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October 30, 2020

The One-State Election and the Vote Theft Gambit

Also, there are not enough doses of the therapy that could prevent
coronavirus hospitalization

 

People wait in line to apply for mail-in or absentee ballots at the
County Office Building on Tuesday in Pittsburgh. (Steve
Mellon/Pittsburgh Post-Gazette via AP)

**First Ballot**

After nearly two years, thousands of town halls and events, and billions
of dollars, the 2020 presidential election is coming down to two states,
and actually, one state. I know both candidates were in Florida
yesterday
,
and Joe Biden can really wrap the election up early with a win there.
But the entire Democratic ticket is spending the final weekend in
Pennsylvania, because the election hinges on the Keystone state more
than any other.

Pennsylvania is most likely to be the "tipping point" state in a
close election, the state whose control will determine the outcome.
National poll margins don't matter as much as the poll margin in
Pennsylvania, which the 538 forecast
puts at
about five points. That's a meaningful lead but not an insurmountable
one if the polls are off slightly.

And that's why we have this unusually open strategy of trying to
suppress the mail-in vote

in Pennsylvania. It started with trying to suppress the mail, a strategy
that has been successful. In Philadelphia, 42 percent of all first-class
mail is being delivered in longer than five days
,
up from 13 percent in January. Central Pennsylvania has seen their
service deteriorate as well. As we know, the theory was that Democrats
would mail in ballots at higher rates, so a blanket slowdown would be
more favorable to nick off some of the Democratic vote at the margins.

Then there's the effort to stop absentee votes from being counted
before Election Day, which is more of a narrative device to allow Trump
to say he's ahead in the count that night. This proved useful in 2000
to George W. Bush, as being able to say he was ahead in Florida allowed
him to paint Gore as a sore loser for wanting all the votes to be
counted. Delaying the absentee count is state law in Pennsylvania, and
despite the large numbers of such votes this year nothing has been
changed on that front. Local officials can't even open the envelopes
until the morning of November 3.

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Next we have the timing of how late mail-in ballots can be accepted as
legitimate. Republicans want all ballots arriving after 8pm on Election
Day to not count. Democrats wanted and received an extension to November
6. (In California and other states, the ballot needs only to be
postmarked by Election Day to count, which should be the national
standard.) The Supreme Court hasn't yet moved to alter
Pennsylvania's November 6 deadline, but it's almost a trap, as the
Court reserved the right to change the rules after the fact.
Pennsylvania's Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar, told local election
officials to segregate ballots that arrive after 8pm Election Day,
anticipating Supreme Court Calvinball.

In order to intervene, the Court is pushing a radical reinterpretation
of judicial review, substituting themselves as the authority over
elections run by states. They're using one word in the
Constitution-"Legislatures"-to effectively invalidate judicial
review at the state level, and then arrogate it to themselves, in the
name of enabling the legislature's will. It's completely rotten.

Finally there's the garden-variety voter intimidation, filming voters
at drop boxes and early voting sites. This was expected after
Republicans got the go-ahead to send monitors to the polls via a
different court ruling. The story of Trump lawyers mining Instagram

for photos of voting and using them in lawsuits is particularly
outrageous.

There are other tactics as well, like the "naked ballot" issue
(absentee ballots in Pennsylvania have to be sheathed in one envelope
and then mailed in another to count) and signature matching. You know
that Republicans are trying to steal the election because their
politicians are starting to talk about

how Democrats are trying to steal the election.

As ever, Trump has said the quiet parts loud, and this could be part of
his downfall. One thing this very open display of suppression has done
is to make everyone very knowledgeable about voting operations in their
particular states. In Pennsylvania that translates into getting ballots
in early and following the various other steps. To the extent there are
late-arriving ballots they could be more Republican than expected. And
turnout is likely to be much stronger than if one party wasn't
signaling the removal of fundamental rights. You can see the effort to
chip away at the Democratic advantage at the margins, and then call
victory in an attempt to shut down more counting. But you can also see
how it might backfire.

That of course doesn't make voter suppression a trifle. Every other
November we hear Democratic politicians say they have to change laws for
the next election to prevent long lines and threats to the franchise.
This time there does need to be follow through.

**Read all of our Election 2020 news here**

It's A Good Time To Donate!

Pandemic Watch

We hit a new high in coronavirus cases, with over 88,000 yesterday, and
they're coming in from across America
,
not any one cluster. With all those cases, the need for therapies and
ultimately a vaccine are greater than ever, since the current political
leadership is simply unwilling to do the work to mitigate the spread.

We have good and bad news on that front. Monoclonal antibodies really do
seem to work as a therapy to reduce hospital visits; you know, the kind
that President Trump got. But there are only 50,000 doses available
,
not nearly enough to handle the crush of demand. The same president who
saw personally the impact of a life-saving drug has utterly failed at
any policy to expand manufacturing, with all the same tools (the Defense
Production Act, for example) at his disposal. Meanwhile, the vaccine
timeline is slipping

amid completely normal delays and hiccups, making the need for synthetic
antibodies even more acute. This should be Joe Biden's first order of
business if he gets in the White House: make more antibodies.
Meanwhile, the practiced lie that there was ever a stimulus "deal"
to be had between Nancy Pelosi and Steve Mnuchin finally disintegrated
yesterday
.
An entire phalanx of press reported on every alleged move and twist in
the stimulus story, manipulated by both sides of the negotiation into
thinking something real was happening. It was all nonsense.

**Read all of our Unsanitized reports here**

We Really Can't Do This Without You!

**Days Until the Election**

4.

**WATCH FOR UNSANITIZED THIS WEEKEND!**
Check your inbox for our down-to-the-wire election coverage

Today I Learned

* Elizabeth Warren is making a public move

to become Biden's Treasury Secretary. (Politico)

* Meanwhile, progressives are pointing out that Treasury is one of, if
not the key climate position

in the U.S. government. (HuffPost)

* Registered Republicans are closing the gap in early voting

in some states, but if elections turned only on registration we'd know
the outcome going in. (CNN)

* Stephen Miller lays out a restrictionist second-term agenda
.
(NBC News)

* Susan Collins has private equity bankrolling

her (probably doomed) re-election. (ProPublica)

* Fascinating story about Democratic House candidate Sri Preston
Kulkarni and Indian politics
.
(The Intercept)

* How Montana's Democratic candidate for governor bought a Chris
Christie endorsement

on Cameo, sort of. (Washington Post)

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