What we can trust 2020 election polls to tell us

As Election Day draws closer, Americans are being inundated with polls about the state of the presidential race. And, understandably, many are wondering whether polls can be trusted after Donald Trump’s surprise victory in 2016. A better question to ask may be what, exactly, are we trusting polls to do? If the answer is to predict the future, then trust in polls is misplaced. But if the answer is to reveal the public’s priorities and values, then polls are the best tool.

• Key things to know about election polling in the United States

What the 2020 electorate looks like by party, race and ethnicity, age, education and religion

The profile of the U.S. electorate can change for a variety of reasons. Consider the millions of Americans who have turned 18 and can vote for president for the first time this year, the immigrants who have become naturalized citizens and can now cast ballots, or the longer-term shifts in the country’s racial and ethnic makeup. These and other factors ensure that no two presidential electorates look exactly the same.

• A voter data resource: Detailed demographic tables about verified voters in 2016, 2018
• Latino voters’ interest in presidential race is mixed
• See all Election 2020 research

The challenges of contact tracing as U.S. battles COVID-19

Americans have a variety of views that could complicate large-scale efforts to identify and isolate those with COVID-19. Majorities of U.S. adults say they would be at least somewhat comfortable or likely to engage with some parts of contact tracing programs, but only 48% of U.S. adults would be likely to engage with all three key steps – speaking with a public health official; sharing whom they have been in contact with and where they have been; and quarantining if advised to do so.

• Key findings about Americans’ views on COVID-19 contact tracing
• See all COVID-19 research

Most parents of K-12 students learning online worry about them falling behind

Most parents of students in K-12 schools express concern about their children falling behind because of disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Parents of K-12 students who are getting only in-person instruction are the most likely to say they are very satisfied with the way their children’s school is handling instruction: 54% say this, compared with 30% of those whose children are getting online instruction only and 27% of those whose children are getting a mix of in-person and online instruction.

• Americans are divided on whether colleges that brought students back to campus made the right decision

Coronavirus-driven downturn hits newspapers hard as TV news thrives

Newspaper companies have been hit especially hard by financial challenges in 2020. Year-over-year advertising revenue fell by a median of 42% in the second quarter for six publicly traded newspaper companies in our study. Ad revenue for five local TV news companies also fell in the second quarter, but increases in retransmission fees more than made up for the decline.

• Nearly 2,800 newspaper companies received paycheck protection loans, and most were under $150K
• Americans blame unfair news coverage on media outlets, not the journalists who work for them

Both Republicans and Democrats cite masks as a negative effect of COVID-19, but for very different reasons

When Americans are asked to describe in their own words how the COVID-19 outbreak has affected them negatively, no topic divides Democrats and Republicans more than the subject of masks. Some 31% of Democrats who brought up masks did so to express concern about other people not wearing them, while 27% of all mask mentions by Republicans expressed opposition to wearing them.

• Public opinion about coronavirus is more politically divided in U.S. than in other advanced economies

From voter registration to mail-in ballots, how do countries around the world run their elections?

How Americans see U.S. tech companies as government scrutiny increases

From our research