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October 29, 2020

Where State Legislatures Could Flip

Also, the GDP number we all knew was coming but still aren't properly
talking about

 

The state capitol building in Phoenix, Arizona, one of several state
legislatures that could move to Democratic control this year. (Gage
Skidmore/Creative Commons)

**First Ballot**

Ten years ago, a guy who was one of my bosses when I wrote for Salon,
and whose name is so similar that we would be mistaken all the time,
noticed the trend that helped Republicans establish dominance for a
decade. David Daley wrote the book Ratf**ked
, which was about
a secret Republican program to pour money into state legislative races
in the 2010 midterm elections.

The idea was that winning big in the legislatures would give Republicans
the power of redistricting in many states, enabling them to secure
control for a decade by gerrymandering. If they could sustain this
through 2020, they'd get another 10 years of map control, and so on.
It was a path to a permanent Republican majority. And the resounding
Republican victory in 2010 did provide this opportunity.

The permanent majority did not totally come to pass. The House
gerrymander didn't hold, and Democrats regained control in 2018.
Gerrymanders of House seats in Pennsylvania and North Carolina were
struck down by the courts. But in other areas, particularly state
legislatures in Wisconsin and Ohio and elsewhere, the maps did provide
security that Republicans would stay in charge, even if the mood of the
electorate changed.

Democrats have learned this time that they need to compete hard here, to
take advantage of demographic and voter sentiment changes (particularly
in the suburbs) and win big in state legislatures, to either block
unilateral Republican crafting of the maps or gain the power themselves.
The money is finally available for Democrats to compete for these
legislative races, too. A couple sites have highlighted

the states

where control of the legislature is up for grabs. Let's take a look.

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We start in Arizona, where Democrats need just two House seats and three
Senate seats to take over each chamber. Arizona has an independent
redistricting process, but Supreme Court changes raise the possibility
that independent commissions created by ballot initiative could be
struck down. Winning the state legislature would prevent Republicans and
their governor Doug Ducey from getting Supreme Court go-ahead to write
the maps unilaterally.

Like Arizona, Michigan's independent redistricting commission could be
struck down. Democrats need four House seats to flip the chamber; the
Senate is not up this year. Democrats have a shot to flip the partisan
makeup of the state Supreme Court, currently with a 4-3 Republican lean
but with two races on the ballot that would give Democrats control if
they win them. That would give Democrats the advantage should
redistricting maps go to litigation. Democrats could take the Iowa House
with four pickups; there's also an independent redistricting
commission in the Hawkeye State, but if Republicans have unilateral
control, they can just ignore it.

Minnesota has the only split legislature in America. Democrats have the
state House but Republicans have thin 35-32 control of the state Senate.
If Democrats flip two seats, they'd have total control of the
government, and the redistricting maps.

A surprisingly plausible flip is in the Texas House
,
which is currently 83-67 Republican. Fast-changing regions of the state
give the possibility for a pickup of the 9 seats required to give
Democrats control and block a Republican trifecta. Beto O'Rourke
carried a majority of Texas House districts in his 2018 U.S. Senate run.

Slightly less plausible are Democratic takeovers of the Pennsylvania
Senate (5 seats needed) and the Georgia House (16 seats needed). The
maps are pretty strong resistance to this happening, but there have been
significant demographic and ideological changes here. Florida could
conceivably see a Democratic flip of the Senate (currently 23-17
Republican), but only half of the seats are up. North Carolina (29-21
Republican in the Senate and 65-55 Republican in the House) is an
outside shot, though the House is more likely.

In other states, Democrats just want to avoid a Republican
super-majority in the legislature, in some cases to avert vetoes of
Democratic governors. In Kansas, Democrats need 1 House or 3 Senate
seats to break a two-thirds Republican majority and preserve Democratic
governor Laura Kelly's vetoes. Democrats need 2 state Senate seats in
Missouri to stop two-thirds control. Republicans could conceivably gain
supermajorities in Ohio and Wisconsin; in Wisconsin a supermajority
could override Democratic governor Tony Evers, and in Ohio, the key
fights are in the state Supreme Court, which with two victories could
flip to Democratic control.

Republicans are mostly on defense but they may be able to flip
legislative chambers in New Hampshire and Alaska. Joe Biden's
persistent lead in the popular vote, however, gives the potential for a
very good night for Democrats in state legislature, which could persist
through 2030.

**Read all of our Election 2020 news here**

It's A Good Time To Donate!

The October Surprise We Knew About

Today the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that gross domestic
product grew in the third quarter at an annualized rate of 33.1 percent
.
It was on the calendar that they would introduce this figure on this
date for months if not years, and once we learned that GDP in the second
quarter fell 31.7 percent
,
it was obvious that there would be a big bounce back in the third
quarter.

Incidentally, just because the third quarter number is bigger than the
second quarter number doesn't mean we have won back all of the gains
of the pandemic-induced recession. Currently, real GDP is running 3.5
percent below its peak. During the Great Recession, the biggest economic
crisis in nearly a century, GDP was at its depth 4.0 percent below the
peak. It's a small surprise that we're not at a greater depth than
2008 right now (thank savings from the initial stimulus, now rapidly
dwindled, for that), but if you factor in the tremendous inequality seen
in this recession, it's a much worse situation for millions.

All of that, of course, has been completely ignored by the Trump
campaign, which predictably is acting like the pandemic never happened
(why break precedent) in touting the numbers. But this is not
unexpected; we knew GDP would show a big number and that it would show
on this day. It tells you nothing about the management of the economy or
the virus, and given the also predictable fall/winter outbreak, I'm
bracing for the next report.

**Read all of our Unsanitized reports here**

We Really Can't Do This Without You!

Check This Out

Over at the Prospect, we have a great piece from our writing fellow
Marcia Brown
on
immigration lawyers, stressed emotionally and financially after four
years of Trump, and considering leaving the profession. Read it here
.

Also Alex Sammon looks at the prodigious funds being raised

online for Democratic candidates, and posits that big money no longer
has to be chased for Democrats to be competitive in elections. And
Eleanor Eagan surveys Trump's crippling

of the administrative state.

I was on Background Briefing with Ian Masters

talking about yesterday's Big Tech hearing in the Senate, and the
platforms more generally. Listen here
.

**Days Until the Election**

5.

Today I Learned

* The Supreme Court reserves the right

to toss out Pennsylvania votes after the fact. If you're a
Pennsylvanian and still holding onto your ballot, don't drop it in the
mail. (Vox)

* Quite incredible that a major political party's strategy for victory
is open vote suppression

in a tipping point state. (The New Yorker)

* Brett Kavanaugh had to change his opinion

in the Wisconsin voting case because he mucked up a fact about Vermont.
(CNN)

* If you're in the hospital, you can still vote

in most states. (Los Angeles Times)

* Voter signature verification on mail-in ballots

is a minefield. (Los Angeles Times)

* Oh yeah, the voting machine industry is super-consolidated
.
This is in my book Monopolized. (Wall Street Journal)

* The Postal Service stole Tucker Carlson's only copy

of his really good, really and truly, Hunter Biden information. Fire the
postmaster general! (Boing Boing)

* Everyone's passing around this Jon Ossoff takedown

of his Georgia Senate opponent David Perdue during a debate. (Washington
Post)

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