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NDN News: Election Day 2020 Predictions, Reflections and Hopes
Dear Friends,
Top Lines – Here are my 2020 Election predictions, as submitted over the weekend to The Hill’s election prediction contest(am a proud two time winner).
Biden 53% Trump 44%
Biden wins with 356 Electoral College votes
Democrats get to 52 seats in the Senate, and fight out the 2 GA specials
Democrats pick up 8 seats in the House
My election summary: “Overarching message of the election will be that Trump and Trumpism have failed the nation/Republican Party, and a new, more modern path is needed for the party of Lincoln and Reagan. Biden/Harris will have a significant electoral mandate and will work to both repair what Trump broke and lead America forward to tackle our big challenges — defeating COVID-19, standing the economy back up, restoring America’s global standing and fighting rising illiberalism, tackling climate change, modernizing our immigration system and charting a new, better course on race and inequality. Remarkable Democratic success electorally (more votes in 7 of last 8 general elections) and in governing over past generations will become more widely recognized, as will the contrast of this success with the GOP’s decades of failure. “
You can find more of our recent 2020 election analysis here, and review a video of my last 2020 Poll Roundup presentation from last Friday (it is a very comprehensive look at recent polling, early vote data). Be sure to see our recent look at what has been a huge surge of young people voting in the early vote; my latest indepth review of the 2020 election so far; and a new magazine essay on what we might see in the first term of a Biden-Harris Administration.
Tonight, Tomorrow– Count me as skeptical that the President will be successful in pulling off any kind of election treachery over the next few days. Many of his big schemes – various runs at Hunter Biden, his $300m HHS COVID media campaign, his $7b bribe of seniors, his unmasking and Durham efforts, his saber rattling at protestors, dozens of state legal challenges to voting laws, his ignoring of COVID – have gone up in flames. It doesn’t mean that he doesn’t try something in the next few days but at the very core of what he seems to planning – to invalidate millions of legally cast ballots – is so extreme that it is hard to see how he pulls it off.
This is particularly true after what has been a miraculous election so far. 100m people have voted already, in all states, in many places with new rules and COVID infection rates surging. There has been no fraud, no major irregularities, no games – with the exception of the President’s clearly illegal sabotaging of the USPS. As we’ve written before, the massive outpouring of civic virtue we’ve seen in all the efforts so many have taken to allow this historic early vote to take place in a time of a pandemic, and the inspiring voting itself, has taken a great deal of wind out of the President’s illiberal sails.
As for watching tonight, we have to start with the knowledge that MI, PA, WI won’t be known for a few days. What I am watching for, however, is what happens with AZ, GA, NC. These are all fast counting states, and if Biden wins all three, he can get to 270 EVs tonight/early tomorrow, even without MI, PA, WI and without FL, IA, OH.
The Incredible Biden Machine– I think one thing that is just not getting talked about enough is the incredible grassroots machine built by Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon and her team. This Time magazine piece does a deep dive on what they’ve done. It’s impressive, transformative. This past weekend the Biden campaign reached 58m voters. 60m people of both parties will be voting today. Just mindboggling off the chart amazing. Do read and be amazed.
-Simon, Georgia, and the rest of the NDN team
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