effective.

There were no further details given, other than the statistic that 94
infections had been recorded thus far among the 44,000 participants in
the study. I believe half of them are given a placebo. Nobody has become
"severely" ill. Pfizer has said that it needs 164 COVID infections
to complete the study and understand the efficacy of the vaccine.

The drugmaker didn't give any real information on the safety of the
vaccine itself, like whether it has caused any side effects in trial
participants. (It's just said that the vaccine is safe.) And the
efficacy data wasn't broken down by subgroup, to see whether it works
well for people or color or the elderly, for example.

The other vaccine makers took federal funding from Operation Warp Speed
but Pfizer did not
,
incidentally, although its partner BioNTech received funding from the
German government, and the guaranteed market for a vaccine also makes it
easy for them to use their own development dollars. At any rate
they'll be using OWS' logistics to move the vaccine around the
world; 60 Minutes had a good segment

on that last night.

Pfizer said it was on track to file an emergency use authorization with
the Food and Drug Administration and other governments by the end of the
month, which would put approval near the end of the year. The company
has only a limited supply (in other words, not 6 billion doses) to
start, so there will be early rationing of the vaccine, to essential
healthcare workers and vulnerable populations like residents of nursing
homes. We're talking 6-8 months before this vaccine would get into the
arms of the general population.

That hasn't stopped Mr. Market from going wild; Dow Jones futures
soared as much as 1,500 points
within an hour of the announcement. And that leaves me a little bit
concerned.

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There's going to be a natural assumption that things can quickly go
back to normal once the vaccine is announced. But things are anything
but normal right now, and the vaccine is many months from being
available. The numbers are rising exponentially
.
We had a million new infections in just the past 10 days. There were
over 100,000 cases added on Sunday, typically the day with the least
reporting. And we've just been through a week with 60 million people
voting in person
,
mostly indoors, followed by a series of close-quarters street
celebrations for the winner. As the weather cools, we could have another
100,000 dead by Inauguration Day, at least.

I stoked a little controversy
by comparing
those "We Beat Trump" parties to students at Notre Dame storming the
field after the football team defeated Clemson; but selective moralizing
aside, people should just not be congregating at all right now. I know
there's research about masking and outdoor events, and claims that the
George Floyd protests were not deadly. That was a completely different
situation than the one we're experiencing with the virus right
now.  

The promise of a vaccine should make people more cautious rather than
less. It means there's a chance to get through this terrible situation
without ever having the virus, if you just practice social distancing,
wear masks, don't eat indoors at a restaurant, wash your hands, and
the like for a few more months. We're getting precariously close to a
point of triage, where the health system will be overwhelmed. That alone
will cause more unnecessary deaths. Keeping the system working will
allow the medical profession to apply what it's learned and save
lives.

That people have COVID fatigue is obvious. Humans are social creatures
and they crave companionship. It's unnatural to distance for this
long. But this vaccine data should give people the energy to do exactly
that.

We Can't Do This Without You

Biden Gets to Work

Speaking of Biden, he announced his coronavirus task force
on Monday.
Eleven of the twelve members are medical doctors, which is completely on
brand with listening to the science. Drs. Vivek Murthy (former surgeon
general) and David Kessler (former FDA commissioner) are the co-chairs
.

The task force can't really do anything of value until January, and
they'll be trying to hit a moving target, as we have no idea what the
state of the virus will look like by then (though we know it's likely
to get worse
,
especially given the inattention paid to it of late). It's a "shadow
government" type of apparatus that can criticize the federal response
and offer a new vision, but that's about it. Biden hasn't even been
given the go-ahead

by the director of the General Services Administration that he won the
election, freezing his transition team out of the government, including
access to federal funds and the ability to communicate with executive
branch agencies.

The task force has a tough but not impossible job. Indeed we know how to
beat the virus
, and
today's announcement on Pfizer makes it easier (if you call having to
manage the largest logistical project in the history of mankind
"easy"). The biggest things they can do unilaterally include
procurement (using the Defense Production Act in the way it's intended
to focus national resources) and data collection (having the government
actually be an authority on the virus statistics for a change). A
contact tracing corps is at the heart of Biden's thinking but you need
to get the virus under more control for that to be effective. Rejoining
the WHO would allow the U.S. to access more supplies.

The problem, of course, will be securing the funding from a skeptical
Senate Republican caucus, and having a checked-out president provide no
leadership through January as the virus burns through the country. And
don't get me started on the economic challenges
.

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Look at Me

I was on Your Call on KALW discussing the election on Friday; listen
here
.
Bad Faith Pod with Virgil Texas and Briahna Gray Joy had me on, also
about the election; it's a premium episode but you can see a clip here
. I also
joined the Ralph Nader Radio Hour to talk election; that's available
here .

Days Without a Bailout Oversight Chair

227
.

It's A Good Time To Donate!

Today I Learned

* The cytokine storm hypothesis for some COVID deaths may not be
accurate
.
(New York Times)

* People on the edge of poverty already are tipping over
.
(CNBC)

* Utah's governor issues a state of emergency

and a mask mandate, the first sign of seriousness from red America. (The
Hill)

* Trump never took the virus seriously

as a factor in his re-election. (Politico)

* PPP fraud was rampant
,
which was to be expected; the bigger problem, I'd argue, is that the
program didn't help anyone much. (Wall Street Journal)

* Will the Fed need to go bigger

because of divided government? (Barron's)

* Rachel Maddow is under quarantine
.
(Bloomberg)

* Passenger airplanes are mainly cargo shippers

of cheese and other items. (CNBC)

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