October 23, 2020: Prior to last night’s presidential debate, 45 million voters had already cast their ballots.[1]
In states that report results by partisan registration, 52% of those early votes have been cast by Democrats, 26% by Republicans, and 22% by others.[1]
Among those casting their early ballots in person, 41% are Democrats and 38% Republican. However, Democrats have a bigger advantage among those voting by mail. Among such voters, Democrats enjoy a 54% to 24% advantage.[1]
Those results are consistent with polling data showing that President Trump leads among voters who plan to vote in person, but former Vice President Joe Biden has a substantial lead among those planning to vote by mail.[2]
As I wrote in a recent column, this could create a confusing result if the election turns out to be very close. If that happens, “the president will have the lead in votes counted on Election Day. Quite possibly, it will be a significant lead in critically important states. Then, every day for several weeks, we will hear the results of the mail-in ballots. And those results will consistently show Biden cutting into Trump’s reported lead (and it will also show Democrats gaining in Senate, House, and state legislative races).[2]
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