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**OCTOBER 28, 2020**

Kuttner on TAP

What We Will Know Election Night

****

Thanks to the Trumpian Supreme Court, the election outcomes in
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin may well be in doubt next Tuesday night. A
high court ruling has overturned a Wisconsin suit providing for extra
days to count ballots, and a similar one may also happen regarding
Pennsylvania, where Republicans are seeking a Court rehearing to toss
out extra counting days

that the pre-Barrett Court refused to block.

But despite the efforts of Trump's toadies in robes to disqualify
ballots that arrive after Election Day, Biden seems decently ahead in
both states, and could win one or both based on ballots cast and counted
by Election Day.

Even if those swing states are in limbo as of Tuesday midnight, there
are two fallbacks, North Carolina and Florida. At this writing, Biden
seems narrowly ahead in both, and these states will report their results
by election night.

Here's the arithmetic
.
If Biden wins the predicted swing states where he's well ahead
(Michigan, Minnesota, Arizona, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Maine-02),
plus the ones regarded as safe, that gets him to 260 electoral votes,
without Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.

He needs only one of four other states to get to 270 votes or more. That
could be North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. So while
we may go to bed not knowing who won, Biden may actually win the
election on Election Day.

~ ROBERT KUTTNER

Follow Robert Kuttner on Twitter

Robert Kuttner's latest book is
The Stakes: 2020 and the Survival of American Democracy
.

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Unsanitized, Election Edition: Following the (Cancelled) Money

Where campaigns are spending big or pulling out can tell you a lot. This
is The Election 2020 Daily Report for October 28, 2020. BY DAVID
DAYEN

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