Good afternoon and welcome to my regular South West Surrey update No. 83. As of today, we have a total of 1,099,059 positive cases of COVID-19 with 47,742 confirmed deaths in the UK. There have been 12,129 confirmed cases in Surrey and sadly 835 confirmed deaths, with an estimated 673 active cases in Waverley. All data is accurate as of 11am this morning.

Lockdown 2.0 From today England has re-entered a new four-week lockdown, following parliamentary approval for the restrictions last night. This means that you should stay at home, except for specific purposes, avoid meeting people you do not live with, and that many businesses including pubs and restaurants will now close (although they can stay open for takeaway). I talk about what this means for us all and why this is necessary in my weekly Farnham Herald article which you can read here.

More controversial second time round Interrogating the lockdown data I’m in no doubt that the Prime Minister had little choice but to introduce the second lockdown. But that doesn't mean the data used to persuade the country was up to scratch, and the graph we all saw on Saturday suggesting 4,000 deaths a day was heavily criticised by me and other MPs  at the Science and Technology Select Committee session with Sir Patrick Vallance and Chris Whitty. When we have so much more knowledge about the disease, get people into hospital more quickly and have treatments like dexamethasone why would we be facing a daily death rate four times that in the Spring? It turns out the two key advisers to the PM don't actually think we are, as their very next slide demonstrated with daily hospital admissions projected to be just a quarter higher than the spring. Which rather begs the question as to why they showed the slide if it wasn’t to scare everyone. It turns out the 4,000 figure came from an Oxford/PHE study that itself had already been reduced by more up to date data. The statistician the government claims to love has also piled on the criticism.

My biggest worry is the rise in ‘nosocomial’ infections (those picked up in healthcare settings) which continue to rise. Charts published by SAGE last Friday show a spike at the start of October in the proportion of patients displaying symptoms more than 7 days after hospitalisation. When it is broken down by hospital the numbers are even more alarming with some hospitals having nearly half their patients as people thought to have picked up the virus on site. Overall the figure for the NHS appears to be 18% of COVID hospital patients having caught the virus at their hospital which is frankly shocking, especially when we got it down to virtually 0% in late August/early September. Another reason to urgently introduce weekly testing of NHS staff, something I have again written to Prof Chris Whitty and Prof Steve Powis about today.

Despite this please keep going to any GP or hospital appointments. In the first wave we had one indirect death for every COVID due to things like interrupted cancer treatments - we do not want a repeat.

Unlike last time schools, colleges and universities will remain open to all students. This is not because children and students can’t pick up and spread the virus (which is why the NUT are against this decision) but because of the  consequences for young people and their working parents) of closing educational establishments. Impossible decisions but from a social equity point of view we know poorer children are much more severely impacted by school closures, so I think on balance right.

Care home visitors Some other good news is that all care home residents will be allowed to receive visits from their family and friends in a COVID-secure way – with social distancing and PPE. Care homes had a torrid time in the last lockdown, but hopefully, these new guidelines will keep people safe and improve patients’ mental wellbeing. You can hear me talking about this to Nick Robinson on the Today Programme (0750).

You can find out more about what you can and cannot do on the government website. More clarifications come through each and every day so if you have a question, do keep checking back.

The key number to remember for anyone with pandemic-related difficulties remains 0300 200 1008 the Surrey Helpline run by Surrey County Council (Mon-Fri 9 am to 5 pm).

WHAT’S GOING ON IN WESTMINSTER

A number of big parliamentary moments led up to the big vote yesterday on the new lockdown regulations. On Monday I urged the government to use the lockdown wisely including fixing test and trace by making it more local, introducing weekly testing for NHS staff and moving towards population testing. I elaborated on this further in a Newsnight interview with Mark Durban.  

Today I spoke in a parliamentary debate on the impact of COVID on baby loss, something very close to my heart and which the Select Committee also held a powerful session about on Tuesday. This focused on the impact that the current system of litigation has on safety, learning, and family experiences. Darren Smith, who sadly lost his son Isaac in 2012, told us in very moving testimony that he felt compelled to take legal action as it was the only way to secure an apology from the hospital. My biggest worry is that litigation has a chilling effect on doctors, making them nervous about speaking out openly in case what they say is used subsequently to prove clinical negligence. There is a better way...and it is in Sweden, where Dr Pelle Gustafson explained their system offers candour, an explanation, an apology and compensation.

WHAT’S GOING ON IN SOUTH WEST SURREY

 Bad news for local churches, gyms, tennis courts and golf clubs  Chris Jagger told me this morning his Busbridge tennis club picked up 200 more members during the first lockdown so this has come as a real blow. I am trying to get Chris special dispensation to keep the Cellar Cafe (now renamed the Cellar Camino Cafe and relocated to inside Waverley’s offices in Godalming) open given the lifeline it provides for many vulnerable people - but basically we must follow the advice even if we debate elements of it as is right and proper in a democracy. The importance of following the guidelines was summed up nicely by the Chief Scientific Officer Sir Patrick Vallance yesterday.

See my list of local groups working to support vulnerable residents here.

THE ECONOMY AND JOBS

The Chancellor… will be speaking in the House of Commons in a few hours’ time to extend the 80% furlough scheme for businesses forced to close due to corona restrictions if they have to remain shut after December 2. The 80% furlough will apply in Tier 3 when England returns to its regional lockdown system after the national restrictions come to an end. Previously, Tier 3 furlough was only at 67% of salaries. We are also expecting the Chancellor to announce that this support will apply across the UK and that there might be some additional support for high street stores forced to shut. You can watch it here.

The Bank of England has also announced this morning that it will pump an extra £150bn into the economy as it warned the resurgence of COVID-19 would lead to a slower, bumpier recovery. In some other good news, the Bank also announced that it does not expect the economy to return to a recession, but projections show our GDP taking an 11% hit, more than double the global 5% hit.

WHAT ELSE IS GOING ON

Meanwhile in America… They are still counting the votes in the key swing states to find out who has won the presidential elections. It’s clear that our Waverley late-night leisure centre election counts are far faster and better for the blood pressure than what is happening in the US. As I said on twitter yesterday “The reputation of democracy is at stake and the world is watching.”

And finally a story about how not to rob a house.

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