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This analysis was put together by NDN’s Simon Rosenberg and Bill McClain of the advocacy group Clean and Prosperous America. We will be providing updates of this data thru Election Day – do check back on both of our sites to get the latest on this important 2020 development.
Young Voters Voting in Large Numbers, Youth Share of Early Vote up 31% Since 2016
In the past few months two respected analysts of youth civic engagement and voting, Tisch College/CIRCLE, and Harvard’s Institute of Politics predicted that, based on their polling of young voters, youth turnout could be very high this election, potentially matching the historic youth turnout in the 2008 elections, according to Clean & Prosperous America.
Early voting data available through the TargetEarly site is finding higher youth early voting rates than in either 2016 or 2018. In their age breakouts, 18-29s, 30-39s, 40-49s are all voting at higher rates than in either of the last two elections, while voters over 50 are seeing their relative voting rates decline. A breakout of some of this data is below. A new CIRCLE study has similar findings.
“If there was any question about whether young people were going to turn out in 2020, the early data suggests we have an answer – young people are highly motivated and are voting in very large numbers this year. While things could change, all the data suggests we are on track to see very high youth turnout in this election, perhaps even record breaking,” said Simon Rosenberg, national political strategist and advisor to Clean & Prosperous America (CaPA).
“Given that Biden is winning about two thirds of young voters right now, a very large youth turnout will help Democrats win elections all across the country. Indeed, it is increasingly possible that Biden could match Obama’s historic 2008 youth turnout rates and strong Democratic performance. It’s a major development in the 2020 election,” said Bill McClain, Research and Marketing Director, Clean & Prosperous America.
Selected 18-29-year-old performance at this point from TargetEarly:
2016
2020
Share of early vote so far
National
7.0%
9.2%
(31% Increase)
Michigan
3.6%
7.9%
(120%)
Texas
6.6%
10.2%
(55%)
Minnesota
7.9%
10.8%
(37%)
Florida
5.2%
7.0%
(35%)
Wisconsin
3.9%
5.1%
(31%)
Georgia
7.5%
9.1%
(21%)
Arizona
7.3%
8.7%
(19%)
North Carolina
8.9%
10.3%
(16%)
Ohio
6.6%
7.6%
(15%)
Nevada
7.7%
8.7%
(13%)
Iowa
8.6%
8.4%
(-2%)
Pennsylvania
15.6%
9.5%
(-39%)
NOTE: Data Current at 9:30am ET on 10/23/2020. New Hampshire is not listed because no 2016 data exists for comparison to 2020. And while PA has seen its share of the youth vote decline this year, the raw vote has increased from 19,000 at this point in 2016 to 112,000 today. It is a reminder of how remarkable it is we are seeing the youth vote share grow in all these states given how many more people are voting this time. Nationally, and in many states, the youth vote is a larger slice of a much larger pie.
- Simon, Georgia, and the rest of the NDN team
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