It’s Election Day, and we have a special edition of our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. 

Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING ON ELECTION DAY

Changes in Trump support
Judy Woodruff, @JudyWoodruff ([link removed])
Anchor and managing editor

I’ll be watching what happens to the 2016 Trump vote — both in terms of demographics and geography. Which voters does he hold on to? Which does he lose, or gain? And how accurate were the polls? All the pollsters are trying hard not to make the mistakes of the past. How close will their polling come to the final results in the presidential election?

The small places
Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

A bit like describing just one or two moments to watch from an epic Opera (or “Game of Thrones”), to me the 2020 election is a tale of big collisions happening in 3,141 small places, or counties. I’ll be watching some that swung wildly in 2016, like Marshall County, Iowa, which went from favoring President Barack Obama by 9 points in 2012 to Donald Trump by 8 points just four years later. Do they stay or reverse course?

I’ll also be watching places where a historic shift seems to be underway, like Cobb County, Georgia, a diverse, affluent county near Atlanta that is quickly becoming more diverse — the proportion of Black and Latino residents there has nearly doubled in 10 years. And I’m watching some usually overlooked places that could be pivotal, like Robeson County, North Carolina, which has high rates of poverty and health care problems as well as the largest Native American population east of the Mississippi. Trump also visited Lumberton, in Robeson County, over the weekend, something residents aren’t likely to forget any time soon. But will it keep the key county voting with him in a key battleground state?

Last thing I’m watching for — which everyone else will be watching, too — is when do we get results? Are concerns that counting will delay results by days or weeks overblown? Election officials I’ve spoken with sound as prepared as they can be. It all comes down to the amount of votes cast and the processes in each state.

Digging into demographics
Daniel Bush, @DanielBush ([link removed])
Senior politics reporter

As voters head to the polls on Election Day, I’ll be following some key demographic trends, including turnout among college-educated white women. Four years ago, President Donald Trump won the majority of college-educated white voters, despite losing among white women with college degrees by 7 points. Trump’s support with this voting bloc, especially in critical battleground states, helped him secure an upset victory. (White college-educated voters — both men and women — represented 37 percent of all voters in 2016, according to exit polls at the time).

But a lot has changed since then. Polls ahead of the 2020 election have shown Trump is deeply unpopular with female voters in general, and he has tended to fare worse among voters with college degrees as well. So how will these voters, and specifically white women, vote this time around? To track this group, I’ll be closely monitoring regions in key states that have a large population of white Americans with college degrees, such as the Raleigh-Durham area in North Carolina, the northern suburbs of Virginia, and parts of the Atlanta metropolitan area.

If Trump does better than expected with this voting group, he could score another surprise win. But if the polls heading into Election Day are accurate, it would be hard for Trump to win a second term with such dismal support from a key segment of the national electorate.


How we vote
Amna Nawaz, @IAmAmnaNawaz ([link removed])
Senior national correspondent and substitute anchor

I’m very interested in what kind of a difference record mail-in and early voting means for expanding the electorate. How much of the massive increase in early voters is from new voters, relative to 2016, and how much is simply cannibalizing the Election Day vote?

Experts say we’ve undergone 20 years of change in one cycle — so how much did all that serve to make voting easier and more accessible for people? What does that mean for America’s typically abysmal participation rates?


Preparing for confrontations
Yamiche Alcindor, @Yamiche ([link removed])
White House correspondent

On Election Day, I’ll be watching for legal and physical confrontations.

On the legal front, the Trump campaign and the Biden campaign have brought together teams of lawyers for potential legal challenges over what ballots get counted. This is a space to watch closely, especially in states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Trump already promised at a rally this weekend that “as soon as the election is over — we’re going in with our lawyers.” He has also repeatedly said, without evidence, that if he loses the election, it will be because it was “rigged.” The Republican National Committee has set aside some $20 million for what could be a prolonged legal fight, and the Trump campaign also recently began automatically checking a box to get additional
weekly contributions from online donors through mid-December in a sign that they might need donations weeks after the election.

Many people are on edge about potential violence as the election draws to a close, including officials at the White House where extra fencing went up Monday night in preparation for possible protests and unrest. Across the city, businesses boarded up storefronts, too. The FBI is also investigating an incident in which Trump supporters waving Trump 2020 flags allegedly harassed and tried to cut off and slow down a Joe Biden campaign bus last week in Texas. Trump voiced support for his supporters’ actions. "In my opinion, these patriots did nothing wrong,” he tweeted. Meanwhile, Biden said the behavior was unacceptable and took aim at Trump. “At least we've never had a president who thinks it's a good thing," he said this weekend.


The big power plays
Matt Loffman, @MattLoff ([link removed])
Politics Producer

While the presidential election has gotten the most attention this year, control of the U.S. Senate is also up for grabs. Democrats need to pick up three or four seats to regain the majority, and Republicans are playing defense in nearly every seat in play. The results in Senate races usually track very closely to the presidential results in a state. In every single state in 2016, the party that won the presidential race also won the Senate contest. Many polls in these contests this year track within a few points.

With so many close Senate races, my big question is: Who will be riding whose coattails? In some states, Trump is outperforming the Senate candidate in head-to-head polling matchups. Can candidates like Sens. Martha McSally in Arizona, Steve Daines in Montana and Lindsey Graham in South Carolina successfully tie themselves to Trump and make it over the finish line? In other states, Republican candidates are doing better in the polls than Trump. Can these candidates, including Ses. Susan Collins in Maine and Cory Gardner of Colorado, successfully separate themselves from the drama playing out at the top of the ticket? Will we see split-ticket voters this year, or are the fates of the presidential and Senate contests linked?


A mirage or a landslide
Emily Knapp, @emilyroseknapp ([link removed])
Senior politics editor

I’m curious to see how in-person voting goes on Election Day. Millions more Americans cast their ballots early and by mail this year not only to avoid crowds and long lines on Nov. 3, but to ensure their votes were counted. Concerns about voter intimidation at the polls, the U.S. Postal Service’s ability to deliver mail ballots on time, the purging of voter rolls and more have all contributed to a climate of fear that has been stoked by the president’s insistence, despite lack of evidence, that mail ballots and drop boxes can’t be trusted, and that whichever candidate is in the lead on election night should be declared the winner, regardless of outstanding votes yet to be counted.

Amid a pandemic, with so many factors forcing Americans to rethink how they vote, who is waiting until Election Day to cast their ballot? Polling shows they’re more likely to be Republicans and Trump voters, but there are also some states that don’t have early in-person voting, and where absentee voting remained limited — a number of those are typically red states, too. Many election watchers are saying that because Republicans are more likely to cast their ballots on Election Day, that early vote counts will favor Trump, as states are slower to count other ballots. But what if issues like hours-long waits, technical malfunctions and other concerns that prompted many Democrats to vote early end up discouraging, dissuading or otherwise blocking a significant number of Republican voters from casting ballots? Instead of a “red mirage ([link removed]) ” that puts Trump in the lead on election night and gives way to a
“blue shift ([link removed]) ” in favor of Biden once all the votes are counted, could Biden win in a landslide on election night because overall Democratic turnout increased while Republican turnout was somewhat muted?


Unusual scenes at the polls
William Brangham, @WmBrangham ([link removed])
Correspondent

Given the president’s repeated baseless claims about voter fraud, I'll be watching to see if Trump campaign volunteers show up in any significant numbers to monitor voting at polling sites tomorrow. The Trump campaign has put out the call to a self-described "Trump Army" to show up and look out for voting irregularities, but voting rights experts worry that volunteers untrained in the law could quickly end up illegally intimidating voters. I'll also be watching to see if any of the so-called "militia" or "patriot" groups across America try the same.


The Gen Z factor
Candice Norwood, @cjnorwoodwrites ([link removed])
digital politics reporter

I will be keeping an eye on young voter turnout, particularly among new Gen Z voters. Early turnout numbers among 18 to 29-year-old voters in key battleground states like North Carolina, Michigan and Florida have been significantly higher this year than among the same age group in 2016. Eligible Gen Z voters who are between the ages 18 and 23 are helping to drive that initial surge. Political scientists expect overall turnout to be high for Gen Z, as this group of new voters is considered more politically engaged than even their millennial predecessors.

Gen Z voters also have less loyalty to political party labels or platforms. In the weeks before Election Day, I spoke with progressive Gen Z voters who are very critical of Joe Biden and the Democratic establishment. I also interviewed conservative Gen Z voters who do not like President Donald Trump's policies or rhetoric. I also found that Gen Z voters across the political spectrum are more likely than older generations to view climate change as an important issue that needs to be addressed. Republican Gen Z voters are also much more likely to support social justice causes typically espoused by the left, such as addressing racial inequality and LGBTQ rights. It will be interesting to see how these views shape the results of the presidential and down-ballot races this year.

For insights, analysis and results, visit the PBS.org/NewsHour ([link removed]) and watch live special coverage ([link removed]) beginning at 6 p.m. ET and continuing all night, on air and online.

5 NEWSHOUR STORIES TO READ ON ELECTION DAY
By NewsHour Politics Team

‘Symbolism isn’t enough.’ Black Democrats in Milwaukee question whether Biden victory would bring real change ([link removed]) . Oct. 30. Turnout among Black voters dropped roughly 19 percent in Wisconsin from 2012 to 2016, likely contributing to Trump’s victory in the typically blue state. This year both candidates are making an effort to boost turnout in their favor, but as Daniel Bush reports, each has made missteps that have Black voters skeptical that the election will make a difference in their communities.

In Pennsylvania, mail-in ballots and legal battles could put our electoral system to the test. ([link removed]) Nov. 2. The expansion of mail-in voting has upended how election officials are preparing for Election Day, including in this critical battleground state that could be a tipping point for the presidency. In this podcast episode, William Brangham talks with Daniel Bush about what he’s heard from officials and voters across the state, and from Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Barton Gellman about the legal fights and other scenarios that could make for an unusual election night.

In final Arizona push, Trump and Biden court growing Latino business community. ([link removed]) Oct. 30. This typically red state has become a major battleground in 2020 as changing demographics shift Arizona toward the political center. Stephanie Sy talked to Latino small business owners, a key group targeted by both campaigns, about the issues that matter to them and how they are voting in the presidential election.

How Gen Z voters could shape the election. ([link removed]) Oct. 31. More diverse, more politically engaged and less bound by political party labels, new Gen Z voters are in a position to shape the presidential and down-ballot races this year -- but how? The NewsHour’s Candice Norwood talked to progressive voters who don’t plan to vote for Biden and conservative voters turned off by Trump who together paint a picture of a thoughtful generation that’s hard to predict.

How more Black candidates could win in white districts this year. ([link removed]) Oct. 29. Twelve Black candidates running in majority white suburbs around the country are running either neck-and-neck with their competitors or have a slight polling advantage, continuing a trend that in 2018 saw eight Black candidates elected to Congress from majority white districts. As Lisa Desjardins and Candice Norwood report, the trend is in part due to changing demographics, but also changing opinions. Months of protest this year have brought about greater awareness of racial injustices in the U.S., one factor in what could be greater representation for Black Americans in the country’s institutions of power.

#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Kate Grumke, @KGrumke ([link removed])
Politics producer

On this Election Day, we’re paying close attention to the already record-setting voter turnout. In 2016, about 58.3 million votes were cast before Election Day. As of Monday night, this election has already seen more than 99 million votes ([link removed]) cast. Since the voting age was lowered to 18, the highest turnout the U.S. has seen in a presidential election was 61.6 percent of eligible voters.

Our question: In what year was that record-high turnout?

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: On what date did Al Gore finally, definitively concede the election to George W. Bush?

The answer: Dec.13, 2000.

On Dec. 12, the Supreme Court settled the 2000 election by ending a recount in Florida. The next day, five weeks after Election Day, Gore conceded to Bush a second and final time.

Congratulations to our winners: George Livanos and Susan Kupsky!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your Inbox next week.

[link removed]


** How the AP calls races and what to expect on election night
------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================
Copyright © 2020 NEWSHOUR LLC, All rights reserved.

Our mailing address is:
3620 South 27th Street
Arlington, VA 22206

** unsubscribe from this list ([link removed])
** update subscription preferences ([link removed])