Friends,

As the first polls close across the country, I wanted to take a moment to check in and share what we’re expecting throughout the night.

But before I do, let me first say thank you for everything you’ve done to support Kirsten, Off the Sidelines and our incredible candidates this year. We’re so, so grateful.

What to expect:

• Many states will not have complete results on election night—and that’s okay. An increase in mail-in voting means it will likely take states longer to process ballots and report final results. 

• A number of states will include a large share of mail-in/absentee ballots in vote totals reported on election night, including several key swing states. Results in these Presidential and Senate battlegrounds may offer an early indication of broader trends.

  • Arizona (Presidential and Senate battleground)

  • Georgia (Presidential and Senate battleground)

  • North Carolina (Presidential and Senate battleground)

  • Florida (Presidential battleground)

  • Colorado (Senate battleground)

  • Montana (Senate battleground)

• The “red mirage.” Some states, like New York and Alaska, will not report any mail-in votes on election night. And officials in Michigan and Pennsylvania have already set expectations that it will take several days for official counts to be issued. This may create what pundits are calling a “red mirage,” where states look very red on election night, but then turn bluer as mail-in votes are counted in the following days.

• A tight battle for the Senate. Kirsten has been laser-focused on flipping the Senate—and with 23 Republicans defending Senate seats this year, Democrats are competing everywhere from Maine to South Carolina to Montana. Democrats need to net four seats to flip the Senate—and we’re keeping a close eye on over a dozen races.

According to The New York Times, here’s a rough estimate of when you can expect a full count of ballots by Senate battleground state:

Vote totals on election night will include many mail-in ballots
Vote totals on election night will include *some* absentee ballots
Vote totals on election night will include few (or no) mail-in ballots

Senate incumbents to watch:

• Sen. Doug Jones (Alabama)
• Sen. Gary Peters (Michigan)
• Sen. Tina Smith (Minnesota)
• Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (New Hampshire)

Senate challengers to watch:

• Al Gross (Alaska) 
• Mark Kelly (Arizona)
• John Hickenlooper (Colorado) 
• Raphael Warnock (Georgia)
• Jon Ossoff (Georgia) 
• Theresa Greenfield (Iowa)
• Barbara Bollier (Kansas) 
• Amy McGrath (Kentucky)
• Sara Gideon (Maine)
• Mike Espy (Mississippi)
• Steve Bullock (Montana) 
• Cal Cunningham (North Carolina)
• Jaime Harrison (South Carolina)
• MJ Hegar (Texas) 

What’s next:

• Recounts and runoffs. If the vote totals are tight, be prepared for a recount in certain states. Twenty-one states provide for automatic or mandatory recounts (with varying thresholds). We also may see a handful of runoff Senate races. Keep an eye on Georgia, which requires a runoff if no candidate exceeds 50% of the vote count. 

• Stay engaged. There are plenty of unknowns heading into this evening, which can be unsettling. Keep informed and listen to the experts. Here are a few articles I’ve found helpful:

  • How Long Will Vote Counting Take? Estimates and Deadlines in All 50 States | The New York Times

  • The 8 States Where the White House Will Be Won: POLITICO’s Preelection Guide | POLITICO

  • How to Spot a Red or Blue ‘Mirage” in Early Election Night Results | CNN

We’ll keep you posted as we know more,

Stefanie