Pivot Counties: "Where are they now?"
On Saturday, Joe Biden (D) was projected to have won the presidential election by the five national outlets Ballotpedia has used to call races in 2020—ABC, CNN, FOX, NBC, and The New York Times.
Following the 2016 presidential election, we found 206 counties across the country that Barack Obama (D) won in 2008 and 2012 and Donald Trump (R) won in 2016. According to early results, in 2020, Joe Biden won back 22 Pivot Counties for a Democratic candidate. Donald Trump won again in 174 Pivot Counties.
Note: The following analysis is based on preliminary results as of November 6. There are about 3,112 counties in the country (including D.C. and independent cities, and not including Alaska). As of this writing, many counties had not certified their results, and 133 of them had not reported vote totals. We expect these numbers to change a bit when results are certified.
Retained Pivot Counties
These counties voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 and for Trump in 2016 and 2020 (so, D-D-R-R). In 2020, there were 174 Retained Pivot Counties in 30 states.
Carousel Pivot Counties
These counties voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012, Trump in 2016, and Biden in 2020 (so, D-D-R-D). There were 22 Carousel Pivot Counties in 15 states.
R-R-R-D Counties
Twenty-three counties voted for Republican presidential candidates from 2008 to 2016 (John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump) and for Biden in 2020. These R-R-R-D counties are in 12 states.
D-D-D-R Counties
Nineteen counties voted for Democratic presidential candidates from 2008 to 2016 (Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton) and for Trump in 2020. These D-D-D-R counties are in 8 states.
Additional Pivot tidbits:
- Only one county voted D-R-D-R (Obama, Romney, Clinton, Trump): Kenedy County, Texas.
- Only two counties voted R-D-R-D (McCain, Obama, Trump, Biden): Chaffee, Colorado, and Nash, North Carolina.
- Two counties voted for the winning presidential candidate from 1960 to 2016: Vigo County, Indiana, and Valencia County, New Mexico. Trump won these two counties this cycle.
Based on current projections, once results are certified, a new county will claim the title of Longest Record Voting for the Winning Presidential Candidate:
Clallam, Washington
That county has voted for the winning presidential candidate since 1980. It has a population of 77,331.
- The second place runner-ups are Clay County, Minnesota, and Blaine County, Montana. They have supported the winning presidential candidate since 1992.
- Again, this is based on unofficial results—not all counties are included yet.
There are 16 possible permutations of presidential winners over the past four cycles (McCain-Obama-Trump-Biden, Obama-Romney-Clinton-Trump, etc.). We'll have more info on presidential election results broken down by county later this week.
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