Daily News Brief
November 4, 2020
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Top of the Agenda
Vote Counting Continues in Close U.S. Election
President Donald J. Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are locked in a tightly contested race for the U.S. presidency, with ongoing vote counts that could take days (NYT).

The election is on track to have the highest turnout in more than a century, despite the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. The Associated Press called the crucial battleground state of Florida for Trump, while projecting that Biden would carry Arizona, long held by the Republican Party. But the outcome in several states, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, has not been decided because millions of mail-in ballots still need to be counted. Trump prematurely claimed victory (WaPo) and vowed to mount a legal challenge after making unsubstantiated claims of fraud in states such as Georgia and Pennsylvania. Biden urged patience and said he believes he is on a path to win. European leaders reacted cautiously (Guardian) to Trump’s claim, with the exception of Slovenia’s right-wing prime minister, who endorsed it.

In Congress, the balance of power will likely remain the same, with Democrats preserving a majority in the House and Republicans keeping their hold on the Senate. Democrats are expected to win Senate races in Arizona and Colorado, while Republicans recaptured Alabama and fended off challenges in Iowa, Montana, and South Carolina. 
Analysis
“Whatever the ultimate outcome of this election, this is a deeply divided country along political and cultural lines alike. Bodes badly for governing at home and for building a consensus as to the country’s role in the world. Sobering by any and every measure,” tweets CFR President Richard N. Haass. 

“It is incumbent on institutions, including the president’s own cabinet, the Republican party, state legislatures and the American judiciary to put their own political passions and preferences to one side. Their first loyalty is to the American democratic process,” the Financial Times’ editorial board writes.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Ethiopia Sends Troops to Northern Region in Major Escalation of Tensions
Addis Ababa ordered military action (Nation) against the government of the autonomous northern region of Tigray, accusing the Tigray People’s Liberation Front of attacking a military base and attempting to steal artillery. The move raised the specter of a war that could destabilize the Horn of Africa (AP). Relations between Tigray and the federal government deteriorated after the region held elections in September despite a federal postponement. 

This CFR Backgrounder looks at the major obstacles threatening democracy in Ethiopia

Uganda: The opposition presidential candidate known as Bobi Wine was arrested for allegedly holding an illegal procession after filing his nomination papers (Reuters). At least fifteen of his supporters were injured and dozens more arrested in clashes with police.

Pacific Rim
Chinese Authorities Halt World’s Biggest IPO
Chinese regulators aborted Ant Group’s initial public offering (WSJ), or IPO, which was set to be the world’s largest stock debut. Ant Group spun out of the Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba, founded by entrepreneur Jack Ma. The company runs China’s biggest e-payment app, Alipay, which has drawn the ire of state-owned banks. 

South Korea: A North Korean man was captured after crossing into South Korea in an apparent bid to defect (Yonhap), South Korean officials said.

South and Central Asia
Prominent TV Anchor Arrested in India
Mumbai police arrested (NYT) a prominent right-wing news anchor for allegedly abetting a suicide in 2018. The arrest was condemned by members of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), who the opposition accused of hypocrisy (ThePrint) for not speaking out against the arrest of another high-profile journalist last month.

Afghanistan: U.S. special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad called on the Taliban and the Afghan government to “unite” in opposition (TOLO) to the self-proclaimed Islamic State and commit to their ongoing peace talks. The Islamic State claimed responsibility for a deadly attack on Kabul University this week.

Middle East and North Africa
Libya’s Rival Groups Agree on Implementation of Cease-Fire Deal
Military officials from Libya’s warring parties agreed to a roadmap (AFP) for implementing a cease-fire agreement struck last month, the UN envoy to the country announced. The two sides agreed to establish a military subcommittee that will oversee the drawdown of their forces and the departure of foreign troops from the front lines. 

Algeria: The country, which currently heads the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), announced its support for extending oil production cuts (Reuters) as the coronavirus pandemic’s resurgence threatens to keep oil prices low. 

This CFR Backgrounder explains OPEC.

Europe
Russia: Two Thousand Middle Eastern Fighters Are in Nagorno-Karabakh
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that about two thousand fighters (AP) from the Middle East have joined Armenia and Azerbaijan’s conflict over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Multiple cease-fire agreements have been broken in the decades-old dispute’s latest flare-up, in which hundreds have died.

Hungary: Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced he would declare a state of emergency (RFE/RL) and impose new restrictions to combat a surge of coronavirus cases.

Americas
Son of Brazil’s Bolsonaro Faces Graft Charges
Brazilian prosecutors have filed graft charges (WSJ) against President Jair Bolsonaro’s son Flavio, who is a senator. Bolsonaro campaigned on a promise to root out corruption but has been dogged by investigations of his family and associates. 

Chile: Interior Minister Victor Perez resigned following accusations that he allowed police to abuse protesters (MercoPress). He is the third interior minister to leave since 2018, and his departure complicates the government’s efforts to rewrite the country’s constitution after Chileans overwhelmingly voted in favor of the move.

Global
U.S. Officially Exits Paris Agreement
The United States is officially no longer a party (NYT) to the Paris Agreement on climate change as of today. President Trump withdrew the United States in 2017, but UN rules delayed its formal departure. 

This CFR Backgrounder looks at the Paris accord and other global climate agreements.
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