Special Message - 11/3/2020 - Your Scorecard Tonight

Your Scorecard Tonight!

While national polls have been favorable to Joe Biden, the fact is presidents are not elected based on the national vote. They are elected based on the vote in each state and whether they can accumulate 270 votes in the Electoral College.

A state's votes in the Electoral College are based on its congressional representation. In other words, the number of House members the state has plus two more votes representing its senators.

California, for example, has 55 votes in the Electoral College – 53 for its House members, plus 2 for its senators. All but two states award their presidential electors on a winner-take-all basis.

So how does President Trump win tonight? The simplest option is to win the states he carried four years ago, which would give him 306 Electoral College votes. But there could be some surprises tonight, so let's run through some scenarios.

There are 20 states that we can safely say will vote for President Trump. They are:

Alabama
Alaska
Arkansas
Idaho
Indiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Missouri
Mississippi
Montana
Nebraska
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Utah
West Virginia
Wyoming

These 20 states combined have 127 Electoral College votes (ECVs), leaving President Trump 143 ECVs short.

Now let's assume the president carries three "must win" GOP states: Florida (29 ECVs), Ohio (18 ECVs) and Texas (38 ECVs.) Without any one of these three states, the president's path to reelection would be extremely difficult.

With these three states, Trump would then have 212 Electoral College votes.

That gets us to the 10 toss-up states, with 114 Electoral College votes (ECVs), that are likely to decide the election:

Arizona (11 ECVs)
Georgia (16 ECVs)
Iowa (6 ECVs)
Michigan (16 ECVs)
Minnesota (10 ECVs)
Nevada (6 ECVs)
New Hampshire (4 ECVs)
North Carolina (15 ECVs)
Pennsylvania (20 ECVs)
Wisconsin (10 ECVs)

Of these 10 states, three -- Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina -- have historically voted for Republican presidential candidates. But they are changing demographically, and all three states feature extremely competitive Senate races. They are true battlegrounds this year.

But for now, let's assume they vote based on their historic patterns and support Donald Trump again. Their 42 Electoral College votes would bring Trump's total to 254, just 16 votes short of the 270 needed to secure a majority in the Electoral College.

So then we're down to the following seven states:

Iowa (6 ECVs)
Michigan (16 ECVs)
Minnesota (10 ECVs)
Nevada (6 ECVs)
New Hampshire (4 ECVs)
Pennsylvania (20 ECVs)
Wisconsin (10 ECVs)

As I reported yesterday, there was a great poll for President Trump by the Des Moines Register in Iowa, so let's put Iowa and its six ECVs in the president's column. That would give President Trump 260 Electoral College votes, just 10 short of the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House.

At that point, winning just Michigan or Minnesota or Pennsylvania or Wisconsin alone would guarantee President Trump's reelection.

Or he could win with Nevada and New Hampshire.

Here's another possibility.

What if Joe Biden flips Arizona and North Carolina? We lost the Senate race in Arizona in 2018, and North Carolina voted for Barack Obama in 2008.

If that scenario plays out, Trump would have 234 Electoral College votes, assuming he wins all the other states we have awarded him.

If Trump can flip Nevada, Minnesota and New Hampshire, he's back up to 254 Electoral College votes, and we're back to Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin deciding the election.

Winning either Michigan or Pennsylvania would secure the president's reelection.

If Trump were to lose Michigan and Pennsylvania, but win Wisconsin, he would be 264 votes. If he flipped New Mexico, we would have a tie at 269 Electoral College votes. At that point, the election would be decided by the House of Representatives.

Here's another scenario that could scare us all, and one Democrats are hoping for. What if Georgia and North Carolina are called early this evening for Biden? Is there any way Trump could still win?

Yes, there is.

He would need to hold Arizona, carry Michigan and Pennsylvania, and then win either Minnesota or Wisconsin.

That's just another reminder of why it's so important for everyone to vote, especially our friends out west. Don't let whatever happens east of the Mississippi dissuade you.

We need to crush the left in a landslide, winning as many states as possible, including states like Arizona, Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico.

I also know there are committed conservatives who are fighting hard for California, Colorado, Oregon and Washington. A strong showing in these states would shock the political establishment, and show that the American people are fed up with the far left!

A final note: I have heard reports of polling stations that opened late and long lines, especially in Pennsylvania.

DO NOT LET ANYTHING PREVENT YOU FROM VOTING TODAY!

EVERY VOTE IS ESSENTIAL!

If you had to leave this morning to go to work or to a doctor's appointment, please go back to your polling location and get in line. (The lines probably aren't as bad as they seem due to social distancing.) Everyone who is in line will be allowed to vote.

And if you're in line later this evening, DO NOT GET OUT OF LINE no matter what you hear or read on your phone until you have cast your vote.

MAKE YOUR VOICE HEARD!

VOTE!