[In this joint report, ACLED and MilitiaWatch map militia activity
across the United States and assess the risk of violence going into
the 2020 election.] [[link removed]]

STANDING BY: RIGHT-WING MILITIA GROUPS AND THE US ELECTION  
[[link removed]]


 

Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project
October 23, 2020
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project
[[link removed]]

*
[[link removed]]
*
[[link removed]]
*
* [[link removed]]

_ In this joint report, ACLED and MilitiaWatch map militia activity
across the United States and assess the risk of violence going into
the 2020 election. _

Standing By: Right-Wing Militia Groups and the US Election,

 

_In this joint report, ACLED and MilitiaWatch map militia activity
across the United States and assess the risk of violence going into
the 2020 election. Access data directly through the US Crisis Monitor
[[link removed]] and check
the US methodology brief
[[link removed]] for
more information about coding decisions, definitions, and sourcing._

Download a PDF
[[link removed]]

_EXECUTIVE SUMMARY_

Militia groups and other armed non-state actors pose a serious threat
to the safety and security of American voters. Throughout the summer
and leading up to the general election, these groups have become more
assertive, with activities ranging from intervening in protests to
organizing kidnapping plots targeting elected officials (CNN, 13
October 2020
[[link removed]]).
Both the Department of Homeland Security and the Federal Bureau of
Investigation have specifically identified extreme far right-wing and
racist movements as a primary risk factor heading into November,
describing the election as a potential “flashpoint” for
reactionary violence  (The Nation, 30 September 2020
[[link removed]]; New
York Times, 6 October 2020
[[link removed]]).

ACLED [[link removed]] collects and analyzes information
about the actions of state, non-state, and sole perpetrator1
[[link removed]] violence and demonstration
activity. MilitiaWatch [[link removed]] tracks,
documents, and analyzes contemporary US militia movements, and
provides reports connecting long-term militia trends to broader
political events. ACLED and MilitiaWatch data indicate that right-wing
militias have steadily ramped up their activities, and taken on an
increasingly outsized profile within the national political
environment. 

THIS JOINT REPORT REVIEWS THE LATEST DATA ON RIGHT-WING MILITIA
ORGANIZATIONS ACROSS THE COUNTRY, IDENTIFYING THE MOST ACTIVE GROUPS
AND MAPPING THE LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE HEIGHTENED MILITIA
ACTIVITY BEFORE, DURING, AND AFTER THE ELECTION.

Although many US militias can be described as ‘latent’ in that
they threaten more violence than they commit, several recently
organized militias are associated with a right-wing ideology of
extreme violence towards communities opposed to their rhetoric and
demands for dominance and control. The lack of open sanctions of these
groups from public figures and select local law enforcement has given
them space to operate, while concurrently allowing political figures
to claim little direct responsibility for violent actions from which
they hope to benefit. 

ACLED has tracked the activities of over 80 militias across the US in
recent months, the vast majority of which are right-wing armed groups.
This report maps a subset of the most active right-wing militias,
including ‘mainstream militias,’ which are those that work to
align with US law enforcement (the Three Percenters, the Oath Keepers,
the Light Foot Militia, the Civilian Defense Force, and the American
Contingency); street movements that are highly active in brawls (the
Proud Boys, and Patriot Prayer); and highly devolved libertarian
groups, which have a history of conflict and are skeptical of state
forces (the Boogaloo Bois, and People’s Rights [Bundy Ranch]).  

Analysis of a variety of drivers and barriers to militia activity
allows for identification of high-risk locations ahead of the
election. These include locations that have seen SUBSTANTIAL
ENGAGEMENT IN ANTI-CORONAVIRUS LOCKDOWN PROTESTS as well as places
where militias might have PERCEPTIONS OF ‘LEFTIST COUP’
ACTIVITIES. Spaces where militias have been active in setting
up RECRUITMENT DRIVES OR HOLDING TRAINING FOR MEMBERS are also at
heightened risk, as are spaces where militia members
cultivate PERSONAL RELATIONSHIPS WITH POLICE OR LAW ENFORCEMENT or
where there might be a FRIENDLY ATTITUDE BY LAW ENFORCEMENT TOWARDS
MILITIA PRESENCE OR ACTIVITY. In the context of the upcoming
election, SWING STATES are also at heightened risk, in line with
scholarship around election violence and unrest being more common in
competitive spaces. And lastly, STATE CAPITALS AND ‘PERIPHERY’
TOWNS also remain important potential inflection points for violence,
especially in more rural and suburban areas that have been
particularly conducive to the foundation and regular activities of
militia groups. Medium-population cities and suburban areas with
centralized zones also serve as locations of major gravitational pull.
Barriers to militia activity, meanwhile, can include locations with an
overwhelming left-leaning population and/or large populations
unsupportive of militias. 

Based on these drivers and barriers, this report finds that capitals
and peripheral towns, as well as  medium-population cities and
suburban areas with centralized zones, in GEORGIA, MICHIGAN,
PENNSYLVANIA, WISCONSIN, and OREGON are at highest risk of
increased militia activity in the election and post-election period,
while NORTH CAROLINA, TEXAS, VIRGINIA, CALIFORNIA, and NEW
MEXICO are at moderate risk. Spotlights on each of these states offer
a glimpse into recent trends associated with militia activity in each
context in recent months. 

_KEY CONCLUSIONS_

There has been a major realignment of militia movements in the US from
anti-federal government writ large to mostly supporting one candidate,
thereby generally positioning the militia movement alongside a
political party. This has resulted in the further entrenchment of a
connection between these groups’ identities and politics under the
Trump administration, with the intention of preserving and promoting a
limited and warped understanding of US history and culture.

These armed groups engage in hybrid tactics. They train for urban and
rural combat while also mixing public relations, propaganda works, and
‘security operations’ via both online and physical social
platforms to engage those outside of the militia sphere. There is an
increasing narrative and trend that groups are organizing to
‘supplement’ the work of law enforcement or to place themselves in
a narrowly defined ‘public protection’ role in parallel with
police departments of a given locale.

Ahead of the election, right-wing militia activity has been dominated
by reactions to recent social justice activism like the Black Lives
Matter movement, public health restrictions due to the ongoing
coronavirus pandemic, and other perceived threats to the ‘liberty’
and ‘freedoms’ of these groups.

And right-wing militia groups are often highly competitive with one
another, but many have coalesced around this period of heightened
political tension, and have even brought Proud Boys and QAnon-linked
groups into the fold. While some groups have indicated that they are
receptive to calls for deescalation and conflict avoidance, they
remain vulnerable to hardline elements that may work clandestinely
towards violent action aimed at dominating public space around the
election.

INTRODUCTION & KEY TRENDS

ACLED and MilitiaWatch have identified a major realignment of militia
movements in the US from anti-federal government writ large to mostly
supporting one candidate, thereby generally positioning the militia
movement with a political party. This has resulted in the further
entrenchment of a connection between these groups’ identities and
politics under the Trump administration, with the intention of
preserving and promoting a limited and warped understanding of US
history and culture. 

We find that these armed groups engage in hybrid tactics. They train
for urban and rural combat while also mixing public relations,
propaganda works, and ‘security operations’ via both online and
physical social platforms to engage those outside of the militia
sphere. There is an increasing narrative and trend that groups are
organizing to ‘supplement’ the work of law enforcement or to place
themselves in a narrowly defined ‘public protection’ role in
parallel with police departments of a given locale.

Ahead of the election, right-wing militia activity has been dominated
by reactions to recent social justice activism like the Black Lives
Matter (BLM) movement, public health restrictions due to the ongoing
coronavirus pandemic, and other perceived threats to the ‘liberty’
and ‘freedoms’ of these groups.

Right-wing militia groups are often highly competitive with one
another, but many have coalesced around this period of heightened
political tension, and have even brought Proud Boys (more information
below) and QAnon-linked2
[[link removed]] groups into the fold. While some
groups have indicated that they are receptive to calls for
deescalation and conflict avoidance, they remain vulnerable to
hardline elements that may work clandestinely towards violent action
aimed at dominating public space (see, for example, Soufan Center, 19
October 2020
[[link removed]]). 

The first section of this report introduces nine of the most active
militias in the US  and reviews their origins, goals, and core
activities. While ACLED, through our partnership with MilitiaWatch,
has tracked the activity of over 80 militias across the US in recent
months, only a select number of these groups are highlighted below,
for brevity; footnotes throughout the report offer more insight into
some of the other active militias in the US. This report concentrates
predominantly on right-wing militias, as this grouping has seen the
most significant increase in their profile and activities in recent
months.3 [[link removed]] Their actions, planned
and executed, extend to the US election and beyond, and many of these
groups have formed in reaction to other ongoing crises including
pandemic shutdown orders and social justice movements. While some
groups are localized, many engage in widespread activities throughout
the US (see map above) and transcend state borders.

NON-RIGHT-WING GROUPS

Amid rising political tensions ahead of the election, groups have
organized across the ideological spectrum. The vast majority of
militias identified over the summer are right-wing, and their activity
is widespread and growing. Left-wing militia activity is not as
pronounced, and while the specter of ‘Antifa’ looms large in the
public imagination, violent activities associated with this
non-centralized movement have been minimal, and are often expressed in
cyber actions (like doxxing), and with minimal rioting that typically
does not involve threats or harm to individuals. 

_‘ANTIFA’_

The loosely organized anti-fascist movement known as
‘Antifa’ engages in two primary activities relevant to the
behavior under review in this report. Local and interstate networks of
antifascists organize counter-mobilization against right-wing street
organizing, including against many of the groups analyzed below. The
majority of ‘Antifa’ energy is spent towards counterintelligence
operations, primarily doxxing right-wing activists and organizing
publicly and semi-publicly available information. Antifa-affiliated
activists are also rarely armed and do not exhibit a pattern of
recruitment, training, and integration into a chain-of-command, like
most militia and armed groups.  

_NOT FUCKING AROUND COALITION_

The Not Fucking Around Coalition (NFAC) is a burgeoning Black
separatist movement that, in many ways, is a direct reaction to many
of the groups analyzed below. The NFAC is an all-Black, armed activist
movement started and led by an Atlanta DJ known as Grandmaster Jay.
They have appeared in opposition to mostly-white right-wing militia
movements and continue to call for retribution for Breonna Taylor’s
death at the hands of the Louisville police. While they clearly draw
from and instrumentalize left-wing militant aesthetics (such as the
Black Panther Party of the 1970s), they do not have an explicitly
leftist political program. In the past months, the leader of the NFAC
has begun to call for the establishment of a separatist Black
ethnostate in Texas, and has attempted to align his movement with
other Black armed movements like the New Black Panther Party (not
affiliated with the original Panthers and widely disavowed by the
same). 

The NFAC have been active across at least three states and Washington,
DC since the start of the summer, including in their ‘home’ state
of Georgia; Kentucky, where they have shown up in Louisville in
support of Breonna Taylor; and Louisiana. The group has shown up
exclusively in the context of protests. For example, in late July,
about 2,500 armed and 300 unarmed NFAC members held a rally in
Louisville, Kentucky in support of the BLM movement, demanding justice
for Breonna Taylor. The group was met by III%ers counter-protesting,
resulting in verbal sparring between the two groups, though police in
heavy riot gear kept both sides apart. 

In the final section of the report, we explore a number of drivers of
militia activity in order to identify areas at  heightened risk of
militia activity in the lead up to the vote, the election period
itself, and its aftermath.

MILITIAS IN THE ACLED DATASET

ACLED collects information on militias around the world and
categorizes these groups as non-state armed movements with members
affiliated by ideology, identity, or community. Globally, militias are
responsible for more political violence than any other group,
including governments, rebels, and insurgents. In many countries,
militias operate at the behest of political figures to influence
competition and competitors through attacks on candidates, supporters,
‘rival’ communities, and infrastructure. However, their actions
transcend elections and episodes of political competition, and these
groups frequently operate as a parallel violent fixture for political
elites, parties, and interests. In some cases, these groups are kept
‘on retainer’ for political figures in and out of government for
whom they commit acts of violence. In exchange for violence, these
groups receive the patronage of political elites and impunity.
Increasingly, militias who operate as the violent arm of a political
movement engage in lucrative, criminal activity to supplement their
incomes and ‘use their skills.’ They often have no clear political
agenda and organize to promote a particular politicized identity or an
ideology centered on an identity, and their short-term objective is to
create violence and disorder across ‘rival’ communities.  

These lessons on militias across the world are instructive in the US
context. Although many US militias can be described as ‘latent’ in
that they threaten more violence than they commit, several recently
organized militias are associated with a right-wing ideology of
extreme violence towards communities opposed to their rhetoric and
demands for dominance and control. The lack of open sanctions of these
groups from public figures and select local law enforcement has
allowed them space to operate, while concurrently allowing political
figures to claim little direct responsibility for violent actions from
which they hope to benefit. 

In order to make a potential grouping of these armed organizations
more cohesive and their distinctions more meaningful in terms of
likely future actions, groups here are divided by their overall
political posturing (initially presented in the table below). We
include (1) ‘mainstream militias,’ or groups most likely to work
with and alongside US law enforcement; (2) right-wing street
movements, those that are highly active in fighting in physical space;
and (3) highly devolved right-wing libertarian groups, those skeptical
of state forces, with a history of conflict. Individual membership in
these groups is not inflexible, and individuals regularly join, leave,
and cross the organizations represented below, as well as other
militias outside of the ones presented below. However, these groups
provide an organizing framework that many potentially violent actors
may use in the coming weeks.

LARGE, CROSS-STATE, RIGHT-WING MILITIA MOVEMENTS4
[[link removed]]

Name
Type
Est. Size
Active Spaces
History of Violence
Violence Potential

Three Percenters
Mainstream militia
Large
Nationwide, organized at assorted intervals (depending upon group)
High
High

Oath Keepers
Mainstream militia
Moderate
Nationwide, mostly gathering on event basis
Moderate
Moderate

Light Foot Militia
Mainstream militia
Large
Nationwide, divided by region of state
Low
Moderate

Civilian Defense Force
Mainstream militia
Small
Nationwide, mostly online
Low
Low

American Contingency
Mainstream militia
Moderate
Nationwide, mostly online, divided by region
Low
Low

Proud Boys
Right-wing street movement
Large
Nationwide, especially near cities
Very High
Very High

Patriot Prayer
Right-wing street movement
Moderate
Pacific Northwest and West Coast
High
High

Boogaloo Bois
Devolved right-wing libertarian modality
Moderate
Nationwide, highly devolved
Very High
Very High

People’s Rights
Devolved right-wing libertarian modality
Large
Nationally dispersed, broken down into sub-state regions
Low
Moderate

‘MAINSTREAM MILITIA’: GROUPS MOST LIKELY TO ALIGN WITH US LAW
ENFORCEMENT

The ‘mainstream militia’ classification applies to a broad range
of armed right-wing groups that are well-documented in the last decade
and beyond. They operate with some level of structure, schedule, and
strategy and engage in a number of different types of activities.
Primary activities during the period covered by this report include
providing and supplementing ‘public security’ efforts in
modalities that are almost exclusively through counter-demonstrations.
While these groups often define their operations in terms of defense
of the public and protecting businesses, they are almost always
aligned towards a particular political view. From this standpoint,
through which they often see police and the US military as allies,
their implicit goals overlap with preserving the long-term dominant
culture of the US, largely perceived as traditionally pro-white and
patriarchal systems of production and governance. Many of these groups
claim to be always ready and always watching, yet exhibit a pattern of
activation in reaction to calls for justice or equity for non-white
Americans.

There are new undercurrents impacting this group of actors, such as
the ‘new militia’ organizing capacity that two actors here
represent (American Contingency and Civil Defense Force, detailed
below). These new trends include a focus on sharing ‘intel’ on
potential and active protests, an emphasis on communication across
great distances via social media sites, and a generally more cautious
approach towards mobilizing without a clear reason. 

This section reviews the following ‘mainstream militia’ groups:
the Three Percenters, the Oath Keepers, the Light Foot Militia, the
Civilian Defense Force, and the American Contingency. The map below
denotes states in which the activities of these groups have been
detected in recent months. 

THREE PERCENTERS

The Three Percenters (III%ers) movement is a broad set of splinter
movements based upon a shared foundational and historically
discredited myth that only three percent of the residents of the
Thirteen Colonies took up arms against the British. They were
organized in 2008 after former President Barack Obama’s ascendance
to the presidency and declared they were established to fight against
“tyranny.” In 2008, conservative fears of the first Black
president of the US, potential new gun regulation, chances at higher
taxes, and the economic downturn of the Great Recession created an
environment rife for right-wing militia development. This moment was
seized upon by Michael Brian Vanderboegh, who led the Sons of Liberty
militia in the 1990s and co-founded the armed Three Percent movement
in 2008 amidst a rising current of Tea Party nationalism. Vanderboegh
died in 2016, well after the III% movement had grown far beyond his
command (Southern Poverty Law Center, 10 August 2016
[[link removed]]). 

In the years since Trump’s election in 2016, the III% movement has
maintained their opposition to gun regulation as ‘government
tyranny,’ but also often operate in defense of the state. Most
members are actively pro-Trump. During this time, the III% movement
has been marked extensively by internal upheaval, splinters, and drama
between both leaders and rank-and-file members (MilitiaWatch, 11
September 2020 [[link removed]]).
The III% label now refers to a combination of disparate and
disassociated militia chapters, including the Security Force III%, the
III% Defence Militia, the III% United Patriots, the American Patriots
III%, the III% Originals, the Real III%, and more. In many ways, the
label ‘III%’ represents less a cohesive, singular militia movement
and more a branding and political pole around which individual
chapters and movements are oriented (MilitiaWatch, 15 June 2019
[[link removed]]).

The III%ers and their various splinters have been active in at least
19 states since the start of summer 2020. They are especially present
in Georgia, where over a quarter of all activity involving these
groups is reported. In some cases they have been present at protests
without engaging. In other cases they have directly intervened in
demonstrations, both with and without the use of violence. In several
recent events they have operated to counter social justice
demonstrations: in August, for example, heavily armed militia,
including the Arkansas American Patriots III%, showed up at a march
against racism and in support of the BLM movement, organized by Ozarks
Hate Watch and Bridge the Gap NWA in Zinc, northern Arkansas. The
militia was present to block the protesters’ access to a Ku Klux
Klan (KKK) compound, on request of the KKK to ‘provide security.’
According to the protesters, “one militia member kept pointing her
rifle at the crowd with her finger on the trigger,” though no
physical confrontation was reported (Insider, 4 August 2020
[[link removed]]).
In addition to involvement in demonstrations, a number of training
exercises have been reported across Georgia, Maryland, and Illinois.

OATH KEEPERS

The Oath Keepers are a militia movement organized to maintain the
“oath” sworn by police officers and members of the military to
protect the US from enemies “foreign and domestic.” Like the
III%ers, detailed above, the Oath Keepers were founded out of the same
political, social, and economic context of conservative reaction
against the election of former President Obama. The group concentrates
on recruiting active and retired officers from both the police forces
and the armed forces of the United States (Anti-Defamation League, 18
September 2015
[[link removed]]). The
group’s founder and leader, Stewart Rhodes, is a US Army veteran and
Yale Law School graduate. 

The Oath Keepers have a history of conspiratorial and highly
aggressive reaction to currents in US politics. For example, in 2013
they formed a new corps of militia gatherings referred to as
“Citizen Preservation” groups to counter encroachment by the
“New World Order” (Daily Beast, 15 October 2013
[[link removed]]).
After Trump’s victory at the polls in 2016, the Oath Keepers have
struggled to find their ideological footing, and were in direct
conflict with members of the Alt-Right during part of 2017’s surge
in Alt-Right street activism (Southern Poverty Law Center, 15 June
2017
[[link removed]]).
However, in the immediate contemporary, the Oath Keepers have once
again taken a more hardline right-wing stance. Stewart Rhodes was
removed from Twitter after actively calling for violence after Aaron
‘Jay’ Danielson of Patriot Prayer was shot and killed in Portland
(more on this incident below) (Yahoo! News, 10 September 2020
[[link removed]]).

The Oath Keepers have been active in Kentucky and Texas since the
start of the summer. The majority of their activity has been in
support of law enforcement in the form of presence at, yet not direct
engagement in, protests. For example, for three nights in a row in
late September, the Oath Keepers were present in Louisville, Kentucky
in which they ‘guarded’ storefronts, businesses, and gas stations
from demonstrators associated with the BLM movement who had gathered
to support justice for Breonna Taylor. Taylor, a 26-year old Black
woman and paramedic, was killed by police last March during a botched
raid on her apartment (New York Times, 1 September 2020
[[link removed]]). 

In Texas, the Oath Keepers have been more directly engaged in
demonstrations. In late July, in Weatherford, outside of Fort Worth,
members of the Oath Keepers were present in support of pro-statue
demonstrators, who had shown up to counter groups calling for the
removal of a Confederate monument located at the county courthouse
grounds. The next day, in Tyler, an hour and a half east of Dallas,
Oath Keepers armed with semi-automatic rifles were present in support
of a ‘Back the Blue’ rally. The rally was counter to a concurrent
rally showing solidarity for protesters in Portland who had been in a
standoff with federal agents for over a week and to register new
Democratic voters. As such, Democratic congressional candidate Hank
Gilbert was also present and slotted to speak. A heavily armed Rusk
town councilman, Martin Holsome, who is ‘aligned’ with the Oath
Keepers and other militias, was present as well alongside the Back the
Blue rally. The demonstration turned violent when
counter-demonstrators aligned with the Back the Blue rally instigated
a physical altercation as Gilbert started his speech, while others of
the group created a ‘military-style defensive formation’
(Washington Post, 27 August 2020
[[link removed]]).
Three people were reportedly injured, though no arrests were reported.
One of those injured was a top aide for Gilbert; Gilbert noted that he
had asked law enforcement to become involved and to allow for their
scheduled demonstration, but to no avail (Washington Post, 27 August
2020
[[link removed]]).
More recently, the Oath Keepers have held recruitment events in Texas,
including in Houston.

LIGHT FOOT MILITIA

The Light Foot Militia (LFM) is a national militia gathering
oriented around a purported ‘Constitutionalist’ and
‘apolitical’ approach. Unlike the III% movement, the LFM has
remained mostly cohesive as a national movement and has maintained a
devolved organizational structure by placing emphasis on local and
regional chapters rather than a national gathering. They place less
emphasis on a national leadership structure, yet maintain a
national-level identity aesthetically and in their operations. Each of
the 86 identified chapters of LFM has its own particular political and
social character, with some of the chapters taking a more anti-left or
anti-BLM stance than others, but the LFM claims to remain focused on
security and observation operations rather than gathering to
demonstrate themselves. 

The LFM was one of the major militia players at the ‘Unite the
Right’ rally in Charlottesville, Virginia in 2017, but several
prominent leaders of the militia have referred to their involvement as
a mistake (The Guardian, 15 August 2017
[[link removed]]).
Prior to their presence on the ground for this event, they claim to
have coordinated with local police, which was not always the case for
other groups that travelled to Charlottesville. Some of the larger
chapters of the LFM, like the Pennsylvania Light Foot Militia
(MilitiaWatch, 24 March 2017
[[link removed]]),
have seen staffing changes since Charlottesville and the previous _de
facto_ leader of the group has since disassociated with the movement.

The LFM has been active since late May in at least six states across
the country, including in Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Idaho, Nevada,
Kansas, and Washington. The majority of their activity has involved
the group being present at, yet not directly engaging in, protests.
For example, in July, the LFM was present at a protest associated with
the BLM movement in Pennsylvania to ‘patrol’ and to ‘prevent
violence’ between counter-demonstrators. That same month, the group
was present in Charleston, South Carolina to ‘protect’ a
Confederate monument during a counter-demonstration. In addition to
presence at protests, the group — especially the Kootenai County
division in northern Idaho — has also engaged in public meetings for
field exercises or shooting practice at gun ranges. 

CIVILIAN DEFENSE FORCE _AND_ AMERICAN CONTINGENCY

The Civilian Defense Force (CDF) and American Contingency (AmCon)
groups are recently formed armed right-wing activist brands or
formation patterns that combine a central national command with
highly-devolved local, state, and regional commands. These are grouped
together because they both represent the same current within the armed
right of the US, and in many cases draw from the same pool of recruits
(likely with much overlap between members). Both groups were formed
with the explicit agenda to counter protests across the US this past
summer, and they decry a failure of the ‘traditional’ US. 

Both the CDF and AmCon rely heavily on shared branding and fairly
broad ideological framing of active conservative involvement in
response to anti-police and pro-BLM protests. The CDF maintains a much
smaller presence and relies primarily on gathering intelligence on
protest events happening around the country. AmCon has a larger reach
and is often used for sharing of ‘intelligence’ on left-wing and
BLM protests planned in particular regions, but also has a
complementary weapons and tactics training program built into a
partner company run by the same team.

Both the CDF and AmCon have been active in Pennsylvania since the
beginning of the summer. The CDF has additionally been active in
Wisconsin, while AmCon has also been active in Arizona, California,
Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Montana, and Texas. AmCon has been
holding a number of training events in recent months — including
pistol training and training around carbine use, nearly all of which
have been to a sold-out audience — and recruitment events, such as
‘meet-and-greets.’ The CDF has held similar training and
recruitment events.

RIGHT-WING STREET MOVEMENTS: HIGHLY ACTIVE IN BRAWLS

Right-wing street movements represent the bulk of recorded direct,
personal violence from both this summer and previous years. These
movements are highly masculine, often staffed by a younger core
membership, and participate in spectacular violence while running
savvy public relations campaigns to a press corps that often does not
understand their real goals. Many members of these movements revel at
the idea of brawling in the street and have expressly indicated that
they enjoy fighting with groups like Antifa, for whom many of these
organizations were formed to provoke. In order to remain publicly
acceptable, these groups will often describe themselves either in many
layers of irony or as something they are not, such as a solely
Christian or conservative movement.

Leading groups in this category include the Proud Boys and Patriot
Prayer. The map below denotes states in which the activities of these
groups have been detected in recent months.

 

PROUD BOYS

The Proud Boys are a fascist youth movement oriented towards
street-fighting. Their ideology is to ‘defend western chauvinism.’
The group is right-wing and anti-left in nature and has had several
members convicted for violence. They were created by VICE News founder
Gavin McInnes who has since backed away from the group (The Guardian,
22 November 2018
[[link removed]]).
The Proud Boys rely heavily on jokes and silliness to downplay the
group’s proclivity for violence, both threatened and real. The
current _de facto_ leader of the Proud Boys, Enrique Tarrio, is also
the Florida director of ‘Latinos for Trump’ (CNN, 1 October 2020
[[link removed]]). 

The Proud Boys are evolving into a more militant organization. Groups
of young men increasingly show up to Proud Boys events with rifles and
plate carriers. Their members have actively attacked journalists that
they deem “Antifa media” at their events and have also begun to
join militias such as the III%ers over the past two years (Detroit
News, 17 September 2020
[[link removed]]).
After President Trump’s “stand back, stand by” comments, Proud
Boys chapters drafted up images with the phrase superimposed over
their usual logo for sale on t-shirts and other merchandise (Mediaite,
30 September 2020
[[link removed]]).

The Proud Boys have been active in events across at least 11 states,
including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Oregon, since the
start of the summer. They have been present, yet not engaged, in
protests, though have also intervened in demonstrations, both with and
without the use of violence.  In late September, for example,
approximately 1,000 Proud Boys and Trump supporters gathered in Delta
Park in Portland, Oregon to hold an “End Antifa” rally in support
of President Trump’s re-election campaign, and to call for an end to
‘domestic terrorism.’ One of the Proud Boys attacked a blogger,
pushing them to the floor and kicking them in the face, while three
other demonstrators were issued criminal citations for possession of
loaded firearms in public. 

PATRIOT PRAYER

Patriot Prayer is a right-wing Christian street movement organized to
actively confront leftist street movements on the American West Coast.
Joey Gibson, the founder of Patriot Prayer, was indicted on charges of
inciting a street riot at an anarchist hangout in Portland on May Day
in 2019 (OPB, 22 August 2019
[[link removed]]).
While Gibson describes himself as a “moderate” and his group as a
“conservative Christian organization,” Patriot Prayer’s actions
— as well as the alliances it has made with other right-wing
organizations — indicate the group acts to the far right of these
claims (Vox, 8 September 2020
[[link removed]]). 

Patriot Prayer has been active exclusively in the Pacific Northwest
since the start of the summer, with activity centered in Oregon and
Washington. The group has engaged in demonstrations, both peaceful and
violent. Perhaps their highest profile engagement took place in late
August in Portland, Oregon, when hundreds of vehicles formed a caravan
demonstration in support of President Trump, alongside the Proud Boys
and the III%ers. During that rally, the combined militia groups used
pepper spray and shot paintball guns at counter-demonstrators rallying
in support of the BLM movement and against police brutality, as well
as at journalists. They also intentionally drove their trucks through
crowds of counter-demonstrators who had tried to block the streets
(NBC, 30 August 2020
[[link removed]]).
Amidst the clashes, a member of Patriot Prayer, Aaron ‘Jay’
Danielson, was shot and killed by an unknown opposing activist.
Authorities later identified a suspect, Michael Reinoehl, who was
killed by a federal task force in September (USA Today, 4 September
2020
[[link removed]]).
Law enforcement initially claimed that Reinoehl was armed, but
subsequent evidence has emerged suggesting that he “wasn’t
obviously armed” and that the authorities shot him without warning
(Washington Post, 10 September 2020
[[link removed]]; New
York Times, 13 October 2020
[[link removed]]). Since
then, President Trump has appeared to celebrate the alleged
extrajudicial killing (CNN, 15 October 2020
[[link removed]]).

While Patriot Prayer has remained fairly quiet in recent weeks
following the Portland shooting, its members are likely still
energized from the summer of activity in the Pacific Northwest.
Gibson, the founder and leader of the group, has recently become
involved with Ammon Bundy’s newest project, the People’s Rights
organization (introduced below) (IREHR, 13 October 2020
[[link removed]]).

DEVOLVED RIGHT-WING LIBERTARIAN GROUPS: HIGHLY-DEVOLVED GROUPS,
SKEPTICAL OF STATE FORCES, WITH A HISTORY OF CONFLICT

Devolved right-wing libertarian groups are often among the most
difficult to track despite holding perhaps the most aggressive end
goals. These groups are highly primed for a civil conflict they
believe is likely to break out in the future, though many have
extremely different views on the subject. These groups mostly operate
in terms of hyper-local cells and short-range networks, but should
also be considered highly responsive to news and current events. This
means that these groups may react at a moment’s notice, well before
the specifics of a news story or political event are made fully clear.

This category includes groups like the Boogaloo Bois and People’s
Rights. The map below denotes states in which the activities of these
groups have been detected in recent months.

 

BOOGALOO BOIS

The Boogaloo Bois are the adherents to a diverse set of neo-dadaist
armed aesthetics and modalities aimed at setting off or preparing for
the second American Civil War. They regard the likelihood of another
war as inevitable. Some Boogaloo Bois are explicitly right-wing while
others have attempted to infiltrate and use BLM protests as a way to
accelerate the political situation towards mass violence. The Boogaloo
meme originates from right-wing weapons boards on 4chan’s /k/ but
has seen much larger appeal among absurdist libertarian armed
activists since. The Boogaloo is not a cohesive group nor is there a
meaningful central ending ideology beyond commitment to a methodology
of political change: that of civil war (or the “Boogaloo”). People
who identify as “Boogaloo Bois” are almost always right-wing,
though often they are situated in contention with the right-wing
supporters of the police and Donald Trump (Southern Poverty Law
Center, 5 June 2020
[[link removed]]).  

Some Boogaloo Bois have also positioned themselves as pro-BLM or in
support of anti-fascist protest movements. However, some of these same
individuals have also been documented expressing far-right racist
views, for example, expressing support for white nationalist
dream-state Rhodesia or in sharing neo-Nazi irony memes online
(Bellingcat, 27 May 2020
[[link removed]]).
It is also the case that some police departments, such as that of
Newport News, Virginia, have sought to get along with and make
concessions to local Boogaloo cells. 

The Boogaloo Bois have been active across at least 11 states since the
start of the summer. Given their non-cohesive nature, their activities
span different regions of the country. In addition to demonstrations,
the Boogaloo Bois have also engaged in armed clashes with law
enforcement, in line with their stated agenda of police opposition. In
late May, for example, two alleged members of the Boogaloo Bois fired
from a vehicle on federal officers working security at a protest
associated with the BLM movement in Oakland, California, killing one
and injuring a second. The following week, an armed clash ensued
between police and a Boogaloo Bois member in Santa Cruz, California,
where a police officer was shot dead. During that same time period, at
least three members of the Boogaloo Bois were arrested in Las Vegas,
Nevada when they arrived at a demonstration associated with the BLM
movement armed with weapons and Molotov cocktails, with alleged
intentions to escalate the situation by attacking people. Their
involvement in demonstrations was further thrust into the limelight
around the events that unfolded in Kenosha, Wisconsin in late August.
On the night of 25 August, about 1,000 demonstrators gathered outside
the courthouse in support of the BLM movement and to protest the
shooting of Jacob Blake by police days earlier. A teenager, Kyle
Rittenhouse, had responded to a ‘call-to-action’ by the Kenosha
Guard5 [[link removed]] on Facebook and joined a
security detail including the Kenosha Guard and local Boogaloo Bois
(though he reportedly was not a member of either group) when he shot
and killed two demonstrators and injured another (New York Times, 16
October 2020
[[link removed]]). 

PEOPLE’S RIGHTS (BUNDY RANCH)

Ammon Bundy and the residents of the Bundy Ranch (past and present)
have recently reorganized a highly devolved “Uber for militias”
called the People’s Rights organization. While Ammon Bundy has
previously ‘disavowed’ the US militia movement, he has reorganized
a similar armed rapid-response network based upon right-wing
libertarian principles. He has helped to establish People’s Rights
organizations across 16 states that are divided up by regions
(Missoula Current, 28 August 2020
[[link removed]]).
Given that much of their current work is in preparation for activation
rather than to protest in the street, they have only appeared in ACLED
data in three states this summer. However, these groups, detailed in a
report by the Institute for Research and Education on Human Rights
(IREHR), represent a highly devolved and local organized militant
group that could be activated at Bundy’s call fairly quickly (IREHR,
13 October 2020
[[link removed]]).

The activities of the Bundy Ranch (and hence expected activity of the
People’s Rights) have been centered predominantly in the northwest,
specifically in Idaho, Montana, and Utah. In August, protesters led by
Ammon Bundy held demonstrations for multiple days in a row in Boise,
Idaho to demand an end to coronavirus mask mandates, the lifting of
the current state of emergency, and to oppose a proposal that would
limit the civil liability for businesses, schools, and governments.
The special legislative session in the statehouse was interrupted when
a glass door was shattered and armed protesters rushed into the
gallery. On the second day of the special legislative session, when
the protesters showed up again, Ammon Bundy, amongst others, was
arrested. Bundy was also arrested the following day when he and his
followers showed up yet again to the special legislative session.
Earlier that month, Bundy, alongside Shawna Cox, another libertarian
activist, led a protest against the mandatory use of face coverings in
response to the coronavirus pandemic in Orem, Utah, outside Provo. 

DRIVERS AND BARRIERS OF MILITIA ACTIVITY

While militia activity has been reported in at least 34 states and
Washington, DC since late May 2020, there are specific locations at
heightened risk of militia activity during the upcoming election
period and its immediate aftermath. These assessments are made based
on trends in the data and information collected by ACLED and
MilitiaWatch, as well as by taking into account a variety of drivers
and barriers to militia activity. 

For example, locations that have seen SUBSTANTIAL ENGAGEMENT IN
ANTI-CORONAVIRUS LOCKDOWN PROTESTS are at heightened risk. This stems
from the direct link between state authority and the imposition of
such restrictions, which challenges the ideals of many of the groups
introduced above. These protests also serve as crucial
network-building events for right-wing activists to re-activate for
other protests and counter-demonstrations.

Also at risk are places where militias might have PERCEPTIONS OF
‘LEFTIST COUP’ ACTIVITIES. While ‘leftist coup’ activities are
poorly defined among armed movements, they can be understood as fear
of organized left-wing activism against right-wing activity. Protests
organized by and around BLM, or places where anti-BLM activists may
fear Antifa activity, are also at a heightened risk of militia
activity. Leaders of militias often refer to BLM activists as
“Marxists” (The Atlantic, November 2020
[[link removed]]).
It is important to note that the ‘leftist coup’ phenomenon is not
founded in any real detectable dynamics, and appears to rather be
related more to endemic paranoia among many of the armed militias of
the US. 

Spaces where militias have been active in setting up RECRUITMENT
DRIVES OR HOLDING TRAINING FOR MEMBERS are also at high risk. Even if
militias are not engaging in demonstrations, for example, such
organization around recruitment and training indicates a highly
mobilized contingency that can be easily activated. Evidence of these
events likely speaks to much greater preparedness training aimed at
both response to protest movements and a potential escalation around
the election. Training events also serve to reify group identity and
membership by placing individual members in situations in which they
train to work together as a unit and further normalize their political
views in conversation with ‘like-minded’ individuals. Such
information is notoriously difficult to track, however. Some groups,
for example, may claim to train every other weekend, but unless
researchers at MilitiaWatch or ACLED can find confirmation of such
training actually occurring, it is not coded, per ACLED methodology.
Similarly, a great deal of organizing of such events occurs on the
individual-to-individual level; this makes tracking such information
across all militias by researchers and journalists nearly impossible.
When such information around recruitment and training can be verified,
it is recorded by researchers at MilitiaWatch or ACLED and is included
in the ACLED dataset; this means that such information is almost
surely underreported in the data and should be assumed to be a
conservative estimate.6 [[link removed]] 

In spaces where militia members cultivate PERSONAL RELATIONSHIPS WITH
POLICE OR LAW ENFORCEMENT, there is likely to be increased militia
activity. A FRIENDLY ATTITUDE BY LAW ENFORCEMENT TOWARDS MILITIA
PRESENCE OR ACTIVITY has been seen at protests across the US (The
Intercept, 19 June 2020
[[link removed]]).
These relationships are fostered for multiple reasons, including in
contexts where police presence is limited due to staffing shortages
(i.e. retirements, resignations). In such cases, the likelihood that
police may welcome the ‘extra help’ in ‘keeping the peace’ is
expected to bolster militia activity. 

In line with scholarship around election violence and unrest, militia
activity is expected to be higher in competitive spaces — such as
in SWING STATES. In election violence studies, different groups and
agendas shape the risk and geography of violence at key stages in the
election cycle. In the pre-election cycle, armed groups may operate in
conjunction with the incumbent’s party to repress opposition
candidates and supporters. In these spaces, the objective is to alter
the narrow margins of victory in favor of ‘their’ candidate. For
example, there has been increasing engagement by right-wing militias
in conjunction with pro-Trump rallies — such as at the pro-Trump
caravan demonstration, which devolved into violence engaging with
supporters of the BLM movement, involving the Proud Boys, III%ers, and
Patriot Prayer, in Portland, Oregon on 29 August. During the election
period, armed groups may try to monitor polling centers, potentially
stifling voters. Multiple reports detail the fear and alarm of
officials and voters at the prospect of armed groups showing up to
polling centers on Election Day (Business Insider, 12 October 2020
[[link removed]]).
Statements issued by militia groups and their members, such as Stewart
Rhodes, the leader of the Oath Keepers, that militias would “be out
on Election Day to protect people who are voting” (LA Times, 10
October 2020
[[link removed]])
reinforce those fears. Post-election, these groups will pivot their
focus to vote counts. Activity involving armed groups in such contexts
is often pinned to the margins of election results, especially if
their preferred candidate does not win. Claims by members of groups
like the Proud Boys that “if Trump doesn’t get re-elected … is
when you’re going to see a civil war” are particularly worrying
(BET, 12 October 2020
[[link removed]]).
Rhetoric from President Trump suggesting that the election could be
‘rigged’ adds further fuel to this fire (Financial Times, 12
October 2020
[[link removed]]; New
York Times, 15 October 2020
[[link removed]]; NBC,
15 October 2020)
[[link removed]]. 

STATE CAPITALS AND ‘PERIPHERY’ TOWNS also remain important
potential inflection points for violence, as they provide a natural
coalescence point, especially in more rural and suburban areas that
have been particularly conducive to the foundation and regular
activities of militia groups. Medium-population cities and suburban
areas with centralized zones — such as parks, main streets, and
plazas — also serve as locations of major gravitational pull. These
locations are potentially fertile grounds for violence from the groups
identified in this report. This is especially true in contexts where
groups are able to draw from a large population outside of the primary
location, and in places that can be easily accessed from these
hinterland and suburban regions. 

Barriers to militia activity, meanwhile, can include locations with an
overwhelming left-leaning population and/or large populations
unsupportive of militias. Within these parameters, a location like
Albany, New York would be more likely to see violence related to the
right-wing armed movements we have identified, while New York City
would remain less likely. 

STATES AT RISK OF MILITIA ACTIVITY

Taking these drivers and barriers into account, capitals and
peripheral towns, as well as  medium-population cities and suburban
areas with centralized zones, in GEORGIA, MICHIGAN, PENNSYLVANIA,
WISCONSIN, and OREGON are deemed to be at highest risk of increased
militia activity in the election and post-election period.
Meanwhile, NORTH CAROLINA, TEXAS, VIRGINIA, CALIFORNIA, and NEW
MEXICO are found to be at moderate risk.

STATES AT HIGHEST RISK

GEORGIA

Georgia is a swing state in both the presidential election — in
which polls place Trump and Biden virtually neck and neck (New York
Times, 16 October 2020
[[link removed]])
— as well as two senate races.7
[[link removed]] Private groups are barred from
“forming themselves together as a military unit or parade or
demonstrate in public with firearms” according to Georgia law
(Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 15 October 2020
[[link removed]]),
yet a number of militias have been active across the state in recent
months. These include splinters of the Three Percenters (III%ers) —
including national splinters like the III% Security Force and the III%
American Brotherhood of Patriots as well as local splinters like the
Georgia III% Martyrs8 [[link removed]] — and
groups such as the Georgia Militia, the 229 Militia, and the NFAC. 

Demonstrations associated with the BLM movement have made up the
majority  — 61% — of demonstration events in Georgia since the
killing of George Floyd in late May. These demonstrations spiked
shortly after Floyd’s murder, and again shortly after the killing of
Rayshard Brooks in mid-June in Atlanta. Brooks, a Black man, was shot
and killed by police after being confronted for sleeping in a car
outside of a fast food restaurant; authorities claim Brooks took an
officer’s taser and ran away, when they opened fire, shooting him in
the back. 

Demonstrations have also become increasingly partisan, with a number
involving militias, both for and against the BLM movement. For
example, on 4 July, about 100 to 200 people from the NFAC marched in
Stone Mountain Park in Stone Mountain, outside Atlanta, to protest
systemic racism and white nationalism. Concurrently, other groups,
including the Georgia III% Martyrs, looked on. Stone Mountain Park 
is home to the largest Confederate memorial in the country. Meanwhile,
on 15 August, several dozen members of III%ers groups, many armed and
carrying Confederate battle flags, demonstrated in Stone Mountain in
support of keeping Confederate symbols in the city and to show their
support for President Trump. They were met with anti-racist and Antifa
demonstrators who held a counter-protest. Other groups, including the
NAACP, and far-left anarchists and socialists, some of them heavily
armed, also participated in the demonstration, many wearing BLM
shirts. After hours of shouting and the burning of a Confederate flag,
the event devolved into scuffles and pepper spraying amongst the
demonstrators, with minimal serious injuries reported. Police, backed
by a SWAT team and the Georgia National Guard, intervened and
dispersed demonstrators from both sides. In another example several
weeks later, on 3 September, about two dozen people gathered near the
courthouse in downtown Dublin, two hours southeast of Atlanta.
Protesters demonstrated against the city’s Confederate monument,
holding BLM signs. They were met with counter-protesters holding flags
supporting President Trump, which included some militia members who
arrived due to a call to action by the III% Security Force. 

In addition to demonstrations associated with the BLM movement,
protests related to the coronavirus pandemic are also reported across
Georgia. The state has faced persistent tensions over the coronavirus
response. In July, Democratic Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms was
sued over her executive order requiring people to wear masks in the
city by Republican Governor Brian Kemp, who alleged that her policy
violated his executive order which ‘strongly encouraged’ yet did
not mandate mask-wearing in the state (NPR, 28 July 2020
[[link removed]]).
Kemp eventually dropped the lawsuit against Bottoms after
judge-ordered mediation. Since mid-September, the proportion of
demonstrations in Georgia directly related to the coronavirus pandemic
has been increasing. The largest percentage of these have involved
teachers, students, and parents around the reopening of schools.
Georgia was one of the first states to reopen schools — a process
that was marred by reports of thousands of students and staff being
forced to quarantine after exposure to the coronavirus (Newsweek, 14
August 2020
[[link removed]]).
Militia members have demonstrated to express disapproval of
coronavirus restrictions, though most have so far remained peaceful.
In early September, for example, about 20 people, including some who
claimed to be members of a militia, gathered outside of the Gordon
County Courthouse in Calhoun, an hour northwest of Atlanta, expressing
aggravation over the pandemic, amongst other concerns.

Militias have also engaged in other activities, outside of
demonstrations, in the state. At least five training exercises and at
least three recruitment drives have been held by militias in Georgia
in recent months. For example, on 8 August, about 13 people from the
Georgia Security Force III% attended a field training exercise,
featuring target practice in the woods. On 22 August, the 229 Militia9
[[link removed]] hosted a recruitment event in
Quitman, southern Georgia.

These activities come at a time when law enforcement is stretched
thin. In September, department records suggested that resignations
from the Atlanta Police Department had doubled in the three months
prior (The Center Square, 6 September 2020
[[link removed]]),
with about 140 officer resignations, a 75% increase relative to the
previous year (Washington Post, 18 September 2020
[[link removed]]).
As of 10 October, it has been over two weeks since ACLED has recorded
law enforcement engaging demonstrators in Georgia, despite continued
protests across the state. Since the start of the summer, involvement
by state forces in demonstrations has been limited. In this context,
militias may be compelled to ‘step up,’ with groups making
statements indicating that “if the police can’t handle it, we will
step in” (Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 15 October 2020
[[link removed]]).
In June, for example, members of the Georgia III% Martyrs claimed in
their voice communications to one another to have ‘stood with
police’ against protesters associated with the BLM movement in
Morrow, outside Atlanta. In mid-September, the Georgia III% Martyrs
provided security for Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler (engaged in a
Senate race) and House of Representatives candidate Marjorie Taylor
Greene in Ringgold, northern Georgia.

MICHIGAN

Like Georgia, Michigan is a swing state in both the presidential
election as well as in Senate elections for the seat of incumbent
Democrat Gary Peters. The state has made headlines following the
foiled kidnapping attempt, and possible assassination attempt, of
Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer on 8 October. The FBI has charged
and arrested a number of men, including members of the local Michigan
Wolverine Watchmen militia,10 [[link removed]] who
had met repeatedly over the summer for firearms training, combat
drills, and explosives practice. Militias have been active across the
state, including the Proud Boys, the Michigan Liberty Militia,11
[[link removed]] and the Michigan Home Guard.12
[[link removed]] In light of this activity,
tensions run high. Recent reports note that Black gun ownership is at
an “all-time high” and continues to rise over concerns of racial
violence (Atlanta Black Star, 15 October 2020
[[link removed]]). 

Also like Georgia, since mid-September, the proportion of
demonstrations directly related to the coronavirus pandemic has been
on the rise. Michigan experienced some of the earliest reopen
protests. In April, hundreds of protesters, some armed, gathered
inside the state capitol in Lansing as lawmakers discussed an
extension of Governor Whitmer’s request to extend emergency powers
in response to the pandemic (Guardian, 30 April 2020
[[link removed]]).
The demonstrators protested against Whitmer’s stay-at-home mandate,
which had been extended in response to rising COVID-19 cases (BBC, 1
May 2020 [[link removed]]).  

In addition to pandemic-related protests, demonstrations associated
with the BLM movement have also been prevalent. Approximately 73% of
all demonstrations in Michigan since Floyd’s killing have been
associated with the BLM movement. The Proud Boys are the most active
group in the state, engaging in a number of demonstrations associated
with the BLM movement. On 6 June, for example, while over 2,000 people
protested in Traverse City, northwest Michigan, in support of the BLM
movement, the Proud Boys held a counter-protest in support of the
Second Amendment. On 15 August, members of the Proud Boys demonstrated
in support of police in Kalamazoo, visibly armed with a variety of
weapons. A counter-protest was held by anti-fascists in support of the
BLM movement. The demonstration resulted in physical fights between
the demonstrators before police arrived, using pepper spray and
arresting some protesters. On 17 September, protesters including the
Proud Boys amongst other militias, showed up armed and wearing plate
carriers in Lansing to protest against gun control measures.

In Michigan, there have been reports of resignations and suspensions
of police chiefs, like the resignation of Lowell Police Chief Steve
Bukala (Mlive, 5 June 2020
[[link removed]])
or the suspension of Detroit-area police chief Robert Shelide (Detroit
News, 16 June 2020
[[link removed]])
both in June. As of mid-October, there have been no reports of law
enforcement engagement in demonstrations in over either weeks, and
involvement by government authorities in demonstrations has been
limited to under 5% of demonstrations since the start of the summer.
When police have engaged in demonstrations, however, they have used
force — such as firing less-lethal weapons like tear gas, rubber
bullets, and pepper spray or beating demonstrators with batons — at
least 65% of the time.  

Armed vigilantes have filled this gap in some instances. On 12 June,
for example, while hundreds of people gathered in Lambertville, an
hour outside Detroit, in association with the BLM movement to protest
against an owner of a gun store for racist comments made on Facebook,
a number of armed community members were present on the roof of the
gun store to ‘keep the peace’ and to make sure that no looting or
property destruction took place.

PENNSYLVANIA

Pennsylvania is integral to the 2020 election, with more electoral
votes than its other competitive swing state counterparts. Both
presidential candidates recognize the importance of the state and have
spent significant time there in recent weeks. Militias including the
Proud Boys, Boogaloo Bois, AmCon, CDF, LFM, Mountain Top Watch,13
[[link removed]] Pennsylvania Volunteer Militia,14
[[link removed]] Domestic Terrorism Response
Organization,15 [[link removed]] and Carlisle Light
Infantry Militia16 [[link removed]] have seized the
opportunity to bolster their activity as well, especially as partisan
protests have spiked. For example, earlier this month, the Proud Boys
were present at a rally in Philadelphia organized by Refuse Fascism
that was meant to educate people about the militia. The rally came in
the aftermath of comments made by President Trump during the first
presidential debate in which he told groups like the Proud Boys to
“stand back and stand by” (CBS News, 30 September 2020
[[link removed]]).

Militias in the state continue to form and recruit. In early August,
the CDF (more information above) was formed in Pennsylvania with an
agenda to train American civilians for potential combat. In late
September, the Mountain Top Watch Militia held a recruitment event in
Mountain Top, half an hour outside Scranton, home town of presidential
candidate Joe Biden.

Militias have countered demonstrations associated with the BLM
movement on a number of occasions. For example, in July, in Manheim,
an hour and a half west of Philadelphia, during a march in support of
the BLM movement, the Pennsylvania LFM staged a counter-protest. In
addition to showing up in opposition to protests associated with the
BLM movement, the group supports the Back the Blue movement for police
and law enforcement. In July,  for example, people staged a protest
march at a rally in Philadelphia, which was attended by Vice President
Mike Pence in support of the Back the Blue movement. A number of
members of the Proud Boys harassed counter-demonstrators who were
present in support of the BLM movement, and later attended the Back
the Blue ‘after-party,’ together with police officers. In
September, Proud Boys were again present in Philadelphia at another
Back the Blue rally, months following the rally with Vice President
Pence.

Tensions stemming from police conduct are not novel to Pennsylvania,
and it has had a wave of protests calling for an end to police
brutality. Last year, leaked reports of bigoted social media posts by
police — thousands of racist, Islamophobic, and offensive posts on
Facebook — were met with outrage (New York Times, 3 June 2019
[[link removed]]).
Seventy-two Philadelphia police officers were pulled from the street
and put on administrative duties while facing investigation (New York
Times, 20 June 2019
[[link removed]]);
many were fired. In 2020, “nearly all of those officers are
appealing their discipline through the police union’s arbitration
process — even those who voluntarily left the department rather than
face termination” (Billy Penn, 30 June 2020
[[link removed]]).
Since the start of the summer, police have engaged in 5% of
demonstrations in Pennsylvania, and 10% of demonstrations in
Philadelphia. Of those, police used force over half of the time, both
across the state as well as specifically in Philadelphia. On 1 June,
for example, hundreds of demonstrators in support of the BLM movement
were trapped in an embankment and tear gassed (Philadelphia Inquirer,
25 June 2020
[[link removed]]).
The police response was excessive by their own admission, and one
officer was fired and faces assault charges after videos emerged
showing him pepper spraying demonstrators directly in the face while
they were kneeling.

Meanwhile, militias have taken it upon themselves to take up arms to
‘maintain law and order.’ In June, for example, while supporters
of the BLM movement, including the Essex County Sheriff, staged a
protest in Elizabethtown against police brutality, armed
counter-protesters from the Domestic Terrorism Response Organization
and the Carlisle Light Infantry were present, both on the streets as
well as overlooking from rooftops. In July, the LFM patrolled a
protest associated with the BLM movement in Mifflintown, central
Pennsylvania, to ‘prevent violence’ between counter-demonstrators.
They came again in September, near a protest associated with the BLM
movement, to ‘protect’ the courthouse and to again ‘prevent’
or  ‘de-escalate’ any violence. In July, armed members of the
Pennsylvania Volunteer Militia ‘watched over’ a protest associated
with the BLM movement, which was against the arrest of a local Black
man who had been tasered by police the day prior, in Wyomissing, an
hour northwest of Philadelphia. The militia members stated that they
were there “to protect the borough if the protests became violent”
(WITF, 27 July 2020
[[link removed]]).
That same month, members of the Pennsylvania Volunteer Militia, the
Boogaloo Bois, and the Proud Boys gathered in Gettysburg to
‘protect’ Civil War monuments and the flag after rumors of an
“Antifa flag burning” spread on conservative information channels,
despite the fact that no flag burners turned up.

WISCONSIN

Wisconsin is a crucial swing state in the 2020 election, and was
thrust into the spotlight in late August after reports that teenager
Kyle Rittenhouse had killed two demonstrators and injured a third in
Kenosha. Rittenhouse came to Kenosha in response to a ‘call to
action’ on Facebook by the Kenosha Guard to ‘protect lives and
property’ against demonstrators associated with the BLM movement,
demonstrating in the aftermath of the police shooting of Jacob Blake.
Despite murdering two people in public, Rittenhouse was not detained
at the scene. Prior to the shooting that evening, videos
depict police telling armed members of the Kenosha Guard over a
loudspeaker, “We appreciate you guys, we really do” in response to
their vigilantism in ‘standing guard’ and ‘keeping businesses
safe,’ even sharing water with Rittenhouse at one point (Forbes, 26
August 2020
[[link removed]]).
These behaviors have brought attention to the ‘friendliness’ of
police towards militia groups in the state. In addition to the Kenosha
Guard, the Proud Boys, the Boogaloo Bois, and the CDF have also been
active, as have unnamed groups in Madison and Milwaukee. 

Nearly 73% of demonstrations in the state since the end of May have
been associated with the BLM movement. These demonstrations spiked
after George Floyd’s killing by police in neighboring Minnesota in
late May, and then spiked again in the aftermath of the shooting of
Jacob Blake by police in late August. 

In Kenosha, the transition of armed groups into the role of vigilantes
is evident. The night before the Rittenhouse event, a small
unidentified armed group was present in Madison while a demonstration
was being held against police brutality and the shooting of Blake. The
group claimed they were there to ‘prevent’ violence and to
‘ensure safety.’ Since then, in October, an unidentified militia
gathered in Milwaukee to ‘protect homes’ in anticipation of unrest
following the decision by Milwaukee District Attorney not to file
charges against Wauwatosa Police Officer Joseph Mensah, who was
involved in the fatal shooting of Alvin Cole. Cole, a 17-year-old
Black teen, was shot and killed by a police officer earlier this year
outside a mall in Wauwatosa. The officer was responding to a
disturbance call. The police maintain that Cole, armed with a stolen
gun, fired first during the incident and was shot by the officer after
failing to drop his gun (Washington Post, 9 October 2020
[[link removed]]).
A third-party investigative report prepared by former US Attorney
Steven Biskupic revealed that Cole’s gun had gone off accidentally,
hitting Cole in the arm (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 7 October 2020
[[link removed]]).
After that, his gun had become inoperable.

From the start of 2017 through June 2020, at least 246 law enforcement
officers in the state have quit rather than be fired, with another 147
officers quitting prior to the completion of internal affairs
investigations (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 9 September 2020
[[link removed]]).
Since the start of the summer, involvement by state forces in
demonstrations in Wisconsin has been limited, with engagement in only
about 7% of demonstrations. Nevertheless, in cases where authorities
have engaged, they have used force 75% of the time. 

In addition to protests associated with the BLM movement, over 11% of
demonstrations since May in Wisconsin have been fueled by reactions to
coronavirus restrictions. While there have been a number of protests
in support of restrictions or advocating for increased protections,
there have also been numerous protests in opposition to these
measures. For example, last month, protests were held in Eau Claire to
advocate against a proposed ordinance that would increase the power of
local officials to issue health orders and restrictions to prevent the
spread of the coronavirus. The month prior, numerous protests were
held demanding the reopening of schools or opposing the governor’s
mask mandate. In October, Wisconsin was home to “the worst
coronavirus outbreak in America” (Yahoo, 10 October 2020
[[link removed]])
and, with hospital infrastructure strained, a new field hospital was
recently assembled in Madison to address overflow (The Capital Times,
14 October 2020
[[link removed]]).
It remains to be seen if opposition to restrictions will persist if
cases continue to rise.

In addition to presence at demonstrations, militias like the CDF have
engaged in recruitment and training events in the state, such as a
recruitment event in late August and a pistol training event in
September, both held in Oconto county, outside Green Bay. 

OREGON

Oregon has been the site of significant unrest in recent months
involving demonstrators met by armed militias as well as state and
federal forces. Groups such as the Proud Boys, Patriot Prayer,
III%ers, Boogaloo Bois, and the Sons of Liberty17
[[link removed]] have been active in the state
since the start of the summer. Oregon provides a counterpoint to the
type of activity seen in the other states explored thus far. Much of
the Pacific Northwest in general, and Portland specifically, has been
a long-term battleground for struggles between armed and unarmed,
right- and left-wing contingents. This history has led to some of the
country’s most organized and prepared networks of mobilization. The
existence of these networks is likely a major push factor towards the
potential for violence, just as anti-mask protests have been a
catalyzing force in other regions.  

Approximately 71% of demonstrations since the start of the summer in
Oregon have been associated with the BLM movement. A number of these
have been met with engagement by armed groups. For example, on 10
July, in Springfield, outside Eugene, protesters in support of the BLM
movement were met with armed counter-protesters. In August, in Eugene,
a number of demonstrators marched in a protest organized by the United
Communists and Anarchists of Eugene in support of the BLM movement and
in solidarity with an underaged girl who had been violently arrested
by police weeks prior. They were met with armed counter-protesters,
some of whom made Nazi salutes. One protester was assaulted by one of
the counter-demonstrators, which was caught on a livestream. 

In addition to the demonstrations associated with the BLM movement,
demonstrations supporting President Trump have been on the rise since
August. A number of these events have involved armed militias. Most
attention has been on the caravan demonstration in support of
President Trump on 29 August, in which rally-goers included members of
Patriot Prayer, III%ers, and Proud Boys. They used pepper spray and
shot paintball guns at counter-demonstrators rallying in support of
the BLM movement. Videos showed that they also intentionally drove
their trucks through the crowd of counter-demonstrators who attempted
to block the streets. Amidst the clashes, a member of Patriot Prayer,
Aaron ‘Jay’ Danielson, was shot and killed. The following week, in
Salem, pro-Trump supporters armed with rifles, batons, and tear gas,
rallied around the state capitol; opposing groups, including BLM
supporters, were also present and clashed with at least two pro-Trump
supporters who were identified as being affiliated with the Proud
Boys. 

Law enforcement has engaged in nearly a quarter — over 21% — of
all demonstrations in Oregon, and nearly half of all demonstrations in
Portland, with local police supported by federal agents. Within these
demonstrations, authorities have used force over half the time, with
the rate of force rising in the aftermath of the deployment of federal
agents (ACLED, 3 September 2020
[[link removed]]).
Oregon police are stretched quite thin in response: in June, Jami
Resch announced that she was stepping down as chief of the Police
Bureau in Portland (USA Today, 9 September 2020
[[link removed]]).
In August, “the Portland Police Bureau … lost 49 officers to
retirement … more than during all of 2019” (Washington Post, 18
September 2020
[[link removed]]).
That month, a group of more than 100 far-right activists, including
Proud Boys and armed militia members, staged a Back the Blue rally in
support of law enforcement and President Trump in front of the Justice
Center in Portland. People carrying shields with references to the
QAnon conspiracy theory were also present. Right-wing demonstrators
were armed with paintball guns, metal rods, aluminum bats, fireworks,
pepper spray, rifles, and handguns. More than 200 Antifa and BLM
supporters held a counter-demonstration, and some of them had
fireworks and bottles filled with chemical solutions. The two groups
engaged in tense, face-to-face confrontations, pushing, punching,
kicking, and throwing objects at one another. Some pro-police
demonstrators fired paintball guns and deployed pepper spray against
counter-demonstrators, and one was filmed pointing a gun. A member of
the Proud Boys assaulted a journalist, breaking his finger with a
baton. Police were present at the scene, yet did not intervene to stop
the fighting, indicating in a statement released later that those
involved had ‘willingly’ engaged, and that police forces were
stretched too thin. In light of this limited capacity, militia
violence will likely continue and potentially escalate.

STATES AT MODERATE RISK

NORTH CAROLINA

North Carolina is a swing state in both the presidential election as
well as the Senate race for incumbent Republican Thom Tillis’ seat.
“Most paths to the White House go through North Carolina … [and
this is] particularly true for President Trump” (CNBC, 20 October
2020
[[link removed]]).
As such, both candidates have been spending considerable time
campaigning in the state. 

The state also has a history of neo-Confederate and paramilitary
organization, especially around Confederate monuments — seen both
this summer and last year as well. Late last month, for example, a man
was arrested for having a gun at a demonstration held at a Confederate
monument. Proud Boys have been active in the state since the start of
the summer, engaging in protests around child sex trafficking, which
have spiked in connection with the QAnon movement. In other cases,
those armed at protests have not necessarily been linked to a named
militia: in late June, for example, a group of white men showed up
with guns to observe a protest associated with the BLM movement in
Danbury.

In addition to militia presence, there have also been a number of
demonstrations in support of President Trump over the last month,
including caravans and boat parades. Some of these have been linked to
pro-police movements. In late August, for example, pro-police
counter-demonstrators, in opposition to a march associated with the
BLM movement held in Waynesville, waved US and Confederate flags
alongside Trump 2020 banners. Within this increasingly polarized
context, there have also been reports of violent threats, as in
mid-July in Raleigh when two men wearing “Make America Great
Again” hats pulled a gun on a Black woman and her daughter after
racially harassing them.

Cities with medium-sized populations, as well as suburban areas, serve
as natural points of coalescence for militia activity. North Carolina
is home to a number of such cities — including Greensboro and Chapel
Hill — which have historically and contemporarily acted as rallying
points for violence. 

TEXAS

Texas is a swing state in the presidential election, with Democrats
hoping to flip the state for the first time since 1976 (CNN, 12 July
2020
[[link removed]]).
The Senate race as well, in which Democratic challenger MJ Hegar vies
for incumbent Republican John Cornyn’s seat, is also a competitive
race — despite the fact that the race has not made quite the
national headlines that Beto O’Rourke’s challenge of Senator Ted
Cruz’s seat did back in 2016 (Vox, 20 October 2020
[[link removed]]).
O’Rourke’s campaign ushered in a blue wave of support for
Democratic candidates in the state, which has in turn fostered a
right-wing reaction (Independent, 31 October 2018
[[link removed]]).
O’Rourke’s calls for gun reform, both in his Senate campaign and
in his campaign for the Democratic nomination for president which
began late last year, further ignited armed right-wing organizing and
activism (NPR, 12 September 2019
[[link removed]]).

Texas is home to multiple high-gravity locations, as well as major
local and regional organizing that has involved armed militant groups,
such as Belton this summer. In mid-June, hundreds of protesters took
to the streets in Belton in support of the BLM movement and were met
by members of Open Carry Texas and unidentified local militia groups.
While members of Open Carry Texas and the unidentified local militia
groups ended up joining the BLM protesters after discussions between
the two sides, things did not end so hopefully later that month. On 29
June, an armed gathering — including members of Open Carry Texas,
unidentified communal militias, and the Boogaloo Bois — showed up to
‘provide security’ and to ‘protect private property’ at the
daytime rally held in support of the BLM movement. The state capital,
Austin, has attracted activity as well. In early August, armed members
of the Proud Boys and III% Security Force were present during a
demonstration associated with the BLM movement. The week prior, BLM
supporters marching in Austin were met with a car that drove into the
crowd. One of the demonstrators allegedly aimed a gun at the driver
(though this claim has been disputed), resulting in the driver
shooting a demonstrator, who succumbed to his injuries. The shooter is
an Army sergeant who reportedly “fantasized about killing BLM
protesters” (International Business Times, 31 July 2020
[[link removed]]). 

VIRGINIA 

Virginia made headlines back in 2017 when Charlottesville was the site
of the ‘Unite the Right’ rally that left an anti-fascist protester
dead and many others injured (USA Today, 1 July 2019
[[link removed]]).
Many of those involved in the violence had traveled from out of state,
demonstrating the willingness for many to come to Virginia in order to
engage in potentially violent activism (MilitiaWatch, 14 August 2017
[[link removed]]).
While Charlottesville is not particularly likely to be a location for
violence at this moment, other locations in the state face higher
risks, especially as Virginia has been a major target for intra-state
and inter-state right-wing organizing. This year began with a
nationwide gathering in Richmond, organized by a Second Amendment
organization. This event brought substantial militia and far-right
organizations to the city. Earlier this month, members of the Michigan
Wolverine Watchmen arrested for conspiracy to kidnap Governor Gretchen
Whitmer of Michigan were found to have also considered targeting
Virginia Governor Ralph Northam.  

Virginia has continued to be a major target throughout the summer,
with at least nine militias active in recent months, including the
Boogaloo Bois, the Virginia Militia,18
[[link removed]] and the Virginia Knights.19
[[link removed]] One of the most influential
‘Boogaloo’ influencers of the US is also the commander of the
Virginia Militia and the Virginia Knights, and has attempted to align
his group and politics with BLM 757 — an independent, Hampton
Roads-area group that has clashed with other BLM leaders and
progressive organizers, and that is split between traditional and
armed protest in Richmond. In late July, for example, several hundred
people staged a march in Richmond in solidarity with demonstrators in
Portland, Oregon and against the deployment of federal agents. A city
dump truck was set on fire, while rocks, batteries, and other items
were thrown at police officers. Members of BLM 757 participated in the
event and were joined by Boogaloo Bois and representatives of the
Virginia Militia and Virginia Knights. There was some opposition to
the inclusion of Boogaloo Bois among the crowd. Richmond Mayor Levar
Stoney claimed that white supremacists had ‘spearheaded’ the
violence. According to the police chief, some individuals that have
been with the Boogaloo Bois and others involved in or influenced by
the Antifa movement had been identified by police at the
demonstration. Police used pepper spray to disperse the crowds, and
nearly two dozen people were arrested. Earlier this month, a cohort of
about 50 members of armed groups — including the Virginia Militia,
Virginia Knights, Boogaloo Bois, and BLM 757 — gathered to protest
in Newport News after a Boogaloo-affiliated Virginia militia leader,
Mike Dunn, was arrested by police the week prior for open-carrying a
pistol to an event. They showed up to protest against a local
ordinance that bans open carry in public. Dunn, whose gun was
previously confiscated, was given chocolate milk and a PA system by
the police chief, further underscoring friendly ties between law
enforcement and militias. 

CALIFORNIA

California, the home state of Democratic vice presidential candidate
Senator Kamala Harris, is the most populous state in the nation. This
large and diverse population is spread across multiple centers
throughout the state; these centers are spatially discrete, creating
areas of gravity for the rural and exurban areas that surround them.
For example, Oakdale, a town that has been a flashpoint for militia
organizing this summer, is highly representative of a locale that is
conducive to right-wing militia gathering, particularly when it comes
to fears of ‘Antifa’ activism. In early June, a member of the
III%ers attacked a BLM supporter during a demonstration. Three days
later, the California State Militia’s 2nd Infantry Regiment, along
with a dozen conservative groups of people, gathered to oppose a
planned protest in support of the BLM movement. The demonstrators
showed up and stood on the sidewalk for about an hour and then left
after the police chief requested that they leave, particularly when
the BLM demonstration never materialized. Another three days later,
unidentified militia members hired by a local property owner showed up
ahead of rumors of yet another BLM protest that never occurred. 

There are a number of militias present across the state, including the
Boogaloo Bois, who are especially active in the Bay Area. In late May,
during a demonstration associated with the BLM movement in Oakland,
two alleged members of the Boogaloo Bois fired from a vehicle onto
federal officers who were working security at the protest, killing one
and injuring a second. One of the assailants was reported to be an Air
Force sergeant. The following week, in Santa Cruz, an armed clash
ensued between police and a Boogaloo Bois member in which a police
officer was shot dead. In addition to armed clashes with law
enforcement, Boogaloo Bois have also often tried to incorporate
themselves into demonstrations associated with the BLM movement. In
early June, California Highway Patrol detained a person affiliated
with the Boogaloo Bois after he was found with at least one gun bag
while expressing opposition to the ongoing BLM demonstration in
Sacramento.

Other militia activity is more dispersed throughout the state. For
example, in late June, a man, allegedly linked to the KKK, drove into
a group of African-American people at a parking lot in Torrance, near
Los Angeles, speeding towards them after verbally attacking them. In
mid-August, Proud Boys and III%-affiliated groups showed up to a
‘Latinos for Trump’ rally in the Sunland-Tujunga neighborhood of
Los Angeles. A counter-demonstration also took place drawing about 100
people, including a number of people associated with Antifa, as well
as BLM supporters. The demonstrations turned violent when a far-right
supporter pepper sprayed a Black community organizer, while one of the
demonstrators associated with the BLM demonstration tackled the
far-right supporter, who was later hit over the head with a skateboard
and hospitalized. A large group of far-right supporters approached the
BLM group, threatening further physical violence. BLM supporters were
reportedly outnumbered at least two-to-one. A brawl broke out, which
was dispersed after police deployed smoke bombs, resulting in at least
four people needing medical assistance. 

In addition to engagement during demonstrations, training events have
also been reported across the state, especially those involving the
California State Militia, as well as the American Contingency, which
has held pistol training. 

NEW MEXICO

Unlike the other states explored here, New Mexico has been home for
years to ‘border militias,’ including far-right, racist groups.
The groups provide an outlet not only for local armed individuals, but
also for armed activists to travel across state lines to respond to
fears of ‘immigrant caravans.’ For this reason, New Mexico has
drawn from the nearby states of Texas and Arizona repeatedly, and
other militia groups, such as those from Colorado, have previously
traveled to New Mexico to get involved (MilitiaWatch, 12 March 2019
[[link removed]]). 

Albuquerque, which has seen numerous protests associated with the BLM
movement, was the site of the June shooting of a protester by a
right-wing activist affiliated with the New Mexico Civil Guard,20
[[link removed]] who was responding to a ‘muster
call’ to defend a statue (MilitiaWatch, 17 June 2020
[[link removed]]). In July,
hundreds of people, including members of the New Mexico Civil Guard,
religious leaders, and police supporters, gathered in a ‘Protest for
Freedom’ in Albuquerque, at the Civic Place, against the
government’s mask mandate as well as the closure of non-essential
businesses and schools in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, among
other issues. In September, a group of people staged a ‘Black New
Mexico Movement’ rally in Rio Rancho, outside Albuquerque, in
support of the BLM movement, registering people to vote, and
completing the census. Counter-demonstrators — including III%ers, a
New Mexico Civil Guard member, and Cowboys for Trump — armed with
guns, tactical gear, a baton, and a baseball bat, staged a Blue Lives
Matter rally in support of law enforcement and President Trump. Police
kept the groups separate and reported verbal confrontations between
the groups. In addition to engagement in demonstrations, the New
Mexico Civil Guard also engages in training events, such as one held
east of Moriarty, near Albuquerque. Other groups, including the
Boogaloo Bois and III%ers, have also been active in the state in
recent months. 

CONCLUSION 

While none of this assessment should be read as indicating a
deterministic relationship or ensured outcome, we intend for this
report to underscore the extremely high-risk threat environment that
the run up, election period, and immediate aftermath represent. While
it is not certain that one of the identified groups or spaces will
experience violence during this contentious period, the likelihood has
risen. Based on expertise and ACLED data gathered over the summer and
into the fall, the actors analyzed in this report are among the most
prominent and assertive groups in this space, and the locations
identified are among the most likely sites of increased militia
activity. 

For those watching and tracking armed militia movements and their
environments, these trends raise significant concerns for the security
of the election period, how seriously the election results will be
taken, and the response to whichever winner is selected. It is yet
unclear how many of these groups will react, no matter the vote’s
outcome. Does a Trump loss lead to anger at the system and a backlash
against what is deemed a stolen election? Does a Trump victory further
empower groups that see him as a supporter, including through verbal
encouragement ahead of the election? The answers to these questions
are as numerous as they are uncomfortable. 

_To keep track these trends going into the election, check the __US
Crisis Monitor_
[[link removed]]_. Updated
weekly, the data and crisis mapping tool are freely available for
public use._

_*Updated 23 October 2020._

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