Initial claims were largely stable both in California and the rest of the country in the week of October 31. Initial claims (not seasonally adjusted) in the regular program were up only 0.2% in the state, while down 0.9% for the country as a whole. Initial claims under PUA were up 19.7% for California, but this bump contributed to a rise of only 1.1% for the nation.

Combined, total initial claims for California were up 3.0% and 0.3% for the US. Total claims have not shown substantial change since the week of August 20 in the rest of the country. The level of claims essentially have remained level in California over the past 3 weeks, but at a higher overall level.

In their latest reports, EDD shows substantially better progress in dealing with the continuing claims backlog. At the rate of the prior week, it would take well over a year to eliminate the initial claims backlog. For the continuing claims backlog, clearance would take 81 days if continued at the prior week rate.

Possible steps towards economic recovery—especially for the lower wage workers that have been hit hardest by the various rounds of closures—remain guided largely by the state’s current tier system under its “Blueprint for a Safer Economy.” Compared to the week of October 12, the most recent tier allocations issued for November 2 show no change in the number of counties under each tier. However, the share of the unemployed—and consequently the ability of these workers to return to a job—has shifted significantly to the most restrictive Tier 1 in this period. In all, the Tier 1 and 2 counties contain 88.5% of unemployed workers in September. Viewed from this perspective, economic recovery prospects especially for the lower income households who have been unable to telework—either due to the nature of their job or as a result of the state’s stricter workplace regulations—have lengthened rather than improved as in much of the rest of the country.

This situation is reflected in the recent unemployment rates by MSA released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim MSA again posted the 6th worst unemployment rate in the country (out of 389 MSAs nationally). In all, 11 California MSAs fell into the 25 worst unemployment rates.