View this email in your browser

Unsanitized: Election Edition, for Oct. 26, 2020

Early Turnout Gives No Indication of the Likely Result

You're going to have to rely on the polls to make sense of the race.

 

Voters queue outside Madison Square Garden in New York City on the first
day of early voting. (John Nacion/Sipa via AP Images)

**First Ballot**

**According to the latest numbers from Michael McDonald**, a professor
at the University of Florida who has been tracking early voting turnout
, 59.4
million Americans have voted in the 2020 election already. Over 40
million of those have been mail-in ballots, and another 19 million-plus
in person at early voting sites. Less than half of those votes can be
sorted by voter registration data (some states don't keep track, and
others don't have partisan voter registration), but for those that do,
the breakdown of those who have voted is: 49.1 percent Democratic, 27.9
percent Republican, and 23 percent no party affiliation or third
parties.

This already blows away the 47 million who voted early

in 2016, with a week and a day to go. And that tells you approximately
nothing about the outcome of the presidential election or any other race
on the ballot.

We already knew this would be a record year for early turnout. There's
a pandemic on; nobody wants to be in crowded lines on Election Day. Many
states loosened their mail-in balloting requirements and some sent
ballots to every registered voter. The threat of delays in the U.S.
Postal Service has people turning in those mail-in ballots very early,
either through the mail or in secure dropboxes in the states. This was
all known information prior to balloting beginning.

What we don't know is whether this is pulling forward reliable voters
who would have shown up on Election Day anyway, or whether the
relatively easier access is bringing out new people to vote. You just
can't get to that level of granularity beyond anecdote. A Democratic
advantage in the early vote can be offset by a Republican advantage in
the Election Day vote. (In some states, like Florida, there's been a
Democratic

**early** early vote and a Republican

**later** early vote
.
Republicans gained on the in-person early vote period after Democrats
had the advantage in mail-in ballots.)

There are definitely

**some**impressions you can gather from early turnout. One of the most
potentially exciting is early turnout among young people. There we see
youth turnout blowing away the 2016 numbers
.
At least some of those voters were not eligible in 2016, so that
genuinely represents additions to the vote. And all polling shows that
young people are voting overwhelmingly Democratic. Yet while these
numbers are big, if the Election Day youth turnout numbers are
significantly down, you could see this offset.

We Depend on Your Donations

The early vote numbers in particular areas may sound encouraging. We saw
93,000 turn out

on the first day in New York City; at least half of all mail-in ballots

requested have been cast in Pennsylvania; some suburban counties in
Texas are tracking already at nearly half of all registered voters

turning out. That's great for now, but again, not yet clear what it
will mean in the final analysis.

There are 1 million new registered voters

in Georgia, out of 7.6 million voters registered overall. So around 13
percent of the electorate is brand new. Nearly two-thirds of those new
voters are people of color. Also excellent, but we don't know and
won't know, precisely, how many of those new voters turned out and who
they turned out for.

What we can say about early turnout is that banking votes makes it
easier for parties to focus on getting the rest of them out to the
polls. You would definitely rather have votes in the can than trying to
get people in late. Election Day turnout often hinges, rather sadly, on
the weather. So having votes in hand is a hedge against rain or snow,
and a better position to be in for get-out-the-vote operations. But to
really make a prediction about the outcome of the election, you can't
just extrapolate from the early vote, which could reflect a burst of
energy for Joe Biden or just the known reality from polling that
Democrats are more skittish about the coronavirus than Republicans, and
therefore more likely to seek out safer voting options.

For predictions you have to go back to the polls. And though Democratic
voters want to look far, far away from that, ever-mindful of the 2016
outcome, the polls do show a larger and more stable lead for Biden this
time than for Hillary Clinton in 2016, with district-level data
consistent with the state picture (that wasn't the case four years
ago). The trendline expectation has gone up for Biden

consistently for two months. "I've seen... almost enough," said noted
enough-seer David Wasserman
on Sunday.

You may not trust it, but that's a reasonable claim. Being satisfied
because of early turnout statistics is not.

Support Independent, Fact-Checked Journalism

**Quote of the Day**

**"We're not going to control the pandemic,"** said White House chief
of staff

Mark Meadows on Sunday, which is why he's unlikely to be chief of
staff come January. It's almost like Meadows focus-grouped what would
be the worst possible message a week before the election ends. Trump
saying in the debate that we would "have to learn to live with" the
virus approaches this level of political malpractice, but somehow this
presents as worse. The Biden campaign pounced
,
and rightly so.

**Read all of our Election 2020 news here**

It's A Good Time To Donate!

Pandemic Watch

* We keep setting record highs

for case counts, I'm assuming we'll go over 100,000/day within
weeks. * No economic relief

in sight. * Just as bad on the case levels in Europe
,
which actually does signify the relative nature of countries "doing a
good job." Of course, Europe's on its second wave and the U.S. is on
its third. * The Trump administration wanted to give early vaccine
access to mall Santas

as part of an ad campaign. Really! * Capitalism after the pandemic
. *
Here's a relief spending tracker
from the Project on Government Oversight.

**Read all of our Unsanitized reports here**

We Really Can't Do This Without You!

**Days Until the Election**

8.

Today I Learned

* Mike Pence's top aides have COVID and he's still campaigning
.
He's even still going to preside over the Senate session to confirm
Amy Coney Barrett tonight. (HuffPost)

* The October surprise that was listed on the calendar was the 3rd
quarter GDP release on October 29
. It's going
to show 30 percent-plus growth, but that's off the historic drop in
the previous quarter. (Vox)

* The Trump executive order that could cripple an incoming Biden
administration
.
(

**The Independent**)

* Nancy Pelosi will seek re-election

as House Speaker. (

**Washington Post**)

* The most expensive ballot measure in history, Prop 22 in
California-which would create a special labor law for Uber and
Lyft-has the polling trajectory of a ballot measure that loses
.
(

**Los Angeles Times**)

* Laid-off workers now making beating Trump their full-time job
.
(HuffPost)

* Lou Dobbs hates Lindsey Graham
,
is actively campaigning to oust him. (The Wrap)

**Click the social links below to share this newsletter**

 

[link removed]

 

[link removed]

 

[link removed]

 

[link removed]

 

[link removed]

 

[link removed]

YOUR TAX DEDUCTIBLE DONATION SUPPORTS INDEPENDENT JOURNALISM

Copyright (C) 2020 The American Prospect. All rights reserved.
_________________

Sent to [email protected]

Unsubscribe:
[link removed]

The American Prospect, Inc., 1225 I Street NW, Suite 600, Washington, DC xxxxxx, United States