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October, 2020, Florida County Republican Registrations Report and Elections Analysis
©Stephen R. Meyer, Vero Beach, Florida, November, 2020
Issued 11/07/20
- Congratulations to all who helped give President Trump a Florida victory.
- There was a stunning change that took place in the vote in Miami-Dade County! Of President Trump’s 262,091 net increase in vote margin over that of 2016 (using preliminary vote information), 205,318 of the margin gain (again using preliminary vote information) came from Miami-Dade County!
- To put this huge Miami-Dade County gain into context, the next largest margin gain took place in Osceola County, another Democrat stronghold, at an 11,373 margin gain over that of 2016 (again using preliminary vote information)!
- Congratulations to Hendry County for joining the ranks of the now 49 Florida Counties where the number of Republican registrations outnumber the number of Democrat registrations!
- Roughly half of Florida counties did not post October registration numbers so October’s numbers will not be reported this month, but they will be incorporated into November’s report.
- Analysis of the vote will be undertaken once vote counts have been made official.
- With the major networks calling the election for Mr. Biden, there will be a knee-jerk reaction for Republicans to divorce themselves from the political realm. I’m not sure of the reliability of the information, but there exists a source saying that President Trump used the election as a giant sting operation and that there is overwhelming and undeniable proof of fraud in a significant number of states and counties. This is no time to divorce from politics. This may be the best time to get involved.
The following is an excerpt from a November 5th email from The Republican Party of Florida (RPOF):
“Tuesday’s impressive results were a direct reflection on the entire Republican Party of Florida team effort, which saw record numbers of volunteers knocking on doors, making phone calls, putting up signs and donating their talents in myriad other ways. And it was a reflection of strong Party leadership from Governor Ron DeSantis, Chairman Joe Gruters, Senate-designate Wilton Simpson and House Speaker-designate Chris Sprowls working just as hard and investing in local campaigns across the state.”
Unless the RPOF spent an inordinate amount of time, effort and money in Miami-Dade County, the causative claim made in the above paragraph should be tempered. My guess, with an emphasis on guess, is that the Democrats’ embracing of fascism/socialism/communism caused a significant number of Miami-Dade County residents to shift their vote (and many registrations) from the Democrats to the Republicans.
Voter registrations efforts tend to slow following presidential elections as Republican Executive Committees focus on board formation and recovering from the hustle and bustle of the recent election. Republican Executive Committees (RECs) should adopt a “continuous improvement” mindset. Continuous improvement efforts are by definition continuous; therefore there is never a time to “rest on your laurels”.
Owing to the loss of Republican market share in the states of Arizona (-3.5% from 2016), Georgia (-5.09% from 2016), North Carolina (-3.66% from 2016), and Texas (-3.19% from 2016), it is crucial for Florida Republicans to understand why Florida is gaining market share (+2.19% from 2016) while these aforementioned states are losing Republican market share. This would allow us to disseminate the information to the above mentioned states which are critical to future Republican success. Again, please note that the vote information is based on preliminary election results.
A significant tailwind for Florida Republicans dates back to the 2011 legislative season. In 2011, Florida eliminated the Department of Community Affairs. The Department of Community Affairs was the enforcement arm of Florida’s anti-growth effort, an effort that became operational in the mid-1990s. The implementation of Florida anti-growth laws paralleled a significant loss of Republican market share in Florida. The elimination of the Department of Community Affairs allowed counties, such as the Republican tigers of Lee, Pasco, Marion, Collier, Santa Rosa, Polk, Volusia, Lake, Citrus, Manatee, Sumter, Hernando, Charlotte, Nassau, Flagler, Walton, Highlands, Putnam, Columbia, Monroe, and St. Lucie to create greater amounts of two favorable Republican habitats; areas with high homeownership rates and areas where people of average means are able to afford to marry, buy a home, and raise a family.
With REC elections coming up, it is also critical to choose REC boards that champion the creation of Republican habitat, and even more importantly, choose boards who oppose the creation of Democrat habitat, which are areas of low homeownership rates, caused by high prices or undesirability, with a corresponding relatively high percentage of the population of people who rent their housing.
A table (see attachment) was created which ranks Florida Counties by Republican registrations relative to Democrat registrations at the time of bookclosing, and the Republican vote margins for the 2020, 2016 and 2012 general elections. The table was produced to show: 1) how counties are doing relative to the other Florida counties over time; 2) the correlation between changes in county’s rank based on registrations and the change in the actual vote; and 3) the trends in these rankings to observe which counties are over-performing and under-performing. Some of the higher-performing counties will be highlighted using bold print. It may be helpful to print the table and highlight counties of interest as the table is rather busy.
