A message from Pew Research Center President Michael Dimock
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October 29, 2020
** Quarterly Update
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A message from Pew Research Center President Michael Dimock · Subscribe ↗ ([link removed])
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** What we can trust 2020 election polls to tell us
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As Election Day draws closer, Americans are being inundated with polls about the state of the presidential race. And understandably, many are wondering whether polls can be trusted after Donald Trump’s surprise victory in 2016.
A better question to ask may be what, exactly, are we trusting polls to do? If the answer is to predict the future, then trust in polls is misplaced. But if the answer is to reveal the public’s priorities and values – and why people vote the way they do – then polls are the best tool.
Good preelection polls try to get inside people’s heads. They attempt to understand the reasoning behind Americans’ values, beliefs and concerns. They explore how voters are reacting to major events such as the pandemic and economic downturn; how they feel about the candidates and policies; and which factors are motivating them to vote for a particular candidate, or whether to vote at all.
Perhaps the greatest value of surveys emerges after the election. It’s typical for winning candidates to point to the results and claim a mandate based on their interpretation of public will. But while elections are rightly the foundation of our democracy, they are imperfect measures of public sentiment. Not all Americans participate in elections: In 2016, only around 61% of voting-age citizens cast a ballot ([link removed]) . And those who do vote may not like the (often-binary) choices on their ballot – or agree with their candidate on all the issues. Good public opinion polls are a necessary complement to elections to get a representative cross-section of what the entire public thinks, and to be sure the public’s real priorities are registered.
A record share of voters said in a summer survey ([link removed]) that it really matters who wins the 2020 election, and with that high level of engagement comes an understandable desire for certainty. But on the night of Nov. 3, Americans will be searching for hard data that may not exist. Millions of mail-in votes will need to be counted, even as exit polls – which traditionally provide important insights about where an election may be headed – will face unprecedented challenges. As Americans, we need to summon patience, accept the uncertainty of the moment and wait for election results and rigorous polling data to tell us what the voters decided and why.
This is an abbreviated version of a post published here ([link removed]) .
Michael Dimock
President, Pew Research Center
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** The 2020 election ([link removed])
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After a long and chaotic campaign, Americans are approaching the election with uncertainty and anxiety ([link removed]) on multiple fronts. Even more so than usual, Election Day this year will mark the end of one phase of the campaign and the beginning of another ([link removed]) .
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* Amid campaign turmoil, Biden holds wide leads on coronavirus, unifying the country ([link removed])
* Large shares of voters plan to vote a straight party ticket for president, Senate and House ([link removed])
* The changing racial and ethnic composition of the U.S. electorate ([link removed])
* Political divides, conspiracy theories and divergent news sources heading into 2020 election ([link removed])
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** Coronavirus outbreak ([link removed])
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From virtually the beginning of the U.S. coronavirus outbreak, Pew Research Center has chronicled ([link removed]) how the pandemic has shaped public attitudes and behaviors in the United States. We've gained important insights on the pandemic's effects on public life, from politics and economics to social trends and race relations.
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* Most parents of K-12 students learning online worry about them falling behind ([link removed])
* U.S. public now divided over whether to get COVID-19 vaccine ([link removed])
* Economic fallout from COVID-19 continues to hit lower-income Americans the hardest ([link removed])
* Public opinion about coronavirus is more politically divided in U.S. than in other advanced economies ([link removed])
* What lessons do Americans see for humanity in the pandemic? ([link removed])
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** Our latest global research findings ([link removed])
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The pandemic has disrupted ([link removed]) our international survey work in many countries, but other global projects have continued ([link removed]) . In recent months, we’ve explored international public opinion on subjects including the U.S. and China, science and scientists, and the value of international cooperation.
Featured research
* U.S. image plummets internationally as most say country has handled coronavirus badly ([link removed])
* Unfavorable views of China reach historic highs in many countries ([link removed])
* Science and scientists held in high esteem across global publics ([link removed])
* International cooperation welcomed across 14 advanced economies ([link removed])
* Is belief in God necessary for good values? What people in 34 countries say ([link removed])
** Support Pew Research Center
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In times of uncertainty, good decisions demand good data. Please support Pew Research Center with a contribution on the Center’s behalf to our parent organization, The Pew Charitable Trusts.
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