**
------------------------------------------------------------
* TALKING POINT, BY DR STEVE DAVIES
* US ELECTION SPECIAL
* SCHEER LUNACY...
* IN THE MEDIA
* MARK ON (VIRTUAL) TOUR
* YOU'RE INVITED

This week, as well as giving us a masterclass in how not to do political communication, Boris Johnson has also managed to unite most of Manchester against him.

The government has of course put Greater Manchester into tier 3 levels of controls, after an argument with the local mayor, Andy Burnham, not so much about the principle as the amount of additional financial help for the region to meet the costs of measures that other parts of the country are not facing.

The situation in Manchester is serious and deteriorating rapidly so some kind of tightening of social distancing is appropriate. However, this will come with costs, which it is fair to compensate for given that the benefits, if any, will be national. Given that talks broke down over £5 million, a miniscule sum in the context of the money the government is laying out at present, the political incompetence is remarkable.

The deeper point is this: the real failure and problem is the continued lack of an effective Track, Trace, Isolate system (TTI). Absent that measures like the ones taken or a national ‘circuit breaker' lockdown are unlikely to have much effect, certainly not on a lasting basis. They will certainly add to the economic pain though and will almost certainly have to be repeated, given the pandemic is going to last for at least 18 – 24 months.

This all highlights the ineffectuality of the British state and systems of public administration, not least the NHS which despite great efforts has not displayed the kind of nimbleness and flexibility found in Germany and which we sorely need. Moreover, the lack of clarity on the government’s part is striking – nobody knows what is happening and the suspicion grows that ministers do not either.

They need to accept that there will be no swift return to pre-Covid normality and plan for a longer, two year process.

[link removed]

We know that the British state is one of the most centralised anywhere in the developed world, something that has not changed with devolution or the creation of city regions by George Osborne. This was highlighted in the discussion on Live With Littlewood, that looked at the tensions between national policy and local autonomy in the light of the Welsh Government’s decision to enforce a ‘fire break lockdown’ and the imposition of Tier 3 controls on Greater Manchester. You can catch up on the show here ([link removed]) .

Clearly with a national (or indeed global) crisis such as Covid there is a need for a national strategy and decisions being taken at the national level. However, these need to be enforced at a local level and when higher costs are imposed on some areas to bring wider benefit it is proper to assist them (In that context attracting all sorts of bad press for just £5 million is remarkable political incompetence).

We now have the worst of both worlds, as the commentators on the show pointed out, with decisions being taken nationally but carried out ineffectually and in a very confusing manner in which nobody knows what rules are or what is going on (including one fears the ministers responsible). The problem is made worse by the centralised and top-down nature of the NHS which means that, despite great efforts, it does not have the needed flexibility and nimbleness.

The contrast with Germany, with a decentralised healthcare system and properly structured federalism, is remarkable. The strategic problem is that the entire political class is desperate to find a quick solution that will mean a swift return to normality. Quite simply, this is not going to happen, as has been warned from the outset. One result has been the failure to create an effective TTI system, absent which NO policy will be effective.

The crisis has revealed for all the structural weaknesses of the British state and the need for reform.

Dr Steve Davies
Head of Education, Institute of Economic Affairs
LIVE WITH LITTLEWOOD US ELECTION SPECIAL

Will Donald trump the Democrats? Or is Joe biding his time?

[link removed]

We’ll be discussing the disunited state of America in a Live with Littlewood US election special this Thursday (October 29th) at 6.30pm.

What do the polls tell us? Will Trump win a second term? What would a Biden administration look like? And is America braced for a violent reaction to the result?

We’ll be discussing all this and more with guests including The Spectator’s Kate Andrews; pollster Patrick Basham of the Democracy Institute; Oliver Wiseman, the US Editor of The Critic and Terry Kibbe, of Washington-based Free the People.
Be sure to join the debate, Thursday at 6.30pm, on our YouTube channel here ([link removed]) .
SCHEER lunacy...

The IEA's Head of Lifestyle Economics Christopher Snowdon has written a new briefing paper for the European Policy Information Center (EPICENTER), which debunks many of the common arguments used by public health bodies against e-cigarettes and vaping.

[link removed]

Christopher responds to a recent report by the EU's Scientific Committee on Health, Environmental and Emerging Risks (SCHEER) on electronic cigarettes.

Chris finds that the SCHEER report appears to be biased against e-cigarettes and regurgitates several already debunked arguments, such as the 'gateway effect' and ‘renormalisation' hypothesis, while it downplays strong evidence showing the e-cigarettes have been a gateway from smoking for millions of people.
You can read the full paper 'A response to the SCHEER preliminary opinion on electronic cigarettes' here ([link removed]) .
IN THE MEDIA

Politics Live... This week, the IEA's Director of Communications Annabel Denham made her debut on BBC Politics Live alongside Bim Afolami MP, Baroness Kennedy QC and Ian Blackford MP. You can catch up here ([link removed]) .

[link removed]

Annabel argued that the principle of the furlough scheme is being undermined by the government's strategy of stop-start lockdown restrictions but questioned whether a strategy of shielding only the elderly and vulnerable would work in practice.

On the topic of Scottish independence, Annabel argued that the over-centralisation of the UK's decision-making powers is impairing economic growth, and that while "we need to decentralise", we also need to "ensure that devolved administrations are responsible for raising their own money and spending it too."

Annabel also spoke to James Whale on talkRADIO about the black hole in Transport for London’s finances, and argued in an article for Reaction ([link removed]) that the ongoing increase in government intervention and public spending will stunt our economic bounceback.

The Great Covid Divide... Christopher Snowdon, the IEA's Head of Lifestyle Economics, wrote a column for The Sun arguing that the campaign for a second lockdown is being ratcheted up by those who have the least skin in the game. The real divide, Chris argued, is between those who have safe jobs and those who don’t.

Chris also discussed his column on talkRADIO with host and executive editor of The Sun, Dan Wootton.

Groundhog day... The IEA responded to the Chancellor's third economic update in a month and the announcement of further financial support for businesses affected by the Covid-19 restrictions.

IEA Economics Fellow Julian Jessop questioned whether the additional Covid-19 restrictions are appropriate but argued there is at least a good economic case for more financial support when businesses are unable to trade as normal.

Looking to the UK's economic outlook, IEA Director General Mark Littlewood warned that the longer we are trapped in this "government support scheme limbo" the more urgent it is for the Chancellor to consider how to ensure a dramatic economic bounceback.

Meanwhile, the IEA’s Head of Media Emily Carver argued on Conservative Home ([link removed]) that recent government policies suggest an acceptance that the economy can be controlled top-down and that the resurrection of old-fashioned Keynesian ideas, which may have been appropriate in the short-term, may prove very difficult to reverse.

Sealing the deal... IEA Academic and Research Director Professor Syed Kamall reacted to the news that the UK has signed a Free Trade Agreement with Japan - the first the UK has struck as an independent trading nation. Syed said:

“Not only does the UK-Japan trade deal offer new opportunities for UK firms to sell more British products and services to Japanese consumers, thereby sustaining and creating jobs, it also makes quality Japanese food and products more affordable for British families."

You can read his full comment here ([link removed]) .

In other news... We are thrilled to report that our 2018 publication on trade, Free Trade and how it Enriches us ([link removed].) , by Prof Donald J. Boudreaux, Professor of Economics, and former chairman of the Department of Economics, at George Mason University in Virginia, USA, and Getchell Chair at George Mason’s Mercatus Center, has received a permit to be published in Iran, and is now available throughout the country.

[link removed].
Our thanks to the Network for a Free Society ([link removed]) for helping us spread our message far and wide. This publication is now available in Italian, French, Indonesian and Swahili.
MARK ON (VIRTUAL) TOUR

While social distancing may have brought our real-life events programme shuddering to a halt, the lockdown has given IEA Director General Mark Littlewood the opportunity to take part in more speaking engagements with students than his diary would usually allow.

[link removed]

This week, Mark spoke to students from the Oxford University PPE society about “Britain’s Bounce back: The Economic Threats and Opportunities of 2021”, which you can watch here ([link removed]) .

This was a great chance to speak to young people about the changes we are likely to see in the coming years, the threats posed by Covid-19 and how to mitigate them, and how to seize the opportunities of Brexit in our post-covid bounce back.

Mark will be taking part in several more virtual student events in the coming weeks, including with Eton School and Durham University.
YOU'RE INVITED

* IEA Webinar: "The Future of UK-China Relations Post Covid-19'

[link removed]

On Wednesday 28th October at 6pm, the IEA will be hosting a webinar on the topic of “The Future of UK-China Relations Post Covid-19.

The panel will be chaired by IEA Academic and Research Director Professor Syed Kamall and will include: David Davis MP; Sir Iain Duncan Smith MP, Damian Green MP and the IEA's Mark Littlewood and Dr Steve Davies.

If you would like to attend, please register a place by following the link here ([link removed]) or alternatively email [email protected] (mailto:[email protected])

* Institute of International Monetary Research Money Annual Monetary Conference

On 28th October, from 1-6pm, the IMMR will be hosting its annual monetary conference, including talks from Charles Goodhart on the ‘Effects of the changing trends in demography and globalisation on inflation’, Lars Christensen on 'The monetary response to a supply-side crisis. Recovery and inflation scenarios in the USA for 2021’, and many more.

Please register to sign up via this link ([link removed]) .

The IMMR will also continue its Money Webinar series with two more sessions in November.

Alberto Musso, of the European Central Bank, will discuss inflation cycles, money cycles and credit cycles on Wednesday, 4th November at 4pm.

And on Wednesday, 11th November at 4pm, the Bank of England’s Ryland Thomas will discuss The Bank of England as Lender of Last Resort in the 19th century.

You can register and find out more here ([link removed]) .

* Sixth form conference: 6th November from 1-6pm with Lorretto School

[link removed]

Every year we hold FREE economics conferences for A-Level and IB students. We work with teachers to create the programme for talks based on the academic syllabus to help prepare students for their exams.

Register here ([link removed]) for the conference where we will be discussing the economics of Brexit, market and government failure, the financial system and more.

You can sign up for any of our planned conferences this term and if you are interested in partnering on a future event please contact Brittany Davis at [email protected].

*Teachers' Seminar: 'Teaching the Syllabus after C-19' on 4th November

Every year the IEA hosts a free to attend seminar for A-Level/IB/Scottish Higher teachers of Economics and related subjects.

The seminar features talks from prominent economists on topical issues and how they relate to the academic syllabus – this seminar will focus on the state of the UK economy after Covid, Labour markets post-coronavirus, and ask if the tide has turned on globalisation.

Sign up for your place now ([link removed]) .

If you have any questions, please email Brittany Davis at [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) , and include the name of the school you teach at.

============================================================

With a little help from our friends...

These are difficult times for every individual and organisation, including the IEA. Understandably, your priorities will be to look after your loved ones, your family, your work or your business.

** ([link removed])

But if you do have a little extra cash available to help the IEA during these uncertain times, your contribution – no matter how small – would be deeply appreciated.

As an educational charity, the work we do work is entirely funded by donations. If you are able to help please click ** here ([link removed])
or contact ** [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]?body=Dear%20Angela%2C)
. Thank you.

And why not get Amazon to donate too? All you have to do is to start shopping on ** [link removed] ([link removed])
and pick the IEA as your chosen charity. The IEA will then receive 0.5% of your spending on most items. Everything else remains the same (and at no additional cost to you).
** Twitter ([link removed])
** Facebook ([link removed])
** LinkedIn ([link removed])

You are receiving this email from the Institute of Economic Affairs
** Unsubscribe ([link removed])
from this list.

© 2020 Institute of Economic Affairs
Institute of Economic Affairs 2 Lord North Street London, London SW1P 3LB United Kingdom

Registered in England 755502, Charity No. CC/235 351, Limited by Guarantee

** Forward ([link removed])
this email to a friend

This email was sent to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected])
why did I get this? ([link removed]) unsubscribe from this list ([link removed]) update subscription preferences ([link removed])
Institute of Economic Affairs . 2 Lord North Street . London, London SW1P 3LB . United Kingdom