Biden definitely wins Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, D.C., Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine (including the Second Congressional District), Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin, which comes to 286 electoral votes.
If Republican chicanery is blocked, he also wins Florida, Georgia,
and Pennsylvania, which brings his total to 351. I think the voters brought out by the ballot measure that would raise the state minimum wage to $15 will tilt Florida to Biden.
And purely on a hunch, I’m giving Biden Ohio, which would bring his total to 369.
If we set Texas aside, that gives Trump 131 electoral votes.
Texas should go to Trump—except for the fact that its pre–November 3 voting, combining mail and drop-off, exceeded its entire 2016 total, which puts Biden in the game. So take Texas’s 38 electoral votes and add it to … whomever.
Senate? Democrats pick up Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina, losing Alabama. There’s about a 40 percent chance that Ossoff clears 50 percent in Georgia; otherwise, he goes into a January runoff, as does Rev. Warnock for the other seat.
By the way, I was completely wrong in 2016.
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