Friend -

As we do every cycle, I wanted to share the USGLC's quick analysis on the connections between the election and America's role in the world.

Given that votes are still being counted in several states on the presidential race, consider this the first "installment" with more to share in the coming days.

Two things I can say unequivocally. First, as the votes continue to be counted in the White House race, Congress will once again be overwhelmingly strong in its bipartisan support for diplomacy, development, and the International Affairs Budget. And second, the global pandemic not only upended the 2020 election, but it clearly impacted voters - both on how they relate to the world and on kitchen table issues.

There's lots to share below, including the new faces that will be coming to Washington in January, what to expect in the lame duck session, and even a sneak peek at the Committee musical chairs.

Read our analysis below - or click here for the full report. And as always, welcome your insights.

Best,

Liz
Liz Schrayer, USGLC

NOVEMBER 5, 2020
In a Nation Divided, Global Pandemic Upends 2020 Election

>> Click here to view the full Congressional analysis

While America is still counting votes, the tumultuous 2020 election will be marked by many firsts - the largest turnout ever with nearly 160 million votes cast, the highest election spending at more than $14 billion, and as we all know - the longest America has waited for the most number of swing states to be called in a modern presidential election!

Yet as pundits continue to analyze the results across America's 3,141 counties, there is little question that COVID-19 became the ultimate demonstration that what happens overseas matters in literally every corner of this country - impacting our health, safety, and economy - and not surprisingly, voters' decisions at the polls. This reality will be a focus point for USGLC in the months ahead - particularly in how voters are relating to the global pandemic and what is happening at kitchen tables in an America more divided than ever.

While votes for the presidential race are still being tallied in several states, there are already important insights and implications emerging from the 2020 results on the nexus between global issues and voters' choices and views.

And even though partisanship is unlikely to recede anytime soon, we certainly expect bipartisan Congressional support to remain strong on diplomacy and global development on Capitol Hill - from both returning champions and lots of new faces.

Over the past 18 months, the USGLC team, through our Impact 2020 initiative has directly met with and engaged more than 300 candidates and their campaigns for Congress. These briefings - led by local business, veteran, faith, and community leaders - had a clear focus this year on the importance of America's development, diplomacy, and global health programs in responding to the global pandemic.

Read below on our take on the election results so far - meet the new faces, and what to expect on Capitol Hill from the 117th Congress.

The Global Pandemic Election

THE ULTIMATE DISRUPTOR. Looking back to March 2020, Vice President Biden became the preeminent Democratic nominee just nine days before President Trump shut down travel from Europe due to COVID-19 and millions of Americans began working from home. Ultimately, the 2020 general election and COVID's upheaval of American life began nearly simultaneously.

* As the global pandemic wore on, COVID became the big disruptor dominating the conversation and nearly every facet of the election - from driving an historic number of early mail-in ballots to upending traditional voter engagement strategies to transforming candidate debates - including plexiglass dividers and Zoom forums.

AMERICANS DIVIDED ON COVID RESPONSE. From early on in the pandemic, a Morning Consult/USGLC survey found that 79% of voters believed it was "very important" to work with other countries to fight diseases that could spread globally. Yet there is no question that as the election drew near, voters increasingly began to split dramatically along party lines over each candidates' prescription for how to respond domestically to COVID-19 in America.

* The cementing of this division is likely borne out most concretely by the exit polls finding that 9 out of 10 voters believed their candidate would handle the coronavirus pandemic better than the opposing candidate - regardless of whom they voted for.

THE WORLD TUNES IN. As Americans started to go to bed in the wee hours of Wednesday morning, the rest of the world started to wake up to witness how American democracy would play out in the midst of the pandemic. On Twitter globally, #Michigan, #Wisconsin, and #USPS all topped the list of globally trending hashtags. And Foreign Policy Magazine reported on Wednesday that "In Europe, everyone seems to be a 'U.S. specialist'."

* Meanwhile, many of the world's top international outlets, including Le Monde, Der Spiegel, The South China Morning Post, and TASS Russian News, continue to lead their front pages with the U.S. election.

The COVID-Upended Economy

"IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID." In a year of a record-breaking economic collapse, even James Carville may never have imagined how his doctrine from 1992 would be experienced through the prism of a global pandemic in 2020 with more than 8 in 10 voters concerned about the economic impact from COVID-19 in an analysis of aggregate polls by FiveThirtyEight.

* Not surprisingly, the party splits on top issues were stark in the exit polls - 82% of those that identified the economy as their top issue supported President Trump and 82% of voters that picked the pandemic supported Vice President Biden. On who voters trusted to handle the economy, the results were even more partisan with 9 out of 10 voters trusting their preferred candidate.

PRE-ELECTION IMF FORECAST. Just two weeks ahead of the election, the IMF's projections for the global GDP decline in 2020 were revised upwards to a 4.4% decline from the 5.2% decline projected in June. Experts cite that the reason for this improvement is largely due to China's anticipated 1.9% GDP growth this year - the only major economy expected grow.

A Country Divided

DEEPENING RURAL-URBAN DIVIDE. Sadly, the divisions between red and blue America appear even further entrenched. While the suburbs became more competitive when comparing 2016 and 2020 exit polls, wide divisions remain between rural and urban America - combined with large gaps between white versus non-white voters and a gender gap that carried over from 2016 into 2020.

* In Wisconsin, a Washington Post analysis found that while Democrats had hoped Biden could win back a portion of the 23 counties that Trump had flipped in 2016, Biden was only able to win back two of those rural counties. Yet the Vice President was still able to carry the state by turning out even more urban voters from Milwaukee and Madison. With a similar trend happening in other states, these geographic political divisions are becoming ingrained from cycle to cycle.

* Yet an August 2020 survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs found some increasing support and convergence on the issue of trade between urban, suburban, and rural Americans. Across geographies, 9 in 10 survey respondents saw international trade as good for relations with other countries - an interesting change from some of the 2016 primary polling in the Midwest.

While all of these divisions are not unique to this particular election, the continuation of this polarization is a wake-up call for all Americans. As Congresswoman Debbie Dingell from a purple district in Michigan said soon after the election, "I think both Republican and Democrats have to look at the divide in this country and both do some serious soul searching." The USGLC is committed to prioritize our efforts in bringing a broad sector of America together in conversation through our Heartland Partnership and nationwide town-hall platforms.

Foreign Aid Not An Election Issue

A NON-ISSUE. After the 2018 election season saw aid to the Northern Triangle countries debated by some campaigns, the 2020 elections were largely void of any significant discussion of foreign aid. And despite the two-party conventions being upended by the pandemic, the parties released platforms which included positive policy positioning on diplomacy and development:

* DEMOCRATS - "TOOL OF FIRST RESORT." The Democratic platform referred to diplomacy as a "tool of first resort;" USAID as the "world's premier development agency," and called for, "urgent, moral obligation and strategic interest to help alleviate suffering around the globe."

* REPUBLICANS - "ADVANCING AMERICA'S INTERESTS." The Republican Party declined to draft a new party platform in 2020, reprising the 2016 platform, which emphasized that "international assistance is a critical tool for advancing America's security and economic interests by preventing conflict, building stability, opening markets for private investment, and responding to suffering and need with compassion."

THE AIR WAR. Out of 6,687 unique Republican and Democratic campaign ads aired in the 2020 cycle, close to 600 - or only about 9% - touched on foreign policy and national security issues. The most common foreign policy themes to emerge included China's role in the pandemic, the reshoring of supply chains, and the role of alliances.

Strong Bipartisan Congressional Support on Diplomacy and Development Continues

THE 117TH. Despite the months of battles and billions spent on the airwaves, the advantage of incumbency remained strong once again with what could be more than 90% of incumbents heading back to Washington come January.

* At present, a number of races remain too close to call, but needless to say a strong cadre of champions for American diplomacy and development will be returning with new reinforcements and supporters. We expect the bicameral tradition of both chambers as leading bipartisan platforms for strengthening America's role in the world to continue with full force.

* Retirements and election outcomes bring the departure of some of legendary champions in the House and Senate and the USGLC offers our sincere gratitude to New York's Chairwoman Nita Lowey (D-NY), Appropriations Committee, and Chairman Eliot Engel (D-NY), Foreign Affairs Committee, in the House.

* For additional details on the House and Senate races and departures, see the USGLC's full Congressional report here (which is being regularly updated as relevant new races are called).

SOPHOMORE SERVICE CORPS. In the House, more than 70 veterans have won their races alongside at least 13 new incoming freshmen. This is on par with past cycles - with a number of races still too close to call.

* Expect some of the new veteran-turned-lawmakers to join ranks of the returning "sophomore" members of the For Country Caucus and the "service corps" members, who previously served at the State Department, CIA, and Defense Department have played an outsized voice in championing the International Affairs Budget during the past few challenging years.

MUSICAL CHAIRS. Even before the votes were cast, this election cycle was already bringing some shifts in the Congressional landscape - particularly in committee leadership:

* House Appropriations Committee - Congresswomen Rosa DeLauro (D-CT), Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL), and Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) are all running to lead the all-important House Appropriations Committee to replace Nita Lowey.

* House Foreign Affairs Committee - Current HFAC members Joaquin Castro (D-TX), Gregory Meeks (D-NY), and Brad Sherman (D-CA) are all vying for the top spot to replace Eliot Engel.

* Senate Budget Committee - Across the Capitol, Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) is competing with Senators Chuck Grassley (R-IA) and Mike Crapo (R-ID) for the top spot on the Budget Committee.

USGLC RISES. From the USGLC community, five State Advisory Committee members from North Carolina, Florida, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Washington will be heading to Washington D.C. to be sworn into the House of Representatives in January. The new Democratic and Republican Members are: Representatives-Elect Deborah Ross (D-NC), Carlos Gimenez (R-FL), Marilyn Strickland (D-WA), Stephanie Bice (R-OK), and Jacob LaTurner (R-KS).

Transition, No Transition?

As of this writing, the presidential election has not been called. Once the race has been finalized, look for additional reporting from the USGLC, including a Transition Update should Vice President Biden be declared the winner.

In the meantime, here are a few critical issues to watch:

IMPACT OF DIVIDED GOVERNMENT? With a Senate chamber that is very likely to remain in Republican majority, we will be watching what happens with control of the White House. A divided government that could grow depending on the final outcome of the presidential race will continue to make it increasingly difficult to get things done.

* One exception to the rule is likely to be the bipartisan legislative agenda on global development - from development finance to global fragility to women's economic empowerment. Expect a growing number of opportunities - particularly on global health - in the 117th Congress.

BUDGET BATTLES AND THE LAME DUCK. Without a Fiscal Year 2021 spending bill passed before December 11th, the federal government will face a partial or full shutdown (which last occurred for 35 days starting in December 2018). Some policymakers anticipate that a new COVID relief package and FY21 could get wrapped into the same negotiations process - which, while streamlined, could make a grand compromise even harder to achieve. See the full report for more details.

GLOBAL PLUM BOOK. Since 2008, the USGLC has created and tracked our own "Global Plum Book" - a take on GAO's Plum Book which lists the federal government's political appointed positions. Look first for highlights from USGLC with the most likely top 100 foreign policy and national security positions in the federal government. Regardless of outcome, this will be followed by profiles and summaries of all of the new or latest picks for each top role from the State Department, USAID, the new U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), and other development agencies.

THE 2024 RACE STARTS IMMEDIATELY. As soon as the race is called, expect Campaign 2024 to begin as potential candidates from the losing party quietly - and perhaps not so quietly - begin the jockeying.

>> Click here to view the full Congressional analysis

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